Syrmax

That jibes with my memory of living down in the I-95 corridor from the 70s to 90s. Generally awful for snow. In fact, the 90s were probably saved by the extraordinary winter of 95/96.

Yes.

Since when does GFS outperform the Euro? Since 2020! Unscientific here but model max pain points to a shift NW with track and snowfall. There's a lot more of them (coasties) then us (hicks).

How much for Philly?

Does look good at H700...especially at 6-7 days out, the qpf panels tend to be among the least reliable, though we all like to fixate on them.

I like #35!

00Z EC is good news for most of us. I'd much rather have that model in our camp then the GFS a week out...we'll see if the usual model tendencies play out this time. The 00Z GFS Frog Marches us into XMas with almost nothing but rain and misses.

I'll tell you what that is...its the 00Z GFS cancelling December. What a disaster if that plays out.

Its locked in now. The pain won't stop until morale improves

What are these LES events that you speak of? Were they before the Orcs took control of the weather?

I had a 9:1 ratio this a.m. its def a wetter snowfall.

Well, 1.5" as of 8 am here in Yellow Zone NY. I had 0 expectations so a bit of a surprise.

It's early. We (KSYR) are far behind Climo at this point but the averaged values are still low. November averages 6-9" of snowfall in November (I forget if it's 6 or 9"). As its only 12/7, and sitting here with 3.5" total, it's ~25% of average to date, but of course we should only have received 1/10th of our seasonal snowfall thusfar. So 25% of 10% is still a small number. If we are still at these values by end of December, I think we'll have to ratchet up the Panic Meter level.

Not so sure...being an "old timer"...i distinctly remember the GFS always overdoing the cold going back to the 1990s and early 00's. It's tendency to be too far S&E with east coast systems (esp in the medium range) and to lose storms, only to have them magically reappear as the event draws closer, seems to be relatively unchanged. At least that's my unwashed perception...

Agreed. The weather the past couple of months reminds me of what is typical in most of Germany and the Low Countries. A lot of 40’s for high temps, generally dreary with rain and occasional bits of snowfall with cold snaps. Same with England.

Character building... At least we appear to be on track for another mild-ish Holiday season...

If I was a betting person, I'd go with a solution closer to the EC than the GFS etal for next week. We've seen this how many times in the past 2 decades? Regardless, it's not much of anything snow-wise for most of us other than the usual bullseye LES spots off of Erie and the 6 toothless people living on the Tug (excluding Wolfie of course ).

The good news is that, as we all know, model output changes in time, esp the further out it in time that it goes. Sort of the worst thing is to be jackpotted on Day 7 thru 14 on a run. Cuz that rarely materializes. Of course, if recent GFS runs are accurate...we're Bogged till mid December.

I was enjoying our record warmth. Now rumors of snow. Tis' the season. I guess. This is upstate NY after all.

Above avg November usually means a hot summer 2 years later. Well documented in the literature.

Since I’ve been here (15 winters), we have been average or above avg for snowfall for probably 11 or 12. So not bad...although the propensity for consistent snowcover has been lacking. I haven’t seen any real analysis of this compared to longer term averages, so I don’t know if it’s a real trend or imagined. However, more frustratingly for me, is that we def have had a number of recent Dec/Jan periods where it magically gets mild right before Xmas and into at least the first half of January. Which is really a downer from an overall seasonal “quality of experience” standpoint. Last winter a perfect example...starts early, gets mild in prime time, yet a cold wet spring with snow into mid May. On top of the Covid misery. Blech!

I’m thinking a light accumulation, up to maybe an inch by Monday a.m. for us. After that we start warming up. I have a tee time for next Sunday so a nice global warming November will be “warmly” greeted here.

Time to dust off the KBUF snow map adjustment algo for areas not on the Tug in CNY (divide by 2 or 3)?

That's what makes lake effect country (esp CNY) interesting for snow freaks. Further east, after a storm it usually clears out and gets sunny. Around here it often sets up round 2...the LES...which is sometimes better than the synoptic snow.

Almost 0.2" rain here so far. Steady but nothing crazy. Looks like we may get a coating of snow overnight to get us on the board for the season. Yay! I think.