Syrmax

Most of India is so 3rd World we'll never get an accurate accounting of what goes on there. Other than I don't see how it won't be really ugly.

yeah, i've been wondering this myself. This is a very unstable period. One candidate is a nation state that is close to breaking (Iran, NK?). Russia is always a candidate for settling old scores but can't be in good shape with the collapse in oil prices, and who they would go after is another issue. The collapse in oil prices hurts their economy particularly hard. They're already in Syria and unofficially in eastern Ukraine. India and Pakistan are always a tense situation. Turkish adventurism could also increase although that would be more subtle and they are already meddling in Syria. I would be more leery of some sort of "asymmetric" financial attack...like China, Russia, etc, dumping US Treasuries or something like that, perhaps coordinated with China making a move with some of their offshore island claims. It's long been posited that due to mutual economic dependence (similar to the Mutual Assured Destruction theories), the Chinese would be cutting their nose off to spite their face. However, with the collapse in global trade, that equation may be changing. If something like this did happen it would be sudden and unannounced, and timed to be at a point of maximum financial market instability.

I'd agree. At the very least we need state and national based supplies of certain medical equipment. Gloves, masks, faceshields, etc etc. They're not THAT expensive normally esp when bought in bulk. It's ridiculous that health care workers and providers are in the position they are in.

Interesting tidbit i caught in the daily podcast from Chris Martensen, regarding why Germany likely has such a low Case Fatality Rate...currently it's thought they are just doing a better job at testing more people. And they're health care system has been able to cope better. Typical German efficiency you could say. It almost has to be because its not that they're much healthier than us on average (they smoke like fiends and drink Bier moreso than average American). This aligns with a hypothesis (based on emerging data) that about 86% of COVID-19 cases are "undocumented". Thus the denominator of the rate equation is likely understated - by a lot. More to follow but IF this holds true, it would point to a CFR of ~0.4%, which is considerably lower than we are seeing right now in many countries. It's still 4x worse than seasonal flu in terms of CFR but not orders of magnitude higher. The cluster areas that overwhelm local healthcare systems are one of the biggest problem with covid-19 as there is no "herd immunity" yet and populations / govt were not prepared to think about, much less rapidly do anything about, an outbreak like this. If the above does eventually confirm, it would (in my mind) point to a general lack of preparedness to deal with a pandemic in many countries (US included). This isn't a Trump thing as the lack of preparedness was identified in ten (10) separate reports by US Federal officials between 2003-2015, as reported recently by CNN. Specifically, insufficient medical supplies, lifesaving and protective equipment (and especially ventilators) was pointed out during the last two Administrations. Nothing was done. Throw in this Administrations peculiar dysfunctionality and it's...not good. What i'd expect to see going forward are procedures...public awareness efforts (should be easy now), equipment stores, plans to ramp up testing etc. in a rapid manner, all need upgrading so that the next time we don't put so many people, especially health care workers, at ridiculous amounts of risk. And we can respond without having to panic into a global economic depression.

Thanks. Good video. I watched it all.

Bring gloves to the store...things you touch, like self scanning guns at checkouts and door handles are prime locations to transmit...masks, i dunno. If you stay far enough away from others we should be ok from what I've read.

Part of the problem is we don't know how much has been "spread" versus a function of increased testing rates, presuming that it's probably been around at some level for longer than we realize.

I want to lash out at some people on local social media. Mainly the busybodies that can't mind their own f*cking business in the best of times.. and at the "corona deniers". But I've held my tongue. No need to create additional shitstorms now. Afterwards.. the knives can come out.

Stay safe as you can. I worry about my son in the Navy. There's only so much they can do..

This is actually a really good piece and worth a read. A lot of solid thought and perspective. I really identify with the "building an airplane while in the air analogy" as far as the evolving covid-19 response. We have data, but how much of it is useful?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is requiring travelers from Louisiana to self-isolate for 14 days and said the Florida Highway Patrol will install checkpoints on major roads to screen travelers from that area, he announced on Friday. DeSantis is imposing restrictions on travelers fleeing to Florida from Louisiana — particularly New Orleans, which is emerging as one of the hotspots of the coronavirus outbreak. Snip... The Florida Highway Patrol will install checkpoints on the major roads along the Alabama-Florida state line and screen drivers from Louisiana, with the exception of those driving commercial vehicles. “There’ll probably be a diversion for folks with certain license plates,” DeSantis said.

Final grades? I'm giving this past winter a solid D. Clearly, it did enough work to not fail, however the Winter failed to distinguish itself when given the chance. Assignments were sloppy and frequently were missed. No, I did not copy this off my my HS Report Cards...for the most part.

Der Kommisar sagte daß Sie drinnen bleiben müssen. Hau ab!! I've seen shite on NextDoor app. People grousing about people taking walks in their neighborhood. Onesies and twosies... the horror

I still enjoy my son's Call of Duty that we would play on his PS4. Compared to the Space Invaders, PacMan and Atari that I grew up with, this stuff is great!

FYI...Rhode Island not f@cking around with New Yorkers. Like a BOSS! https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-27/rhode-island-police-to-hunt-down-new-yorkers-seeking-refuge?__twitter_impression=true On Saturday, the National Guard will help them conduct house-to-house searches to find people who traveled from New York and demand 14 days of self-quarantine. Maybe it's time to polish up those ol' jack boots I've had stashed away for years.

One thing I was thinking about after returning from HD today...i dont wear a mask around but when doing self checkout, I wish I had brought nitrile gloves with me because they have you scan your items with a scan gun that you pick up to process your purchases. I didn't see where the clueless teenage clerk standing around watching was making any effort to clean the scan guns after uses. I should have mentioned it to them. Next time...

This is similar behavior as what happened around Wuhan right before lockdown happened. Not sure how you fully stop it in an "open" democratic society unless they chuck the rules completely...

If people can maintain appropriate distances I've thought the beach is a great spot to go. If I was in FL that's what I would do. Of course, we then see photos of beaches looking like mosh pits (FL) and it just wrecks it for everyone.

I go out every few days, and take walks, it's pretty rural here. I went to a local restaurant/bar last eve to buy a take out dinner and get a couple "drinks to go" while I waited...which are now allowed by the State Liquor board on a temporary basis. Other than that, the only places I've been is Home Depot for interior fix up now that i have time...and the Liquor store, before the local Kommisars put those off limits. One thing is for sure, judging by local social media, there are a fair number of closet Nazis and Kommunists masquerading as dogooder busybodies living amongst us. I'm pleased that they're outing themselves now, for future reference of course.

If we're gonna reach a million + deaths, people gotta start dying in droves, fast! We're not even at 2K yet.

The source is real, in fact they sum up what is known pretty well. I've read similar elsewhere. Much of the data is being leaked out of China. Noone knows what to make of it though. It does make one wonder although I don't see how even the CCP could hide that many deaths (20M +). There's a lot of foreign eyes in there these days.

Of all the places one would think would be be poleaxed by a pandemic...India is near the top of that list... I wonder if their low numbers to date are more a function of their dysfunction...

i am not sure on how they calculate seasonal flu other than CDC references estimated numbers of total infected - probably for the reason you mention. I've been insisting to "certain people" that i know that this really is more dangerous than seasonal flu but they refuse to believe it. OTOH, even CDC admits we don't have enough data yet to do a proper comparison and risk analysis. Which does make one wonder...what if it turns out its say, 2x more deadly. Was that worth an global economic depression? We'll see how the numbers shake out. From WaPo: By comparison, influenza — known as the common flu — has infected as many as 45 million Americans since October and killed as many as 46,000, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. President Trump invoked the large number of flu deaths each year in a tweet on Monday.

Not sure on the actual US rate. I think the most we can conclude is a rate based on the # tested. We know nothing about the denominator. Even seasonal flu is a guesstimate of total affected. Edit: but as far as comps to other nation's total tested, its interesting. I don't think there's any way that "millions" are going to perish from this. Probably because actions have been taken. The numbers some were throwing around assumed no preventative measures taken. I think...

I see the 00Z EC takes this system and pushes it out to sea where it dances around for a bit. Pretty big change from previous continuity. Let's hope the GFS is right for once. We need a late season FG in SYR to crush ROC.