DomNH

My guess is the Euro comes in heavy at 00z and then there’s a little correction back SE at 12z and we end up warning event CT/RI border ish south and advisory north. Enjoy the all nighter weenies. 

At least it's a quickie. Done by early afternoon. 

2 hours ago, 512high said:

Dom, I thought that was mostly south of ASH? Maybe a repeat of today for us on Saturday? (or more?)

I hope it ends up as a 1-3'' job that salt nukes and there's no impact. I have a bunch of stuff going on Saturday and I have no time for a warning event. 

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

 we've seen massive model discrepancy closer than 24hrs out. Jan 26th 2015 and march 21st 2018.  Every model expect the ec had a Foot+ for sne up until go time on 3/21/18.

What was the event in like March 2010 that ended up as a sloppy inch or so with some rain that the NAM had as a 12''+ isothermal interior paste bomb like 12 hours out? That was probably the worst I can remember. 

What my 20s taught me is that weekend snow absolutely blows. Nothing like being cooped up in the house on a Saturday. I’m pissed at the last 2 hours of model runs. 

It is amusing that the FV3 is pretty much a total whiff. I figured we might have NAM GW at 18z but it was the GFS and RGEM. Either way looks pretty good for solid snow down south. 

Good for the south coast to get one. Should be decent enough rates down there to accumulate. 

So thankful this has trended fully into a daytime thing on Saturday. Hoping the March sun angle can take care of the meager amount of snow we get up this way. 

I wouldn't forecast accumulating snow on roads Sat. outside of SE SNE. Meh airmass + March sun angle + -SN = wet. Looks like it's more of a daytime arrival than a nighttime one now. 

Hate to be tracking D10 again but the 3/10-3/11 timeframe looks like it has the biggest major potential to me. I'm not selling Monday yet but that's where I'd be looking for a biggie. 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No actually the opposite. If Monday didn't clear the baroclinic zone well offshore, we d have a legit threat on mar 6-7. Pretty good shortwave diving into lakes at day 6 but there's no thermal gradient to work with so prob just some flurries. 

Gotcha. It's early but I've been tracking the pattern past the 6-7 threat pretty closely. Travel coming up that weekend. 

How's the pattern look on the Euro past Monday's threat? Still zonal?

Pike region jack...1-2’’ up here. Hopefully so little it’s not even a nuisance. 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't speak for the combined ambit of total technology together with the consortium of finest minds in the arts and crafts of Meteorological deterministic forecasting but from where I'm sitting ... you're not likely mixing from that in the NH region. 

You may miss... but mixing is would be difficult in this particular pattern make-up.

I agree...was talking about the forum as a whole. I just don't see anything super interesting about Saturday. It'll be March either KU me or give me 70F. 

Saturday looks like a pain in the azz. Just enough of a threat to be an uninteresting nuisance on a Saturday night whether it be snow or mix. 

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What the hell is that Atari 2600 8-bit graphics imaging showing me?

There is some lift in the dendritic growth zone so maybe we'll have snow that isn't pixie dust for once this winter. 

38kt max gust at KASH so far. What a pit. 

Pretty meh in Burlington now too. Cloudy.

Parking lot trash bin has blown over in Burlington. National Guard on the way. 

In all seriousness was just out taking a walk and the gusts were pretty decent. Probably 40-45 mph. 

Decent squall on Rt. 3 driving into work. Lots of graupel. 

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ASH can be a pit, but I'll take the over. But yeah, there was no chance we were going to see those W NY winds that come roaring off the lakes.

Maybe we'll see a rogue 45 kt gust but I think 50+ kts is a pipe dream. We'll see. 

I will say that the ground seems pretty saturated here and I wonder if the last few days of 40F+ temps has helped loosen it up. Might help bring things down. 

It's a good setup for wind but I don't think most of us see the impressive numbers out of WNY from this afternoon. Wind is one of my fraud five in the interior. I bet the ASH ASOS doesn't gust  much above 40 kts. 

If I have to shovel one more 3'' then cement event I may jump off the Tobin. Give me 70F. 

Epic scalping right now.