Syrmax

I'm taking the under.

Looking at their latest discussion i suspect they are having reservations about expanding any headlines further North based on basically just the 12Z runs, esp when the two A Listers (GFS, Euro) didn't move much qpf north of say, Cortland NY...but there was a general trend. 00Z tonight should firm things up as far as any trends. And let's face it, 3-6" of snow here is maybe Advisory level. It's not like this is a life and death situation whether they put up WWA's...

Ukie, various Canadian, Icon and yes SREFs...and the vaunted JMA! Truly the "B" Team!

Have you missed the last 6 hours here? Almost the entire "B" Team suite of models pushes about 6" snow into SYR/UCA. The GooFuS and Euro remain "outliers" with half that (at best). Not sure which idea is correct but we will soon find out...

I saw Teske on Ch. 9 just put out 4-9" for our area - Cuse to Utica...9-14" from Cortland and south. Seemed reasonable.

Not gonna fixate on 18Z runs other than eyeball trends. The main 00Z and 12Z runs will be of more interest. We'll have plenty of Real Time info by the time 12Z comes out tomorrow, to see which model is being naughty...or nice.

A lot of them are usually in rip n read model hugging mode...

That dryslot really f*cks Philly & NYC forums. Ugly if real.

Advisories probably...same with KBGM, other than current Watch counties will be upgraded. KBGM: 1245 PM Update... First, some notes about the incoming storm. Model consensus is taking a bit of a northern jog with track of system and especially its midlevel frontogenesis axis, which will be the focus of higher snowfall rates. Forecast adjustments are being made, to allow higher amounts into the Catskills and Southern Tier. We anticipate possible slight northward expansion of existing Watches and Warnings, to be issued by mid afternoon once final decisions are made. The idea a gradient of uncertainty/sharp cutoff in amounts is still there, but the location of that uncertainty is shoving about a tier of counties further north. Meanwhile, solid confidence in a high impact storm exists for, at a minimum, Northeast Pennsylvania and into the Southern Catskills. Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft yet still below freezing. This may contribute to some riming on ice crystals. So for Wyoming Valley-Poconos area, that may provide an upper bound to snow possibilities. Very likely however for at least a foot to still be realized in Wyoming Valley-Poconos.

No way! That's a disaster scenario for most of us!

which is the Control run...01? Or is that separated from the Ensemble members?

I'd take this for KSYR...about 0.6" Liquid Equivalent at say, 11 or 12:1 would get us Warning criteria snowfall. NWS KBGM gonna have to choose their poison real soon.

The 00Z runs tonight will be the most important in our lives!

I was looking at some model wind fields and thinking same. They will be fighting that and the mid level center tracks. If they go west or over them its a problem for them sooner than later in the storm.

Will be interesting to see if NWS KBUF or KBGM expand any Advisories or Watches based on the "B" team's 12Z runs. Gotta think the GFS and Euro looks will give them pause before jumping on it.

GooFuS Uber Alles! But look at that Euro run though...its not budging off of the idea that we get barely brushed. I stick to my 1-3" expectation here.

I pretty much threw in the towel on this last night. Along with the rest of the month! I'm waiting for the next model wobbles at 00Z but, it's looking like we could get a few inches here (GFS has 0.0 for us BTW). Stay the course!

That's very true. But we've seen this go both way trend wise. But yeah, the NW trend seems to be more frequent as you get closer in to gamedays. Fortunately, I don't think pinging and dryslot will be our issue with this one. I think i'd rather get skimmed and just miss then endure the BS the coasties are experiencing now with model whipsaw.

yeah...at the expected ratios of 10+:1...seems hard to believe. I need to see the Euro and the 00Z runs to see if this is a pre-wobble wobble or more of a final answer...;)

Thinking same for SYR immediate area...i think we are seeing the high water mark for qpf out of the 12Z runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustments back the other way in the next 24 hrs. But this was looking like a shanked FG a day or two ago. BGM->ALB are looking great for 8-12" if i was to throw out a number at this point.

GFS keeps Matt and I high and dry! Liking the look.

Looking at that 12Z NAM snow graphic for So. NE...its totally believable...lived it soooooo many times in the past. I'd be tossing that run (and lighting on fire in the Dumpster).

SREF plume average has 17" for KBGM. Looking good for Bingo to get into the 12+". Good for them! Seems like Binghamton area has been screwed for significant snowstorms over the past decade. I don't think it will be another 1983 "Megalapolitan" storm disaster (feet predicted the day before...high overcast in reality). That one left some scars with me. I decided to join the Navy after that.

Typo! it was 0.09" liquid.

GFS lurches from Spring is near to mid winter conditions run to run. I'm onboard for early Spring. And it's not even winter yet, technically!