Syrmax

Texted my sister in Endwell. Woke her up. She's not happy. Actually, her husband isn't. LOL.

Wish my parents still lived in Vestal. I'd have driven down to see this shit. My sister is asleep near there. LOL.

Time for a Jebwalk?

We used to always see that back in the day of rear wheel drive! Made snowstorms more entertaining watching everyone get stuck trying to climb the hills in Vestal.

This was sort of well modeled in some respects (thinking slp) but what's going on near BGM is a galactic bust. Something like this was shown in 850/700 Fgen on some models...but over CPA. The mid levels were all wrong in placement, too far south by 40-100 miles i think. Also, the snowfall algorithms are going to be wrong in the other direction south of here, much of PA, and coastal areas. Will be interesting to see how SNE makes out. The warm nose was only hinted at down there and it ended up jacking down snow totals it seems so far. NWP snow algos are a general swag but we all go nuts on them.

Yeah to be honest I seem to recall 48 or 50" for SYR which could have included back end lake enhancement or outright LES. I had a good write up on that event saved a couple of computers ago but that's gone. Not sure if it was an NWS product but I think it was. I can say that the map i posted was rubbish in SE CT. We had 3-5" on snow and then the kitchen sink of gruel thereafter. No way eastern CT had 6" on the coast. I was 15 miles inland and I measured 4". In West Hartford there was 20"...on the other side of the CT river.

Actually i believe SYR had 42 or 43" of synoptic. The lake effect drivel might have got it to 50.

How'd NWP do forecasting this, in that location? Not well it appears. I think it had something like this over CPA.

No it didn't.

No it didn't.

Syracuse had 50" from the 1993 Storm of Century. Virtually all synoptic. BGM was wrecked in that one also...

Jelly AF Bingo people! Bout time.

LOL. She will be pissed when she wakes up. Snowing better here now actually. We are making a run for 3"!

You in BGM now? I asked my sister in Endwell how the snow was...she said oh about 6"...a couple hours ago. I told her she might want to actually look out the window. ;(

Pretty well modeled overall. Look at this. NWS fantasy Snow totals south of us (this forum) will bust low because...warm nose! Was well telegraphed. We've seen that up here before...

We'll see about that 3-5" extra...

I was actually home from college in Virginia and it was even better to actually see some snow. I had stayed in SE VA when fam moved back north. Oh, how I need to move back to Dixie now and GTFO out of this mess....

Were they wearing masks like the media and their betters wants them to?

Love it! I remember TS in that storm also. First time i experienced that. I remember a letter to the editor in the Binghanton Sun-Bully sometime after that storm, recounting another stranded experience on a hill near us that night, Bunn Hill Rd as I remember. Was a weird experience for them also and many. But a memory of a lifetime.

NWS blew it out their ass down in NJ and eatern PA. I of course saw the warm nose and how the 1-2 foot totals were crap.

Warm nose usually under-modelled or over-ignored. Euro and NAM were showing or hinting at it in Mid Atl and coastal SNE /NY. Usually keeps forecasts based on qpf panels busting year after year... 2" here N of Syracuse. Yawn. We get that from a good hour from the lake.

We are going to be <12" for December. Appalling.

Wow! I just measured. We are rocking 1.5" here! Total. Big Q is whether we can sqeeze out 2"!

What did I tell you?