Syrmax

I measured about 3/8ths of an inch of snowfall and 0.9" liquid. Ratio was poor.

Most global models are generally a P.O.S. Outside of 5 days. Which is a big improvement over 20 years ago. Not sure what the limitations of accuracy will evolve to in our lifetime.

0Z GFS basically scoots the wave out to sea with barely Warning criteria snow up to SNE coast and LI. Mainly a mid Atlantic snowstorm from eastern WVA up to CPA and interior NJ. It showed this look a few runs back IIRC. Would suck for our Catskills friends... The really odd look is how the central southern tier of NY jackpots a bit. Which almost never happens. It’s like a photographic negative of a typical synoptic snowstorm distribution.

Give it up. This storm is a non event here. So is December. And with any luck Jan and Feb. Let’s go Low! But then again, I’m looking at retiring in Portugal so don’t mind me.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather expected Friday and Saturday as surface high pressure moves in behind the exiting coastal storm. Temperatures will begin to warm up as a southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for rain and snow showers increase Saturday night into Monday as the cold front crosses the region. Only a brief period of cold air advection occurs behind the front before a southerly flow takes over and mild temperatures begin the work week. Thank god. Let’s get some 50s in here!

Details vary run to run of course but December looks lost for us. I’m actually hoping we get a super mild winter. If I can’t get a decent December (around here) the rest of the winter becomes mostly uninteresting. We are due for a long run of below normal snowfall just by reversion to mean, compared to the last decade or two. And that’s ok by me.

This looks appetizing. Bring on Spring! ... Make that Summer cuz Spring is the new Winter in these parts.

Probably over excited and spooging on his laptop in his mom’s basement.

Birmingham eh? I weep for the future...

m i'll usually find myself doing the latter.

Details keep shifting of course but look at this disaster. GFS has had me thinking it may not be too early to turn out the lights on another waste product of a December...

Some world class Dumpster Diving right there!

The H500 presentation doesn't look all that impressive on GFS/CMC based on another quick scan. GFS pretty much keeps a positively tilted trough that looks to be weakening with time as it heads east. I can believe a weaker / more suppressed solution plays out if that's right.

6Z GFS is pretty much a complete whiff for upstate NY. But, its a 6Z run...and the GFS.

If it's gonna miss, hopefully it's a shank...

Bills needed that pick 6. Nice recovery. In wx news...Bastardi hyperventilating on TWTR about I-95 (BWI to NYC) being destroyed. Meanwhile he shows a GFS Kuchera Clown map with basically I-95 south of NYC with little accumulation. But oh!!! The wind! It's like WuFlu hype. Everyone.Is.Going.To.Die.

Let them have their fun now. We'll make it up in April!

Gon happen.

That's a classic coastal low snowstorm distribution with banding along the I-88 corridor accounting for the heavier snowfall axis. Agree on the mid/UL point you made. The track of the low seems like it will be "good enough" as generally modelled currently but the other story is as you said...

I think it's great. Feels nice and mild! And I'm not trolling you...;)

It's way too early to latch onto model run-to-run gyrations. But I guess it's what we do best.

Exactly.

The beatings will continue until morale improves!

I still hold with the time tested notion that being in the GFS bullseye 4-5 days out is usually a set up for a nasty rug pull.

That was a good one! One of the few memorable storms in 2 decades living in SE CT.