DomNH

-SN has begun. 

Yeah, GFS looks like a borderline warning event N of the Pike. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Digging into the 3km NAM rime factors, there is definitely a threat for mixed precip along and just N of Route 2. It has that 2-5 number that is typical of heavily rimed flakes, with true mixed precip values down around the Pike and S. 

The MHT to PWM line and N looks like they're in a good spot for a nice snowfall.

Could be kind of high impact if it sticks to pavement. Either way the ugly oak leaf infested pack persists. 

18z NAM a hair less amped. Looks like a decent wet snow thump Rt. 2 north. 

What a fooking mess this stuff ended up being. Flipping back to snow now...hopefully just mood snow and no more accumulating slop. 

A very compacted 5.5'' on the ground this morning so I'm sure we were at like 6-7'' at some point. Pretty cool for 11/15-16 though the landscape is kind of ugly with all the leaves on top of the snow. Raining now. 

6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Wait a second.....for how great this event was how does Octobomb compare? lol.....I mean that was so legit......seems this time its happening at an opportune time with all the leaves down and we can all just enjoy it without having to worry about a tree in your grill.....

This is a highly anomalously cold early season snow but October 2011 is a completely different beast. We may never see that again. My favorite weather event of all time. 

Pounding dendrites...just under 2’’. Not staying up to see it through but would be surprised if we don’t reach warning criteria...very impressive for 11/15. 

Coming down very nicely here. Hard to believe it's 11/15. 

Flakes in ASH. 

Pretty classic SWFE WAA omega bomb radar presentation. 

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that’s more iffy. Probably ZL. 

I like 5-6'' here. Guessing we dry out and snizzle instead of a real scalping. 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Do you have 12z Dom?

Looks a bit snizzly to me. Definitely dry. 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

How many levels is the sounding? You need nucleation below the dry slot too. -1C or -2C won't cut it.

My meteorology is rusty as hell. This is 06z. Looks kind of ugly but I figured it'd be snow.

FWIW I'm looking at the 12z Euro soundings for ASH and I don't see any sleet at 06z. Maybe the in between hours between 06z and 12z but it's snow through 06z verbatim. 

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s my concern 

I’d rather sleep there then go home to sleep then wake up at 4 to leave earlier to drive in crap.

i saw 35-37 on meso’s For KASH by about 6am

I'd take the under on that. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I figured it would be close there On start time. 

I also I believe I should be fine mostly wet commuting back at 515 A.M. but I other wise would be very concerned due to the volume of cars already mobbing rte3 by 530 and it’s everyones first snow storm if temps were below freezing at 9-10z 

I can't imagine that roads will be good by 5:15 tomorrow morning with sleet following the thump. It's not like we're going to transition to 40F and rain. 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a chance for 6-8 N of the pike IMHO and outside of 128....I don't think the chance is strong enough right now to warrant a warning, but it's something that should be kept in the back of our heads. I'd be going 4-8" there....I think the chances of less than 4 inches is fairly low up there. GFS is the only model that threatens it and even the GFS is prob in that 3-4" range.

It def not an easy forecast. Sleet could always punch in sooner, but those are the risks in such an event.

I think this is fair. I haven't seen a model sounding that sleets srn NH until some time after 06z. If we can hold on to snow for the majority of the initial thump I can see widespread 4-6'' amounts Rt. 2 north. My biggest fear would be an earlier mix obviously along with mediocre snowgrowth producing like 2-3'' of sand and then pings. 

GYX hoisted watches for most of their CWA...5-8''. Probably a tick higher than I'd go but it's hard to ignore how thumpy the Euro is. 

When is the last time we had a November widespread advisory/warning event in the interior...Thanksgiving 2014? I haven't looked at modeling until just now but I like a solid 3-6'' before mess up this way. 

Very meh here. Always take the under on MV winds. 

Nothing exciting here so far. Maybe some gusts to 30-35. 

Absolutely ripping raindrops. 

Lame here. Maybe some 35 mph gusts, a few CG strikes, and torrential rain. 

Stabilizing nicely here. At least the first few rumbles of "summer".