Syrmax

Just saw this. Did you get through? I'm not sure how travel insurance works as I've never bought any. I don't know if the insurance cover a situation where you cancel flights/hotels. Of course in this case the situation is unique to say the least...I guess I'd try to figure out what the insurance will cover...

We cancelled our golf trip to Orlando at end of March, Disney resorts shutdown. They are refunding the reservation, right off. Delta giving a credit for future travel. Combined with my April italy trip cancellation, I'll have a lot of airfare credit to fly all over the place.;)

You are right about the H1N1 swine flu outbreak. In fact, by the time an inoculation was ready, the virus had spent itself and was in decline. Many nations that had signed up for the vaccine didn't want the quantity they were committed to. However, based on currently available data, covid-19 is much more highly transmissible w/ R0 value thought to be ~2.5...meaning every infected person is spreading it to 2.5 others on avg. That very high. H1N1 was 1.5-1.8 or so, with less severe symptoms on average. Infection growth in China and Italy followed geometric growth patterns for R of 2.5 or so until (in China anyway), they instituted radical lockdowns of up to 400 million people. The fact that asymptomatic people can transmit COVID-19 makes it especially difficult to contain. SARS was containable as only actively symptomatic people were infectious to others. So it was easier to identify and isolate these people and stanch the infection growth. Again, not so with covid-19. Covid-19 also appears to have a 3-5% mortality rate (far higher than H1N1 which was sub 1%). While people <30 appear to be less susceptible to severe effects... not so for 50+ cohort. So the actual mortality rate for 50+ population is far higher as that's where all the deaths are (and more severe illnesses). SARS actually had an 8-10% mortality rate among the elderly population that got infected, from what I've read. Covid-19 may show similar results, or worse if health care systems get overwhelmed. To illustrate, if 100 million get infected (projections are higher), at an optimistic 2% mortality rate, that's 2 million deaths. If the elderly population infected is say, 25% of total and they take all deaths, that's (2,000,000/25,000,000)*100 = 8% rate for that cohort. So I don't get why there's an inclination to trivialize things "out there." Well, actually I do get it but I'm not lapsing into politics here. Long live the Gen Zoomers!

Those models aren't aging well.

I hadn't thought about that angle. The original articles that got everyone spun up (and Zerohedge a TWTR ban) didn't hit the political angle but rather laid out a scenario where a manufactured virus was possibly inadvertently released from a level 4 Virology lab located ~20 mi. from Wuhan. China's less than inspiring industrial safety record makes that a plausible scenario. Certain Chinese virologists have also been working on bat virus research in North America / China and have published peer reviewed studies in medical journals. Those are more or less facts. Beyond that...buyer beware. Where the snow? Sun is out...

Weeks ago, I read the original "analysis" that offered this as a possibility. I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next person. It was interesting but wholly based on circumstantial evidence, requiring numerous dots to be connected, which the author(s) acknowledged. But I've also read analysis by smart people in biochem/virology who have concluded that it is far more likely to have a zoonotic origin, not man made. Nothing is 100% certain right now, and it probably doesn't matter in the end, but I certainly wouldn't get wrapped up in believing the more outlandish claims regarding its origin. What is real is the growing economic impact that has markets spooked. Nuff said.

Agree on Corona being under appreciated right now. I want to minimize it but...I've read some things out of China (published prelim studies) that aren't comforting. 2 strains thought to he out there now. The most prevalent one being less severe at the moment. But for groups that are severely impacted long term lung damage and significant immune system harm is indicated. Much more to be discovered but this isn't common flu. And no inoculation likely for probably 6-12 months at best. Also, italian MDs indicate that 10% of those hospitalized require significant treatment...respiration and advanced treatment.

Wrong answer! It will overperform. Although roads should be ok. So impact pretty meh.

I'm flying to Orlando end of month for a few days and Italy (Rome, Florence) for 2 weeks in late April. My employer already saying I'll be working from home for 2 weeks post italy trip (Maybe Orlando too). They've cancelled all international travel for work-related reasons. We have another worker in our group coming back from India...I now have to make plans to do a turnover of his work I've been covering by phone. And oh yeah, no insurance on any of my flights or reservations...

Drove thru it. I-81 in No. Syracuse was briefly getting covered. But fear not, state plows were out wasting taxpayer $ (at 35 mph).

C'mon! #fakemodel

This has a real chance IMO. Because it inflicts max pain on our weenie world. Same sort of effect as stock options expiration prices. Look for where the max pain expiration prices are and all too often...

I have a pool. Once May is here I want roasting hot.

That's not Spring...its mid January conditions...

Man I feel bad for the NE weenies having to see that and knowing that it's probably just a mind f*ck...

Well... tallied up the snowfall to date...79.7"...came up just short of 80" thru end of Feb. Need another 1/4" yesterday but Matt returned to the area... Feeling like 100" is a big stretch at this point but 90" is do-able.

We keep piling it up. Granted not huge but steady...

If this keeps up a few more hours I may get to 80" for the season. I'm still holding out hope for 100". Doesnt look like the beginning days of March will help the cause though.... Does Matt have any more trips planned?

We are at about 4" total now. Not bad.

It's not much but 2.5" here so far this a.m. snowing pretty good rate.

Would be nice if this band hangs around for an hour or two here but probably not.

I think we know why that is...

Wolfie must be getting it good. The further south band getting strong.

Thanks for the pics and video @WxWatcher007 There are several souls in this forum you should reap before you make your way out!

Interesting to see how far North the main band off L.O. has moved. I thought it was supposed to be working it's way south...Congrats Thousand Islands!