DomNH

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-20° at Errol airport. Glad we live here. 

Meh...that's the hinterlands. Moose don't get cold. 

Looks pretty meh to me. That warm tongue isn't going to be denied and the little bit of thump before is on the weaker side. Sloppy 1-2'' at best IMO. 

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

NO!!!!!! BIG BOMB STILL near the 20? NOOOOO INSTALL! ONE MORE PLEASE!

Best thing about March front-enders is that they melt before the day is over. That 2'' of slop will be gone by Monday. 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're due for a late season nuke in SNE  (I'm talking like 12"+ over a decent area)...we've had some close calls but haven't quite gotten one post-March 20th in many years. Last year we had the close tease, ditto close teases in both 2013 and 2014 in late March. 2011 was a moderate storm on 3/31-4/1, 2016 was also a moderate storm...both didn't quite organize enough to be a true double digit bomb. Patriots Day 2007 was for NNE...we just got minor snowfall over the interior.

March 30, 2001 might be the last one but that was only the northern section of SNE over the elevated interior. Anyone south of ORH got skunked. We probably have to go back to 1997 to qualify. That's crazy. 

We had big double digit events in 1996, 1987, 1984, and 1982 as well. We've been on a cold streak. 

What was the date of the March bomb last year that we scored like 2'? I thought it was late March...must have just seemed that way after 75F in February. 

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, totally foregettable event here.

Same. The pre-Thanksgiving storm and cold were memorable since they were anomalous but otherwise this winter was completely forgettable barring a major end of season hit. Not even any notable cold or warmth. Just months of meh. 

6'' here. Barring a late season biggie the biggest event of the season here was in November. 

I see no reason to waver from 5-9’’ here. Should be a solid event. 

2 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Oh true, guess I'm trying to see who's on late night crew now that the younguns are in bed

Ironic because I'm 16 and easily in the bottom 1 percentile of age according to the survey

The scales tip older.

Man I’d just chuck the GFS as far as you possibly could. I don’t see how you get such a shitty precipitation distribution with your H85 low closing off right underneath like that. It would be nice to see H7 close but it does kink south of SNE as OceanState mentioned earlier. I’m only going off the NCEP maps right now and can’t see ML fgen but I bet it’s pretty good with that look. 

Just now, dendrite said:

Congrats on the 18z nam.

Meh. I enjoy the meteorology but I'm all set with the result.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m going to end up going my conservative self tomorrow and then we’re going to get whacked  

I think I was focused on Bufkit soundings too much with last night and didn’t properly scout mid levels and other factors. 

 

Maybe 3-6” southern CT (mixing SE?) and 1-3” N CT? Or maybe go 2-4” N CT and 4-7” S CT. 

Take 'em up. 

8 minutes ago, 512high said:

any tainting Scott , or maybe coastal region?

We're all snow. 

I told my mom 5-9'' and I think that looks pretty good. Easier forecast than today I think. 

Maybe 1’’ here in Littleton. Pretty much nothing at home. 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Definitely  shifted east a bit not much but it did

I'm not trying to be an azz but are you looking at the right model? 

More reasonable looking QPF distribution too. 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX is still bullish on Monday...13” totals from now until Tuesday on their 9:07AM map for MBY. So that’s 10” or so from that day...  Not buying it

That seems a little aggressive but I think you look solid for 6-10''. This is a much better threat than the garbage that is this morning. Looks like a pretty widespread lower end warning event to me on its face this morning but I haven't been invested in it at all. 

I don't know what the trends have been like but the NAM/Euro looking pretty similar is a good sign to me. I'd chuck the GFS QPF with the way it looks in the midlevels even though the SLP is a little farther south of the NAM/Euro. 

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Haven't looked at a ton of detail with this system, but my first blush look at no 700 mb low has me a little concerned for some of the totals GYX is forecasting.

I'd like to see a closed circulation there and more than just WAA to get that much double digit snowfall. 850 does it, so it's not far off though.

I just looked at this one for the first time and I thought the same thing. First look made me think 5-8'' SNH. It's a pretty fast mover too. 

Just a weenie coating with poor flakes here. Glad southern areas got some action. 

Ern Mass will score a couple inches in the next few hours. This thing is probably out of here by noon. 

Pitching a shutout so far. 

FV3 GFS was too far SE for a time but looks like it had a better handle on this than the op overall. 

Not sure if the NAM chasing convection is so much concective feedback as a feature of the disjointed vortmax. Not saying it’ll verify but I don’t think it’s toss level.