DomNH

We've reached the pre-storm minutiae and debbie stage. This thing has flags but the boundary layer isn't one of them. 

50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

16” in ASH , prolly not 

10-12 sounds fine 

I agree. Big range but I don't see any reason to deviate from 8-15'' here. I'm still not enthused about 18''+ totals in SNE. Models were closing ML centers at 00z and we have the H7 low tracking through NY State and the H85 low cutting right through SNE which is another flag to me for going huge. Never thought I'd say this but if we're QPF queening I'd probably go with the NAM look.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You should be able to stay up all night.

If I’m out with friends sure. If I’m posting on a weather board on a Thursday night...not so much. 

5 minutes ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

Sweet god, I thought it was Friday night already 

I wish. 6 or 7 years ago I’d consider staying up for the Euro but I can barely keep my eyes open past 10. How weenies evolve. 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would be close up here if the NAM verified. That H7 fronto lines up right through C NH.

Yeah that's a nice look for you on the NAM. I wouldn't forecast better than 10:1 in SNE. 

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gonna need 15:1 to 20:1 ratios to pull off 20”

Not happening James. 

Thing is trucking too. Most of the precip looks to fall in about a 12 hour window give or take. Not trying to be a debbie and this will be a good event but I see a lot of 12''-18''/12-20'' calls that I'm not a huge fan of. This thing has a lower ceiling than 18'' IMO. 

Big flag for me for going huge is that all the lift is at like 850 mb which is way below the DGZ. Like most SWFEs I wouldn’t be surprised if we ripped needles the whole time. I’m also always weary of the ML warmth punch coming in faster than anticipated. Obviously no one in the interior is sniffing freezing at the surface but I wouldn’t be surprised if we all pinged at some point. Max snow zone in SNE right now looks like Rt 2 north and I wouldn’t go more than 8-15’’ right now. 

Just looked at the Euro...SWFE on steroids for sure with that moisture feed from the Gulf. Weary of widespread 18''+ for those who remain all snow but there is definitely double digit potential. Guess I have to come to terms with swapping the Nikes for snowshoes. It was a good run.

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

wouldn't sleep on gulf source / longer duration of precip than typical SWFE

i bet just north of the mid lvl warm front where precip can stay mostly snow has a good chance higher end amounts working out (say 8"-14")

Yeah it's definitely more jacked up than the typical SWFE but I'm not buying 2'' of liquid. 

I'm with Ray on this one. Let us not forget SWFE climo. Snow to ice with the best thump north of the Pike. Sell on the crazy QPF amounts. 

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I can't see a 1/3" of ice doing much. 

We always think there's going to be a ton of ZR leading up to these events....and then it's like nothing. 

I agree. I'm thinking there will be enough SN/IP front end thump to keep things under ice storm warning criteria for most but at 5 days out you can't toss anything. It's really hard to get devastating ice >0.5'' accretion. Not going to happen if a bunch of the QPF is snow and sleet. 

I know that GFS run is a chair tipper for some but man that is a pretty hellacious front end thump especially Pike north. 

The BL is iffy ORH and east as we get into Friday afternoon but I think the majority of the precip falls before that's a problem. I could see Friday afternoon being drizzle and quick road melt but I don't think rain is going to cut into most people's snow. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You are all batshit crazy for accepting sleet.

Agreed. Who the hell wants to cleanup accumulating sleet. 

NCEP also changed the scale on the total QPF maps. I thought the 1-2'' contour was 0.5-0.75''. Not that QPF matters on a D8 prog but I was a little confused as to why it was a bomb...makes more sense now. 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

D8-9 looked like a sleet bomb to me after a bit of front end snow.  It's like +3 to +4 at 850 in ORH county with a temp in the upper teens. Not that this really matters right now.

Yeah I agree...I'm getting my clown range GFS storms mixed up. 

Isn't the mini VDay D12? The D8 storm doesn't look super exciting to me as is. Pretty bad that the best we can do is analyze long range GFS solutions.

Edit: Nevermind. The D12 storm is frozen to rain verbatim. 

I started posting on Eastern when I was 15 or 16. I'm 25 now with a red tag. Time flies. 

Absolutely ripping freezing rain. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lookin forward to 5am commute

Work from home tomorrow FTW. 

It's really icy here. Untreated roads are iced over. 

I don't know...I kind of loved 50F and no pack yesterday. Futility has lead to some great days to spend time outside. I love the forecasting and observing part of winter weather but if it could be 75F and all melt the day after that would be cool too. 

Snow here with a coating. Didn’t think we’d make it. 

Looks like just rain here. Surface is kind of torched.