Syrmax
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Everything posted by Syrmax
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Random thoughts.
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It's an off hours run FFS. It also shows Dewey beat Truman on reanalysis.
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Yes, Its the Savants in the NE forum.
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That's just me hoovering the slp west.
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We're almost in Nowcast realm. After 00Z runs, for sure.
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Can you do an emergency relo to say, Ohio, for a day? Asking for friends.
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LOL. This thing is still a day out for us! Not even I am bringing out the Demotivational posters...yet.
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Maybe this gets updated but No. Saratoga cty is a WWA and Southern is a WSW? I guess maybe...
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I hear ya but it's still fun when a big one hits down there. I hope you cash in big. We seem to get fringed a lot and a lot of longer duration uncrippling events. But you're right... taking the long view.
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Well...in Mid Atl forum, looks like it's not being considered a bust but somewhat less then hoped for. NYC going wild since NWS just jacked up their totals to 18-24" for NNJ and NYC. We patiently wait...
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There no real rush to expand their headlines. They can wait till tomorrow a.m. probably. Unless things go awry with the actual development versus the virtual world...
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Yeah I think we will need lake enhancement to get us 6"+ and I think it will happen. Just going to take till midday Wed to get there....
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I know it's the NAM but look at how far NE it has shifted the bullseye...was down in SEPA yesterday and prior.
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Will probably never see another 1993 storm in my lifetime...here anyway. The scale of it would be hard to repeat. Sitting it out in SE CT with 5" of gruel was a big mistake.
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Not that it matters but I think BGM converts Watches to Warnings and puts up WWA for all later today. Thinking BUF puts up WWAs for most of their area save Orleans cty. Just ruminating here. The WAAs would be based on longer duration and risk...path of least regret.
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12Z Euro says...let's do this again next weekend! LOL.
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C'mon man!
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Favorite type of winter day today...deep snowcover, river iced up, cold with high overcast from impending storm obscuring the sun. LR model prospects also good. Didn't think we would get here this winter.
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I think that's exactly how SYR could do quite well out of this. Maybe we get ~5-6" from the main synaptics but then lake assist in the end gets us over the hump, so to speak. Seen it many times before. Takes a while but we get there...
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Was gonna say same...that brief rainy torch seemed locked in a few days ago. Not so much now, on multiple models.
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Yeah it was mega hyped pre storm. The Superstorm of 1993 was still a somewhat recent event in people's memories. It Seemed locked in for a couple of days...and then reality happened. I also don't trust Miller B's ever since then. Frankly, if SYR to ROC bag 4-6" from this I'd walk away considering it a win.
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I made out ok in SECT with that one, about 10" but anyone from DC -> NYC was royally effed. The Gov of CT had all interstates closed to trucks for a day while...basically nothing happened. Storm was slow to wind up and jackpot was way far north into NE in the end IIRC. Feet of snow for some ended up a few inches and lots of slot.
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One thing that i think will be frustrating for most of us in SYR -> ROC is that we will have to wait for "our turn" while we see areas S&E get raked tonight and Monday. This is really a Mon night and Tues event here. Assuming it happens...
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Yeah, I've been noticing same down there...I'm not sure this is their best setup as the low really tucks in close. I am still chastened by the infamous March 2000 Miller B fiasco. Reality, and what models predict, can be quite different, even close in ti the event. We'll see.
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If NAM and SREFs correct my forecast contest #s are in trouble down in the DC to PHL and MDT area. The jackpot seems to be shifting North with time on all models. Shocked face.
