Syrmax

We're in upper 40s here, a little disappointing. Was holding out hope for torching to nearer 60 for a bit but alas. No Covidmas joy to be found!

My ex wife's fam is from the Ohio/WVA border area. I've been there several times. The fact that they are getting a White XMas dumping and we are manning lifeboats makes perfect 2020 sense. The hits just keep on coming!

Gotta say, running around picking up last minute trinkets for gifts...this XMas wx (and the NYE Gullywasher I saw on GFS yday) is a fitting end to 2020. I'm sure 2020+1 will be different.

Yeah, I've read that, or something similar in the past. My thinking is that the more you run a program with millions of changing inputs, the more variability you may likely get. I still casually observe the "off hour" runs to offer 'interesting" solutions quite often. In the case of this storm it's more noticeable as the area is right near the line between pretty different outcomes for Xmas holiday, which others have pointed out.

I'd be careful drinking too much Hopeium based on 6/18Z runs...tend to be a lot of noise. Once in a while they can be useful for trends. We'll see later tonight.

I'm watching soccer and troubleshooting Xmas lights...seems better than getting wrapped around the axle on this one...

Well we're out of the game pretty much other than window dressing snow for Xmas but fear not there's at least one or two gully washers just around the corner on GooFuS for when you get back!

That's not funny. It's over my house too! Time to move?

Don't worry, 2020 2.0 is just around the corner...

we still have about 2" on ground, not much has melted at this point. In fact its flurrying now. It won't survive the quick torch and downpours Thursday but what the heck, its 2020. Expect the worst and you will still be disappointed! And...if you want to maintain holiday spirits...don't look at the 12Z GFS...lots of activity but...futility for the most part. Fortunately its likely to change over time.

I still think we will get our inch or two of snow...not sure if its some post-frontal changeover for a couple of hours or some random LES that wings through at some point. Given the likelihood of an inch of rain with temps surging to around 50...the existing "pack" around SYR-ROC will be just about gone by the time the front passes through. Have to hope the 06Z GFS longer range is OTL as, while its active, it looks actively crummy.

It’s raining. And two more days of it on tap this week. The rest of the 0Z suite looks like a slow meltdown well into January. Where is this winter people speak of?

Probably more like 5-6k deaths per minute once it peaks, according to the latest modeling. But, the good news is that even at that rate it'll take about a year to nom nom through most of the earth's population. So unless you're planning on living more than a year, I wouldn't get too fired up about it.

Won’t matter practically speaking. Goalposts already being moved. Vaccine dispersal won’t enable removal of distancing requirements, mask wearing and other economic restrictions. Nice as a science project but if public health officials are going to continue this policy then my interest in the vaccine becomes almost zero. I’ll get it when it’s available but I do the same with flu shots.

I missed this since I have been detuning from the noise. Congrats on the decision, it's certainly understandable. You will be missed here for sure. Best of luck to you and the Frau.

You know, I was going to expand and clarify but why bother. you are quite unlikable. Seek help.

Fair enough. I havent seen a lot on antibody testing on the Covid Tracking Project but I could've missed something. There's way too much information flow out there the last 3 months, overall.

Problem is we don't kknow if they're actually shitty tests or just Dems seizing on concerns about the rapidity by which FDA approved them. It will be figured out if they are shitty tests in due course but sitting around navel gazing and jerking off in peer reviews doesn't seem like the best approach while Rome burns.

This is part of why we are in trouble as a nation. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/495772-alarm-bells-ring-over-controversial-covid-testing So this is now evolving as the latest anti-Trump political ploy to oppose the release of covid-19 antibody testing. First, in Jan the MSM and Dems line was, "this is all overblown". Then, when Trump shifted gears to denial and trivialize space, they swapped 180 to oppose that. This fit hand in glove with "not enough testing," ... bad Trump. And correct. Now we're getting more testing and its but but but, it's not good testing. GMAFB. When the Democrats (correctly) pointed out that the Admin was fumbling the testing rollout during Jan-Mar timeframe, and fingered the FDA as being an obstacle in the process, it made the Trump admin look bad. Ok, fair enough. Now, when they begin rolling out a lot of antibody tests, and have improved covid-19 test availability (somewhat), its: oh no no no, those tests didnt get rigorous enough scrutiny by FDA. And lest one feebly state "oh so you're ok with bad tests," read this: "But in the rush to get tests to the public quickly, there are worries that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has allowed companies to market tests with little to no oversight, raising the potential for a surge in inaccurate results." There are worries. Really? By whom? C'mon, this is horsesh!t and clearly an attempt to keep the nation paralyzed for as long as possible to drive dissatisfaction and maximize economic destruction...which plays against Trump ostensibly in the election. These people better be very careful as people's patience with both sides is drawing thin. Unhinge enough people and frankly it'll be great entertainment watching these people all get what they've probably got coming.

Agree on that. In the end, I suspect that "excess mortality" might be a reasonable way to figure out a real number of covid-19 deaths. Not exact as seasonal flu lethality varies but we know statistically how many people die over the course of a year so any deltas ought to stand out.

We still have limited testing, whether it's due to a continuing lack of test kits or other procedural reasons, not sure. I'm not sure if there's an under or over count going on. There's been no shortage of claims both ways. Until proven otherwise, likely after the fact, I look at this issue as similar to bad refereeing...it washes out in the end...usually.

I dont know how granular they will, or can, get. Many counties have very low infection totals and it seems way overboard to be walking around in masks and all the other limitations on businesses. Problem is, if it gets relaxed in low infection upstate counties, its impossible to limit travel out of higher infection counties. So you rancid, infected mongrels in Rochester and Buffalo would have to stay home for it to fully work!

I've stumbled across interesting articles on health, weight control, etc with a focus on having the "right" gastrointestinal microbes and such. Not sure how real any of it is and a lot of nutritional stuff seems to border on junk science but some of it makes sense. If nothing else, if the Placebo effect works, roll with it.

NYC may stay in lockdown until 2022 or 2023. They'll never get a low enough caseload to convince themselves to come out. And that's fine, they can do what they want, or need to. Upstate we have a chance to loosen up in June but the first time trends even think about changing, Cuomo and local Committee's will reinstitute stricter controls. By Oct/Nov I'd expect we will plunge back into lockdown, so at best we have a 3-4 month reprieve. Without so called "herd immunity" the only real hope is that the virus mutates in our favor. Vaccines seem impossible in the next year or more and treatments incremental over time.

Gotta say, if I see one more Boeheim article in the Syracuse Post Standard I may go postal. Boeheim family, Boeheim wife, Boeheim's kids, Boeheim's fave salad dressing, Boeheim grilling gluten free dog turds, Boeheim's long lost relatives in outer Baluchistan, Boeheim's bowel movements...just stop.