DomNH

6'' here. Barring a late season biggie the biggest event of the season here was in November. 

Maybe 1’’ here in Littleton. Pretty much nothing at home. 

Just a weenie coating with poor flakes here. Glad southern areas got some action. 

Ern Mass will score a couple inches in the next few hours. This thing is probably out of here by noon. 

Pitching a shutout so far. 

FV3 GFS was too far SE for a time but looks like it had a better handle on this than the op overall. 

Not sure if the NAM chasing convection is so much concective feedback as a feature of the disjointed vortmax. Not saying it’ll verify but I don’t think it’s toss level. 

I’d sell 12-16 hard. Jack zone is going to be 6-10’’ IMO. 

I think we're kind of splitting hairs at this point. It's going to be a modest event outside of southeastern SNE. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hilarious how all you dirty men from all over New England go to the Electric blue , and I live 5 minutes away and won’t even go into that plaza 

LOL...I've never been but I've driven past it on 84 countless times. 

I'm not seeing much of a different between the 00z and 12z Euro up this way. It may be slightly better. I don't think anything post 18z will amount to much. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tossed like rev’s salad at a truck stop off 84

 

At the Electric Blue. 

Definitely toss sun angle where there are legit rates. Otherwise not so much. 

1 minute ago, GansettBay said:

Anyone have any advice on traveling? I’m at a conference in Portland that’s supposed to go until tomorrow. Would it be ridiculous to try to drive back to Rhode Island around 4pm tomorrow?

Given it's during the day I think salt will make pretty quick work of this outside of the areas in SEMA that get it heavier. Should be done by 4 as well. I have to drive to Littleton, MA tomorrow at noon and I'm not too worried about it. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . 

What are your numbers?

I don't think he's necessarily wrong. Unless you have a GFS solution with closed off ML lows which I kind of doubt the strongest 850-700mb fgen is going to be over SEMA and it won't even be that strong. I'm not seeing a big ML magic signal for central/nrn CT. Not kiss it goodbye but I wouldn't go watch/warning for KTOL and surrounding areas. 

Just now, 512high said:

dom, for ASH, density? fluff or paste type?

Guessing pretty standard stuff. Neither paste nor fluff. Should be pretty easy to nuke with salt. 

BOX hoisted for 2-4'' ORH northeast. I think that's reasonable. I still like 1-3'' here. 

Probably going to see a QPF distribution pretty similar to the 00z Euro at the end of the day I think. Maybe more in srn CT. 

GFS also seems to kick it out a little quicker too. Not as much lingering snow post like 19z. 

Yeah GFS def toned it down. No more warning snows to CON. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How saturated is the DGZ...what’s snow growth looking like 

There's lift in the DGZ but it's pretty damn weak unless you take the GFS verbatim. I wouldn't be super enthusiastic about forecasting >10:1 and I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to accumulate in the March daytime given rates probably won't be too impressive. 

I wouldn't even go advisory for nrn MA and S NH outside of 495. I have little confidence that we hit 4''.

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located.  We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.

I love your enthusiasm but come on now. 

Keg of Labatt kicked this morning I guess. I'd expect the GFS to cave but it has been really steadfast. 

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

ICON continues to show the region that gets the jackpot, SE MA.

That's every model. 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Isn't it a bit early to break that out?

I wouldn't blend it into the forecast but I find it interesting that pretty much all the mesos are handling it similarly. Except maybe the RGEM but it must be 5 o'clock somewhere in Canada and the Labatt is flowing.