Syrmax

Well...good to see model trends intact on 6Z runs. Ty is correct in that the placement of the H850 and H700 lows is favorable for us. Big unknown with these secondary redevelopers is the exact nature of how it happens. I'd expect some more model turbulence with that today. Some things that look pretty likely across most models: - All trending NW with precip shield. - Possible change to rain/slot in SNE and BWI-DCA-PHL - Jackpot in eastern PA / WNJ - Mohawk Valley downslope(?) - Geneva to Roc seem favored (lake assisted?) - BGM wins again.

W and SW flow. We Toss.

Food thing Dave is asleep.

Ukie looks funky with a stream of snow into CNY...here's the total qpf thru 12Z Wed.

Timestomped!

Now that would be worth a Chase up to Toothless country.

W and SW flow. Noone cares.

Nice 700mb Fronotgenic forcing / UVV banding signature over CNY on the 0Z CMC. NAM has this further east and wrapped tighter.

Nice banding signature there over CNY. Hope its real.

Tug Hill isn't really a hill. It's a gradual rise in the land into a sort of plateau at a higher elevation. I guess there could be some downslope effect but I think that's more of a localized issue in cold air drainage during nights with optimal radiational cooling. Which is why KART can see some outrageously low temps on winter mornings, which are mixed out fairly quickly after sunrise. For large scale synoptic forcing, I wouldn't think it's that much of an effect. Maybe slight.

BGM may win the Golden Snowball this year at this rate. All the usual competitors are spitting the bit.

That's not really much of an effect. The elevation difference is pretty minimal. It's not like the Hudson Valley with the Berks to the east and even there it takes a unique set of conditions for it to be a large effect.

55.8"...LOL

Well, in trying to win these contests, I've generally found that taking the under is usually a good plan. And it's really hard to see where banding will occur, esp this far out. On the Canadian there is a banding signature in the MDT, PHL, BWI area. That is a wild card if it materialized. If I go with it and it is wrong, I have a large error and pretty much blows me up. And I could be too high in the NYC area up to BOS if the coastal front is strong and pushes inland quickly. OTOH, if the op Euro is right, I'm too low there as it puts out 2x what I have in and around SNE.

In this contest I play on, the lake effect cities in NY aren't included based on discussions about a decade or more ago. Reasoning is that the forecast is for synoptic storms and it becomes difficult to separate out what part of a verified report is synoptic snow vs lake effect in daily reports. So KSYR, KROC, KBUF are not included.

My Forecast Contest #s: CAR: 9 BGR: 4.5 PWM: 8.8 CON: 7.0 BTV: 4.5 BOS: 5.0 HYA: 1.5 ORH: 9.0 PVD: 4.5 BDR: 9.0 BDL: 7.5 ALB: 6.0 BGM: 8.5 ISP: 5.3 JFK: 5.0 ABE: 11.0 MDT: 14.0 PHL: 8.5 ACY: 2.0 EWR: 10.3 BWI: 7.5 IAD: 5.0 DCA: 3.8 SBY: 2.0 RIC: 2.3 ORF: 0.5 RDU: 0.0 Bonus: SYR 6.3 ROC 5.8 BUF 2.0

All models have shown the secondary stalling or doing, maybe, a bit of a cyclonic loop south of LI. Either that or they are struggling with where exactly place the slp for several periods. The NAM is the solution that bothers me most in that it doesn't throw precip back NW that much. Not saying it's right but that would be our biggest concern with this one.

Right? I have a fire going, Margaritas and watching the Night Stalker limited series on NFLX. I have to make my forecast in 1 hour. I hope the 0Z NAM doesn't lead me astray. Because I know it will.

Steady... people...

Geeziz H, do you guys want him to bring you a beer alao? Maybe wash and wax the vehicle?

My brother in NJ is decidedly reserved on this one. "I'll believe it when I see it..."

This is basically a Tuesday event for us so tomorrow's runs will confirm/deny this latest model trend. KBGM AND KBUF have basically tomorrow to figure this out.

SNE and LI better hope the Euro is right cuz GEM and GFS have a lot of coastal rain developing, which I could see with the usual Coastal front they contend with down into NJ.

Loving these 18z runs you guys are posting. Need to ingest them now and then one quick look at the 0Z NAM before 10p deadline tonight.

No the contest is for 27 different stations, from RDU in NC up to CAR in Maine. The foreacats are statistically scored looking at all the forecasts. So you are forecasting the whole system, not just one spot or area.