DomNH

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its a very good sign if you have 1-2" by 12z....good chance you might not have much of any accumulation by 12z...and most of it comes after 12z.

Agreed and that’s definitely what is modeled. I certainly don’t think I’m going to get shut out but I’m starting to not love the idea of hammering out a 4-5’’ spot here. Rockingham/Strafford Counties and wrn ME look better for that now I think. All good because I went 2-5’’ but of course the weenie in me wants the high end. 

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You should wake up to some accumulating snow.

I think so but not loving the last second trends/flags. But hey that’s the fun of meteorology. 

I think some wet flakes are mixing in here but it’s hard to tell. Hoping to wake up to white and solid mod snow but preparing myself for wet roads and mangled flakes. We’ll see. 

33 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My biggest forecast concern is how persistent the forcing is in the mid levels. That could mean one narrow stripe ends up with the goods, with meh to either side.

It's possible some narrow band tickles over 6 inches.

I could see this. I think the best forcing is a hair north of me and I may get stuck in lighter/showery returns and end up closer to 2-3'' than 4-5'' but we'll see. NAM/HRRR definitely banging the W ME jack. 

Temps dropping into the 33s and 34s at the local Wunderground stations. We’re getting there. 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s like 8-10 plus inches of precipitation...holy sh*t! 

Has a huge cutter in fantasy land. 

Just now, dendrite said:

Looks like it's raining in MHT and ASH.

It is. 

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Good shot at several inches near and along the MA/NH border northward tomorrow and no storm disco thread?  Are we that spoiled already?  Some years flurries in January gets its own 40 page thread. 

Figured I'd start a thread. Second plowable of the season for some and it's only mid-November. 

40F most of the way home from Burlington...36F in my driveway. 

2 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

Would you take over or under for 5" in the Mason/Greenville area.  My roughly 500' ASL can help sometimes.

Tough call because around 5'' sounds about right there I think. I'd probably hedge on the under...like 3-5'' but wouldn't be shocked if your area pulled out a 6 spot. 

NAM is also probably a warning event verbatim in srn NH, especially Cheshire County. Classic gone wild run right before the event. 

NAM  ticked cooler. Pickles will be happy to know that the 850mb fronto still looks good at the MA/NH border...maybe even a hair stronger this run. 

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw euro looks quite similar to 00z thermally (maybe a hair cooler if you squint enough)  but it's more paltry on qpf. Wave looks a little weaker. 

Looks more in line with other guidance now. It has been on the wetter side previously. Still a solid .4-.5'' for Rt. 2 north into srn NH. I don't know why I'm banging the drum so hard on this event...guess it's cool to have warning and advisory events within 5 days of each other in November. 

Just now, WxBlue said:

I saw your stats for that year below.... ooooof

That season produced my favorite wx event ever in October but was an epic toaster bath afterwards. I can only remember one warning event the entire season after October and I think it was in March. 

That GYX map looks really good to me. 

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

12z GFS looks a smidge colder?

 

Looks pretty similar to 06z to me. Maybe the thinnest of hairs cooler. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hollis is a good spot...little elevation there, I think.

Yeah some spots get near 500' I think. I'm only at like 250' but better than being in a pit on the river. 

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

U by airport? 

Nashua does not have the variability of Methuen /Lawrence area thou 

A hair SW of the airport right on the Hollis line. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a huge city in aerial coverage, and has some decent hills, which coupled with the close proximity to the river, makes for some variable topography.

I know...just giving you guys a hard time. ASH is the same way. I'm glad to be in the NW corner and not SE right on the border for these marginal events. 

Who knew Methuen had such a winter microclimate?

46 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nammy has a nice persistent area of 850 fronto running along the NH/MA border. It could be fun just north of the best fronto there.

It certainly does. I could see like Francestown pulling a 5 or 6 spot. 

I like 2-5'' north of Rt. 2 and west of 495. As Will said it's going to be razor's edge somewhere between Rt. 2 and the Pike. 

I think rain to the NH border is a bit of an exaggeration on the Euro but it definitely looks to favor Rt. 2 north. 

Getting pretty confident about a solid advisory event here. Nice to be in srn NH for these early season marginal events.