DomNH

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

May can’t get here soon enough. My nape needs the kiss of warm 10am sun. 

100% this. I’m pale as hell. I need bronze season. 

I’d sell 12-16 hard. Jack zone is going to be 6-10’’ IMO. 

I think we're kind of splitting hairs at this point. It's going to be a modest event outside of southeastern SNE. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hilarious how all you dirty men from all over New England go to the Electric blue , and I live 5 minutes away and won’t even go into that plaza 

LOL...I've never been but I've driven past it on 84 countless times. 

I'm not seeing much of a different between the 00z and 12z Euro up this way. It may be slightly better. I don't think anything post 18z will amount to much. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tossed like rev’s salad at a truck stop off 84

 

At the Electric Blue. 

Definitely toss sun angle where there are legit rates. Otherwise not so much. 

1 minute ago, GansettBay said:

Anyone have any advice on traveling? I’m at a conference in Portland that’s supposed to go until tomorrow. Would it be ridiculous to try to drive back to Rhode Island around 4pm tomorrow?

Given it's during the day I think salt will make pretty quick work of this outside of the areas in SEMA that get it heavier. Should be done by 4 as well. I have to drive to Littleton, MA tomorrow at noon and I'm not too worried about it. 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve tried before. All he sees is a qpf map and declares that SNE should kiss this one goodbye. For starters, look at a sat loop.. then decide if it’s really going to get tugged east or is that only a figment of models imagination due to convection . Then will there be any mid level banding not being modelled.. etc etc . 

What are your numbers?

I don't think he's necessarily wrong. Unless you have a GFS solution with closed off ML lows which I kind of doubt the strongest 850-700mb fgen is going to be over SEMA and it won't even be that strong. I'm not seeing a big ML magic signal for central/nrn CT. Not kiss it goodbye but I wouldn't go watch/warning for KTOL and surrounding areas. 

Just now, 512high said:

dom, for ASH, density? fluff or paste type?

Guessing pretty standard stuff. Neither paste nor fluff. Should be pretty easy to nuke with salt. 

BOX hoisted for 2-4'' ORH northeast. I think that's reasonable. I still like 1-3'' here. 

Probably going to see a QPF distribution pretty similar to the 00z Euro at the end of the day I think. Maybe more in srn CT. 

GFS also seems to kick it out a little quicker too. Not as much lingering snow post like 19z. 

Yeah GFS def toned it down. No more warning snows to CON. 

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How saturated is the DGZ...what’s snow growth looking like 

There's lift in the DGZ but it's pretty damn weak unless you take the GFS verbatim. I wouldn't be super enthusiastic about forecasting >10:1 and I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to accumulate in the March daytime given rates probably won't be too impressive. 

I wouldn't even go advisory for nrn MA and S NH outside of 495. I have little confidence that we hit 4''.

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The amount of precipitation didn't change, there is barely any mixing on Cape Cod where the QPF max is located.  We could see 12:1 ratios as the comma head hits the area along with thundersnow potential.

I love your enthusiasm but come on now. 

Keg of Labatt kicked this morning I guess. I'd expect the GFS to cave but it has been really steadfast. 

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

ICON continues to show the region that gets the jackpot, SE MA.

That's every model. 

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Isn't it a bit early to break that out?

I wouldn't blend it into the forecast but I find it interesting that pretty much all the mesos are handling it similarly. Except maybe the RGEM but it must be 5 o'clock somewhere in Canada and the Labatt is flowing. 

The HRRR is really not feeling it. That model mostly sucks but highlights the disconnect between the mesos and globals. I'm going to guess the GFS doesn't go thermonuclear at 12z and cans the warning snows to CON but who knows. 

Let's la la la lock that in. A quick hitting mod/heavy snow for the folks down south who need it and pretty much nothing up here in SNH. 

It still looks like it ticked a little SE even before it chased the convection. 

NAM is not biting at all. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

With the NAM going spastic they will follow 

It's really all the mesoscales that have this thing trucking along at a faster clip than the globals. The NAM is still a nice thump down in southern SNE but it's done by 18z. Christ the HRRRx is probably broken sun by 3 or 4 o'clock. It has this thing on rails. 

Totally objectively speaking it's a pretty tough call for this area. I haven't really looked at the fringe models but Euro/NAM is going to be mostly poorly accumulating light snow that's in and out while the GFS is borderline low-end warning. I'm not sure if the FV3 GFS carries any weight yet but it's much more in the Euro/NAM camp than it's operational big brother. I'd go 1-3'' and minimal impact right now but damn if the GFS wouldn't make me nervous.