Syrmax

Picked up maybe an inch with the line that passed through. Now we wait and see what transpires later today amd tonight...

That's concerning. I've been patiently waiting for the vaccine and will continue to do so. I haven't been exactly chomping at the bit to get it but have been planning to do so when my time comes. My sister is a pharmacist and has had reservations about the vaccines given the type (recombinant RNA?) and less than the usual run time on trial testing. Hopefully by Summer the verdict will be in. I hope you recover fully, sorry to hear that you've got it. Are you taking any meds? I know 5 people that have got it, or tested +, in the past few months and all had mild or even no symptoms. I had a ferocious "flu" that evolved into walking pneumonia in Oct/Nov 2019 when I got back from Europe. Took me 3 weeks to fully shake it. Antibiotics did little/nothing. I tested negative for C19 antibodies the following May (2020) but i've been suspicious as C19 was probably starting to gain traction at low levels in northern italy that early based on what I have read. And i was around a surprising number of Chinese tourists in Prague/Amsterdam. Still makes me wonder. I told people that I didn't go to China but...it came to me.

Easily on the RGEM. Could be a band of 6-10", if RGEM correct.

Truth. Not like that greasy kids stuff GooFuS.

Cut your grass lower in the fall.

Fauci came out today apparently started down talking vaccine effectiveness, esp in regards to new strains of the C19 virus, but even in regards to efficacy w.r.t. the main strains. I hate to sound conspiratorial (unless it's a really good conspiracy ), but one gets the sense that TPTB are envisioning the 1,000 Year Reich of Masks. It would definately keep certain interests that are normally side players in the political power structure (public health bureaucrats) large and in charge.

Where in the hell did that line come from? Completely misses everyone but southern tier in central NY. Unbelievable.

BTC.X ... It's an interesting banter topic...do we trust math more than Uncle Sam's full faith and credit...?

GFS is in suppression mode. We've seen it before many times over the years. If other models join it for the mon/tues system, I'll take the GFS more seriously. Until then...I wouldn't get ratchet over the prospects next 2 weeks.

Here's the KBGM Clown for the event. Matt and I are mocked again. Why can't we at least be in the yellow snow?

AI? As we all are aware (I think), wx models are deterministic algos based on known physical properties, rules, and physical-mathematical relationships/laws...they are not sentient or machine learning beings (Replicants!). Pretty sure I would not want some sort of "learning bias" interjected...as it would invariably be highly dependent on a set of predetermined instructions (temp has been higher/lower than model output for the last x of y runs...so let's adjust...). Not sure where you would be going with this other than creating Skynet for weather? Having said that, if u do create Skynet I'd like to get in on the ground floor like the Winklevoss twins did with Bitcoin.

We're take it. May not get a blockbuster this season but maybe several moderate events to at least claw our way back to respectability. Rebuilding season...again?

I recall a storm or two with similar snowfall distribution...where Chicago gets a dump and on east. Doesn't happen every winter but not unprecedented by any means. Need kind of a bowling ball moving more easterly than northerly obviously.

Looks like the GTA are the winners with the enhancement shown by the Royal family.

The good news is that if we get the usual shift north in track as game day approaches, we may be reasonably well positioned for the system early next week. Model trends the next 2-3 days will be interesting. Hopefully recent trends as to the strength of the blocking up north, turn out to be overdone.

Stronger push of arctic airmass... look at the closed 498 DM feature on the latest run. Pushes everything south, even the system in the southwest. Hopefully that's overdone.

Seems aggressive...

Some hopeful words from KBGM Long Range Disco: Low pressure is expected to track northeastward from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. The 12Z Operational GFS is showing similar biases with a further south and east storm track. Given research into it`s biases this solution was discounted with the forecast weighing heavily on the ECMWF suite, UKMET and CMC. These solutions bring a low into the Ohio Valley then send it offshore as it encounters a blocking high to the north. Temperatures generally look to be in the 10`s and 20`s early next week leaning precipitation chances to be in the form of snow. While confidence has increased slightly, this event is still 5 days away and any small adjustments to the track and intensity could lead to significant changes in forecaster thinking.

We at least look like deep winter now with decent snowcover. As spotty as snowcover has been here, I feel for the ROC people who are in a murder hole.

Just tallied up the "winnings"...up to 25.6" for the season IMBY. About 80-90% of it Fake Snow or enhanced in some way off the lakes. Without the scraps we get this would be like...Raleigh-Durham?

I just measured...4.7" and 0.19" melted. 24.7:1 ratio.

I'm waiting till 9 am to measure. Fake snow here usually amounts to window dressing so its of passing interest, to me anyway.

Some fake snow going on here. Maybe a couple/few inches have fallen.

Here's our next legit weather system after this weekends mixed precip, per 00Z GFS. It's out there a ways but...Bon Appetit!

We had 5 minutes of "heavier" snow, literally a dusting. Tonight same deal. Looks to continue like this for 10-12 days (basically till Feb), until the GFS rams it home with a cutter deluge to kick off Feb in style. Days are getting longer at least. Hopefully an early Spring.