It's really all the mesoscales that have this thing trucking along at a faster clip than the globals. The NAM is still a nice thump down in southern SNE but it's done by 18z. Christ the HRRRx is probably broken sun by 3 or 4 o'clock. It has this thing on rails.
Totally objectively speaking it's a pretty tough call for this area. I haven't really looked at the fringe models but Euro/NAM is going to be mostly poorly accumulating light snow that's in and out while the GFS is borderline low-end warning. I'm not sure if the FV3 GFS carries any weight yet but it's much more in the Euro/NAM camp than it's operational big brother. I'd go 1-3'' and minimal impact right now but damn if the GFS wouldn't make me nervous.
My guess is the Euro comes in heavy at 00z and then there’s a little correction back SE at 12z and we end up warning event CT/RI border ish south and advisory north. Enjoy the all nighter weenies.
What was the event in like March 2010 that ended up as a sloppy inch or so with some rain that the NAM had as a 12''+ isothermal interior paste bomb like 12 hours out? That was probably the worst I can remember.
It is amusing that the FV3 is pretty much a total whiff. I figured we might have NAM GW at 18z but it was the GFS and RGEM. Either way looks pretty good for solid snow down south.
So thankful this has trended fully into a daytime thing on Saturday. Hoping the March sun angle can take care of the meager amount of snow we get up this way.
Nashua covers a lot of ground so maybe but seems like someone measured in a really sheltered spot to me. I don't measure meticulously enough to send in a report so I guess I'm certainly not part of the solution.
20:1 seems about right in the MLM weenie band. It was definitely lower before that. Goes to show that sfc temps don't dictate ratios...ie it doesn't have to be 15F to get 20:1 snow. We all know that but it might be the only thing I hear non-mets confidently say that drives me absolutely insane.
Right now it's the third biggest I can remember behind the 2013 and 2015 blizzards. I've eclipsed my 18'' ruler but estimating 19'' as of now. Just passed Jan '11.
Kind of a really sneaky biggie here.
Finally looks like that band is going to break up somewhat soon. Constant ripping since 11:30...what a fail on the screwgie call. I should just start forecasting George Costanza style - whatever I think is going to happen just forecast the opposite.