DomNH

That snow hole that keeps showing up on guidance is undoubtedly a real feature. I’m taking the under on double digits where it sets up, and I have a pretty good idea where that’s going to be.

3 minutes ago, Colonel Badger said:

What’s the deal with the snow hole over MHT in every model?

Area in between forcing mechanisms. ML fronto to the left of us, conveyor belts to the right, here we are stuck in the middle with subby.

Dendrite went from rooting for cirrus to probably ripping 20:1 fairy dust. Models pretty consistent with the Merrimack Valley screw zone now. Happens. 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Weenie map.

One thing I like about the weenie maps is they highlight the different areas of forcing a lot better than coarse QPF graphics. 

Just now, Whineminster said:

close - I'm 5" to 8".  If we ticky ticky north tonight, then 8-12". 

I hope we ticky tick south to get into the better H7 fronto banding. We're not getting into the WCB. As things stand I'm going 4-8'' here. Hope to squeak out a warning event but I can see a scenario where we just subsidence struggle our way to 4-5'' of dense sand.

4 minutes ago, summerthyme said:

Sometimes I can't tell if ya'll are joking with each other or not. I certainly hope so, otherwise that would be embarrassing behavior from adults. 

These weather forums go back years. Nothing is personal. I've been a part of them since like 2008 or 2009, been to a get together and met a bunch of the people posting in this thread in person, and I still feel like a newbie.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is going to be  a Boxing day. At least I'm prepared for it, this time.

At least we were never teased by 18-24'' NWS clown maps in the lead up. Hell we're looking better than we were a day or two ago.

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We didn't get hosed as bad in boxing day as further east and northeast in the Tip to ASH belt....we had about a foot while some of those areas had like 6-7" of sand.

9'' of sand and my biggest melt ever. 

I definitely forecast frustration on Thursday. Really wouldn't be surprised if we get that shredded radar look over some of SNE.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I have a strong feeling this will be the gfs run that finally gets on board.... 

With a southern NH ML magic jack.

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So boxing day.... Hey all thanks for the thoughts. I am in Hartford Hospital with blood clots in both lungs. Man talk about pain. I think I am over the hump as they are transferring me out of ICU today to a step down room.

 

My call without much involvement is 14 to 20 in the jack zones in NW NE Ct. 8 to 14 rest of CT . Stay safe kids

Get well soon!

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Those seem really hard to pinpoint, but historically they seem to affect some areas more than others.  

I expect to pound sand for a bit

Boxing Day PTSD 11 years later. The subsidence storm.

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My eyes will be looking at the 700mb heights.  Need to watch where that subsidence zone is.  You can see the differences in the models in where they place the snow bands.  NAM I fell is too far N.  The GFS is still too far S.  The Ukie/RGEM/GGEM/Euro(lesser extent) are sort of in the middle.  They bring that subsidence zone over the 495 belt W and N of BOS.  Hopefully they are wrong and we see a more widespread precip shield with minimal breaks.

I doubt they're wrong. I think we see a pretty uniform precip shield S of the Pike but not so pretty on either side of the fronto band north of the Pike. 

Banding signal gets into S NH on the 00z Euro. Still too early to pinpoint where the big cutoff is I guess. It probably pounds 20-1 ML magic snowglobe snow up to MHT on that run.

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Continues the Dit-pIT-Ray screw zone 

Take me down to the subsidence city where the snow is sand and the rates are shitty.

Serious arctic sand look north of the Pike, and especially north of Route 2. Lots of dry air and the lift is above the DGZ. This is going to stink for those that don't get into that fronto band. If I had to take a first stab at the forecast for here I'd probably go 2-5''. Like the look ORH and south though. I could see 8-14'' for a lot of CT of RI. As a rule I hate these weak, stretched out banana lows. Always seem like they have a big negative bust potential.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep.

I'm boned.

This one ain't ours. Maybe we squeak out 3-6'' of fluff on the northern fringes of a fronto band. I don't see getting into the meat of it. 

Gross. I’ll take cirrus over a nuisance advisory event. 

@512high if you’re the guy plowing up and down the street in front of Fody’s we’re watching. 

Back to rain. More sloppy plowable than memorable but hey it was fun to watch it rip drinking beers downtown this afternoon.

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

it's funny . I bet Chris at 425' has less slop and more paste in Nashua

I’ll see what my parents ~300 ft on the Hollis border is like tomorrow. Might be a little nicer looking than the slop we have downtown. 

Just wet slop at this point.

Just now, wxsniss said:

Fun storm, but no way my 3-6 (or NWS 4-8) for Boston area verifies seeing as we are in the CCB now and it’s underwhelming.

I get the disappointment. Take aside the well anticipated poor snow growth and melting, it still overall seems less dynamic than most guidance progged.

Even for ORH hills and north, seems it underperformed.

Did we even have a single report of thundersnow anywhere?

Don’t think I saw any +TSSN reports. End of the day I don’t think it was an underperformer I think it was a performer. The weenie map widespread 12’’+ totals were always crap. 

Pretty decent amount of outages to the east by Hudson and Pelham. Doesn’t seem to be too much in Nashua. Meh. -SN.

Not too impressive right now. Solid early season paster but nothing to write home about.