DomNH

Eyeballing like 1.5 - 2'' here. Grass is mostly covered. 

Probably ripped about 1'' in the last hour. Back to -SN. 

Yeah coming down nicely for now. 

Pretty perfect fatties when it's actually coming down. We'll see how long that lasts.

Still think we limp our way to plowable here. It isn’t pretty. 

SWFE climo rearing its ugly head. The warm tongue probably knocks on my door. Does look more and more like the usual 4-8’’ in the Route 2/SNH area. I’ll probably end up doing fairly well. 

12z Euro looked like typical SWFE climo. 4-8'' N of the Pike into S NH.

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've never done so for winter...but it's something I want to do. I really thought when I went back to school I could do a ton more with studying/research and the exact opposite happened...like I don't really think I have gained any additional (or very little) knowledge in winter wx or severe wx forecasting in the past 6-7 years. 

I'm sure some of the better schools go into some depth/detail on what you mentioned in the bold but not where I went...overall the program is pretty bad. Outside of the equations and atmospheric physics/chemistry (which is tremendous to know and understand and can be a great value when applied to understanding forecast models) I learned absolutely ZERO about forecasting while in school...absolutely nothing. If I never found this board back in 2007 and just went to school I would have little to no knowledge of how to forecast...outside of rip and reading MOS and just looking at the basics on models. 

In terms of forecast soundings we didn't do much with them...except look at a few examples from some random weather events in the 90's and just go over how to differentiate between Precip-types. 

I honestly get really pissed when I think about things b/c of how little I learned over the past 6-7 years. Between school and working 2-3 jobs I had zero time to do much in my own time. 

I feel you on this. Our program was very, very heavy on the math and science and light on practical application. I think they've worked to change that a little bit since I graduated but I'm not sure how much. 

I'm not too impressed up this way. Lift looks meh and there is some dry air in the DGZ. Expecting a 1-3''/2-4'' of sand type deal. Front ender looks more exciting by the Pike.

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll chime in as well. 

Do you have bufkit, Ray? If not coolwx.com has great tools to see what you could with bufkit.

coolwx.com > Hourly forecast models > then you can choose plot, station, and model on the left hand side.

Here is the 0z 3K NAM for BDL:

1. the -12C to -18C range is illustrated...this is where snow growth is most optimized

2. I highlighted by the purple box where the negative values of omega area (negative values of omega indicate rising motion). Notice how you have very negative values of omega right inside the snowgrowth zone...this is referred to as a "cross hair signature". When this occurs and you have sufficient ice and RH in this layer (what's great about bufkit is you can overly RH with this...I'll post an example) you're not only going to maximize snow growth...but you're going to get very intense precip rates

3. I circled area of dry air in the low-levels around 6z or so...that was my flag for all this

 

Now let's look at the RH profile. The time of snow was prior to 12z...well the heaviest anyways. Notice something...very moist...the dry air in the lower levels doesn't take over until around 12z...AFTER the precip has fallen. My mistake here was harping that drier air would be in place earlier...but between 0z-12z...you have a very deep moist profile here (noted by the high RH values through the troposphere

 

 

Yep, BUFKIT is definitely your best friend when it comes to looking at the DGZ and trying to find funky dry layers. That BDL cross-section is an excellent signature for a short period of heavy high ratio snow. Of course BUFKIT and coolwx is limited to the American models. You can get some coarse SKEW-Ts for the globals but I don't know if there is anywhere to get cross-sections. Checking the cross-sections is good practice for any snow forecast. Sometimes you can find some flags.

Heavy heavy coating.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That's sick!!! I'll have to start going there again. I used to like the page but since they did that face lift a few years ago I think it's been horrific...navigating between products and models and so forth...awful

I agree that upgrade was a disaster but there’s an option to use the legacy model site which is what I do. 

11 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I still have yet to find a website (including paid) that provides ECMWF soundings.  If anyone knows of them please let me know.  In the meantime I usually have to have 6 windows open with different variables displayed to paint a picture so to speak.

Accuweather Pro has coarse Euro soundings.

Next weekend blows. No cold air to work with even if it doesn’t cut into Michigan. Cold rain at the Rockefeller tree for me. 

Perfect wintry night out there. Right out of the Currier and Ives calendar.

Just now, OceanStWx said:

We issued a SPS at 1030 AM to highlight a crap commute with 1-3"

Yeah I know. Hopefully people read it......glad I'm working from home today that's for sure. 

I wonder if people knew this was coming. WMUR wasn't hitting it too hard last night. This is going to destroy Rt. 3 this afternoon. 

Very Currier and Ives-y here right now. 

Anybody that has access to models would be on board with a stormy period around the middle of the month. Hopefully things slow down and push into the next week. I will whine my way to as dry a weekend as possible.

Sun trying to peak through as flurries continue. The events are fun but man my pack enthusiasm has evaporated as I've gotten older. Wish this could magically disappear after the last flake falls.

38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I had 9.8” at 2am on Monday morning w one clearing at 11pm

Sounds about right based on how deep it was when clearing the deck. Definitely a 20+ incher in total. 

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol so what is your total for the whole time Period 

Lol I'm not sure I didn't get a final for round 1. 

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

I don't ever recall having so much snow in a storm and never having gotten above a WWA. I guess it is the amount over time. Anyhow, I'll take a long lasting snow storm anytime. I get the coverage and the duration. Can't really beat it.

Interesting how this storm fits into NWS headline criteria. Technically would have verified two separate warnings under the 12 hour criteria here.

34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Dom what do you have in Nashua and is that with clearing board 

we got lucky last nite with banding early 

10.5'' cleared yesterday around 5 pm. 

Decent bursts keep rotating through. ASH has been a good spot for some biggies the last few years.