DomNH
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Everything posted by DomNH
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43 kts at the pit that is ASH earlier today. Not bad for this area.
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Best of the day here just now. Probably >40 mph but nowhere near HWW criteria.
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Whole lotta meh on the wind here as per usual.
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Starting to pick up in the last 15 minutes or so.
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Peeling paint.
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Pouring zr now. Refreeze is going to be a disaster.
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3k NAM gone wild with the thump too. 4-8'' to snizzle to a few hours of 34F rain is a decent net-gainer for most.
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Yeah, I'm guessing the reality on Sunday is the CF makes it near ASH before it retreats but probably not further than that.
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Euro is rain to MHT by midday Sunday other than some ice in the favored CAD spots. Thump looks better for the Pike region than the GFS though.
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Also think the ptype algorithm is garbage and that’s mostly sleet not zr, but I don’t have ICON soundings. Nor would I want them lol.
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You know things are bad when we’re arguing over the ICON.
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NAM is a cutter lol thump is flaccid. More like 2-4'' region wide.
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The PV has ticked west on every run since 00z last night. If that trend doesn’t reverse at 00z tonight I don’t think this is going to be all that interesting outside the front end. Primary hanging on into upstate NY is a killer.
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I don't hate the overall advisory thump to slotted crap trend.
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Thump is decent NOP on the GFS but post-thump is mostly showery slotted garbage. Primary into Ontario.
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NAM scalps then shuts off quickly after 15z in SNE before a little more afternoon rain outside the favored spots.
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I'll be on the road from the South Shore back to ASH Sunday afternoon so kind of hoping for a more GFS-like solution. I just don't see the appeal of advisory snow followed by the kitchen sink.
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Strong primary to PBG was my concern after looking at the ensembles from overnight.
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GFS doing the NAM where it dries out to flaccid rain/mix after 12z.
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Yeah, ICON finally brings the primary into NY.
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Interesting evolution on the NAM. Decent front end thump then kind of dries out Sunday AM and flips to light mix/rain for most then the secondary gets going Sunday PM and we get the scalping.
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Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting.
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GFS more of a widespread paint peeler than zr. What a fun solution that is.
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WTF is the ICON-EPS?
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Ah, I thought 0.5'' was when the power issues started. Agree that 3/8'' is probably doable in the favored spots if things stay the same as they are now. I just don't see a widespread ice storm warning kinda deal.
