Syrmax

We're in upper 40s here, a little disappointing. Was holding out hope for torching to nearer 60 for a bit but alas. No Covidmas joy to be found!

My ex wife's fam is from the Ohio/WVA border area. I've been there several times. The fact that they are getting a White XMas dumping and we are manning lifeboats makes perfect 2020 sense. The hits just keep on coming!

Gotta say, running around picking up last minute trinkets for gifts...this XMas wx (and the NYE Gullywasher I saw on GFS yday) is a fitting end to 2020. I'm sure 2020+1 will be different.

Yeah, I've read that, or something similar in the past. My thinking is that the more you run a program with millions of changing inputs, the more variability you may likely get. I still casually observe the "off hour" runs to offer 'interesting" solutions quite often. In the case of this storm it's more noticeable as the area is right near the line between pretty different outcomes for Xmas holiday, which others have pointed out.

I'd be careful drinking too much Hopeium based on 6/18Z runs...tend to be a lot of noise. Once in a while they can be useful for trends. We'll see later tonight.

I'm watching soccer and troubleshooting Xmas lights...seems better than getting wrapped around the axle on this one...

Well we're out of the game pretty much other than window dressing snow for Xmas but fear not there's at least one or two gully washers just around the corner on GooFuS for when you get back!

That's not funny. It's over my house too! Time to move?

Don't worry, 2020 2.0 is just around the corner...

we still have about 2" on ground, not much has melted at this point. In fact its flurrying now. It won't survive the quick torch and downpours Thursday but what the heck, its 2020. Expect the worst and you will still be disappointed! And...if you want to maintain holiday spirits...don't look at the 12Z GFS...lots of activity but...futility for the most part. Fortunately its likely to change over time.

I still think we will get our inch or two of snow...not sure if its some post-frontal changeover for a couple of hours or some random LES that wings through at some point. Given the likelihood of an inch of rain with temps surging to around 50...the existing "pack" around SYR-ROC will be just about gone by the time the front passes through. Have to hope the 06Z GFS longer range is OTL as, while its active, it looks actively crummy.

It’s raining. And two more days of it on tap this week. The rest of the 0Z suite looks like a slow meltdown well into January. Where is this winter people speak of?

Agree on this. Most likely scenario is a driving rain for several hours with temps rising to near 50 on Thursday, followed by the front and an inch or two (maybe) for most of us. The LES...who knows, but the usual places on generally West flow look best. The ICON would be a disaster scenario. I'm hoping for something like what the current NAM shows, which offers a bit of hope for an inch or two post front passage and at least a glimmer of hope for an XMas miracle.

I have to think it might have something to do with elevation/hills? That general area (sort of the triangle between I-90/I-81/I-88) tends to be a popular placing for banding structures upstate. I don't think that its a classic upslope scenario but maybe it's just prime location for mid level forcing for coastal lows, combined with hills/etc. The 700mb low was modeled (late in the game) to close off over eastern PA and proceed Northeast. Which is where the heaviest Snowfall occurred. The 700 and 850 mb panels day before and day of storm showed the fgen forcing pretty well but even an algorithm can't always be precise with how much qpf that produces. So there's a bit of chaos theory involved IMO. My unwashed thoughts anyway...

Agree, para did well. I don't think any model really saw how that super banding would be over the I-88 corridor vs being placed in CPA...which is what I remember most NWP showing pre storm. Someone else posited this question the other day, maybe it was @BuffaloWeather which was...how the heck did such a relatively weak system produce the snowfall it did, even up into Central NE.

That's a Blitz and a QB sack by 2020 standards for SYR. And I'm not talking the football team!

Seems a little rambunctious regarding an XMas eve storm considering it's a week away and NWP hasn't showed much of a wave with much consistency the past few days. LES potential sure...but that usually only impacts a few areas so its hard to get jazzed about that.

Been great! Just model hugging with every body else.

Katodog is that you? Is this me?

I gotta visit my sister, she's in Vestal. I forgot she moved from Endwell recently. Her hubby measured 39". They need MOAR!!

Guessing the Golden Snowball race is over in the 1st Quarter!

Probably more like 5-6k deaths per minute once it peaks, according to the latest modeling. But, the good news is that even at that rate it'll take about a year to nom nom through most of the earth's population. So unless you're planning on living more than a year, I wouldn't get too fired up about it.

Soon. Many men come...

I had 3.5"...barely an hour of work for BGM. I also had 0.45" liquid...which seems off. Although maybe not too much as some local areas seemed to be around 10:1 ratio, which for a snowstorm with temps in the teens is maybe a bit unusual? Granted, we didnt have much UVV here and aggregate size was on the small size all storm.

Entry level rates.