Syrmax

Just saw this. Did you get through? I'm not sure how travel insurance works as I've never bought any. I don't know if the insurance cover a situation where you cancel flights/hotels. Of course in this case the situation is unique to say the least...I guess I'd try to figure out what the insurance will cover...

We cancelled our golf trip to Orlando at end of March, Disney resorts shutdown. They are refunding the reservation, right off. Delta giving a credit for future travel. Combined with my April italy trip cancellation, I'll have a lot of airfare credit to fly all over the place.;)

You are right about the H1N1 swine flu outbreak. In fact, by the time an inoculation was ready, the virus had spent itself and was in decline. Many nations that had signed up for the vaccine didn't want the quantity they were committed to. However, based on currently available data, covid-19 is much more highly transmissible w/ R0 value thought to be ~2.5...meaning every infected person is spreading it to 2.5 others on avg. That very high. H1N1 was 1.5-1.8 or so, with less severe symptoms on average. Infection growth in China and Italy followed geometric growth patterns for R of 2.5 or so until (in China anyway), they instituted radical lockdowns of up to 400 million people. The fact that asymptomatic people can transmit COVID-19 makes it especially difficult to contain. SARS was containable as only actively symptomatic people were infectious to others. So it was easier to identify and isolate these people and stanch the infection growth. Again, not so with covid-19. Covid-19 also appears to have a 3-5% mortality rate (far higher than H1N1 which was sub 1%). While people <30 appear to be less susceptible to severe effects... not so for 50+ cohort. So the actual mortality rate for 50+ population is far higher as that's where all the deaths are (and more severe illnesses). SARS actually had an 8-10% mortality rate among the elderly population that got infected, from what I've read. Covid-19 may show similar results, or worse if health care systems get overwhelmed. To illustrate, if 100 million get infected (projections are higher), at an optimistic 2% mortality rate, that's 2 million deaths. If the elderly population infected is say, 25% of total and they take all deaths, that's (2,000,000/25,000,000)*100 = 8% rate for that cohort. So I don't get why there's an inclination to trivialize things "out there." Well, actually I do get it but I'm not lapsing into politics here. Long live the Gen Zoomers!

Those models aren't aging well.

I hadn't thought about that angle. The original articles that got everyone spun up (and Zerohedge a TWTR ban) didn't hit the political angle but rather laid out a scenario where a manufactured virus was possibly inadvertently released from a level 4 Virology lab located ~20 mi. from Wuhan. China's less than inspiring industrial safety record makes that a plausible scenario. Certain Chinese virologists have also been working on bat virus research in North America / China and have published peer reviewed studies in medical journals. Those are more or less facts. Beyond that...buyer beware. Where the snow? Sun is out...

Weeks ago, I read the original "analysis" that offered this as a possibility. I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next person. It was interesting but wholly based on circumstantial evidence, requiring numerous dots to be connected, which the author(s) acknowledged. But I've also read analysis by smart people in biochem/virology who have concluded that it is far more likely to have a zoonotic origin, not man made. Nothing is 100% certain right now, and it probably doesn't matter in the end, but I certainly wouldn't get wrapped up in believing the more outlandish claims regarding its origin. What is real is the growing economic impact that has markets spooked. Nuff said.

Agree on Corona being under appreciated right now. I want to minimize it but...I've read some things out of China (published prelim studies) that aren't comforting. 2 strains thought to he out there now. The most prevalent one being less severe at the moment. But for groups that are severely impacted long term lung damage and significant immune system harm is indicated. Much more to be discovered but this isn't common flu. And no inoculation likely for probably 6-12 months at best. Also, italian MDs indicate that 10% of those hospitalized require significant treatment...respiration and advanced treatment.

Wrong answer! It will overperform. Although roads should be ok. So impact pretty meh.

I'm flying to Orlando end of month for a few days and Italy (Rome, Florence) for 2 weeks in late April. My employer already saying I'll be working from home for 2 weeks post italy trip (Maybe Orlando too). They've cancelled all international travel for work-related reasons. We have another worker in our group coming back from India...I now have to make plans to do a turnover of his work I've been covering by phone. And oh yeah, no insurance on any of my flights or reservations...

Drove thru it. I-81 in No. Syracuse was briefly getting covered. But fear not, state plows were out wasting taxpayer $ (at 35 mph).

C'mon! #fakemodel

This has a real chance IMO. Because it inflicts max pain on our weenie world. Same sort of effect as stock options expiration prices. Look for where the max pain expiration prices are and all too often...

I have a pool. Once May is here I want roasting hot.

That's not Spring...its mid January conditions...

Man I feel bad for the NE weenies having to see that and knowing that it's probably just a mind f*ck...

Well... tallied up the snowfall to date...79.7"...came up just short of 80" thru end of Feb. Need another 1/4" yesterday but Matt returned to the area... Feeling like 100" is a big stretch at this point but 90" is do-able.

We have the Mets AAA team here now. So if I haven't got my fill of aggravation on tv, I can head down to the park and watch their future players buggering things up. Actually, they haven't been bad. Fortunately, or not, I follow English and German football (soccer) so the winter is never bereft of drama. Heja BVB!

Metsfan is a bold screen name. My first Mets game was July 30, 1969 as a wee kid. They lost a DH to the Houston Astros, 16-3 and 11-5 in the nightcap. Which was outrageous back then. The Stros hit not 1 but 2 Grand Slams in the 11 run 9th inning of game 1. Must have been stealing signs back then too. The second game featured Gil Hodges walking slowly from the dugout to LF to pull Cleon Jones for lack of effort in the middle of a 10 run inning. Who knew they would become the Miracle Mets after that day? I naturally became a Mets fan for life after this display of Metsian ineptitude. The struggle is real.

I ended with a vaguely disappointing 7-3/4" of snow yesterday. I know this sounds grotesque but it was looking good for a run at a foot or more. But the band wobbled and then weakened. Which is typical of WNW flow events. My area was near the jackpot, about 5-10 miles to my NW, up near Fulton, closer to the lake, had about 10-11".

Was lurking in this thread and others as things have quieted down for now. I am still scarred from having spent most of my first 38 years along the I-95 corridor (VA, NJ, LI, CT). Living downwind of the Lake Ontario (or Erie) snow machine the past 15 years has been mostly a dream. Lake effect (even though the best is usually just to my north) is usually a decent Plan B when the synoptic Plan A fails. This winter looks like one of the epic fails down along the coast. But I think you all will get thrown a bone or two before this pig is done. Maybe even a bone with meat on it.

How far from Niantic River waterfront are you? Trying to confirm that a friend's sandbagging me in a friendly wager for Niantic this storm. My old stomping grounds.

S Fork of LI is already over freezing and just RN, CC is up to 36 and will probably rise another 10...RUC looks good to me which takes slp over BID and CC and slows it up there...HV and ALB look good here, IMO.

Exactly right. Way more demand & much higher pay. I actually thought about a met degree at one point many yrs ago but everyone I talked to said go into engineering (or finance). They weren't wrong and likely even moreso today. Probably more private sector met opportunities exist today than 20-30 yrs ago but the engineering demand is much greater as the US continues to produce increasing volumes of WalMart greeters w/ hs diplomas.