Syrmax

We might get a couple inches. Not holding my breath but the possibility is there.

Fixed, for you know who @TugHillMatt....

To be clear...IF this were to materialize, i think it would be VD3.0. The original was quite a ways back (80s/90s) and VD2.0 was about 10 years ago? I was living here for VD2.0 and it was a solid 2-3 day event with the wraparound/enhancement about as solid as the fully synoptic front end. About 20-22" here IIRC.

Agree 100%. That track would be problematic to remain all snow for most of us. I haven't looked closely at what the various models have a week from now as I've been more interested in how many strike outs Ol' Man Winter is going to get against us here prior to that. I'm hoping to at least foul tip a few...

KBGM's current AFD disco of the post-clipper LES on WNW seems decidedly unimpressed although LES Freaks skew-Ts looked pretty good for us WNW flow losers: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures turn much colder Tuesday night with a cold Canadian airmass in place behind the exiting system, falling back into the teens. Persistent west/northwest flow will keep in chances for lingering lake effect snow showers, and thus additional light accumulations, southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Light snow totals generally below an inch are expected. Otherwise, expect more breaks in the clouds while temperatures peak in the 20s.

It's over. On to the next event. Spring!

Heavy Flurries here on and off. Accumulation...Less Than Minimum Detectable.

Not sure really. I think there's an element of randomness to it. Failing that, the usual reasons likely at play: downsloping, increasing sun angle, dryslotting, W/WSW Flow, global warming, bad karma.

I just did a 12/18Z model scan for the ne.wx forecast contest for storm #3 this season. The only model I've seen putting out 6"+ virtually anywhere other than Nova Scotia seems to be the 12/18Z NAM and 12z Euro. And pretty well confined to coastal areas and interior NC/VA

KBGM's AFDs of late have been excellent reads. Not sure if there's a new forecaster working or we just don't see this one that often due to schedule rotation.

Your snow is being censored and deplatformed!

The next week looks utterly confusing at this point. Sun, Tues, Fri, plus various LES possibilities. I'm just rolling with whatever happens at this point, figuring I'll nickel and dine my way to last year's #weaksauce 87" total.

Agreed. Two days of sunshine and milder temps at this point are welcome IMBY. This is no torch, just a respite. And I get to wear my sunglasses when driving for a change!

Do we need to get LES Freak going also?

Better than nothing. We're used to feeding off the scraps around here.

That maxima over the Tug...I see what you did there.

38F this morning at KSYR! its 33F here now. Only 0.04" liquid qpf overnight and 0.1" snow, so there must have been some rain. Feels colder with some breeze though and no sun. The picture for Sun through Tues looks really confused on the various models to say the least.

00Z GooFuS showing a lot of activity thru 192-204 hrs. Granted, looks like a lot of light/med synoptic events but those can change. I suspect we are in for a pretty good Feb. I'm not wringing my hands over anything beyond 4 or 5 days. Though the Sun/Mon idea looks lost at this point, synoptically.

One positive thought in thinking about the next 6-8 weeks...SYR-ROC-BUF-ART(?) have been well below avg snow while many areas, even in upstate, are near avg, or above normal snowfall thusfar. BUF & ART look to make up some ground in the next several days to week. I would think some mean reversion is favored going forward if the pattern can hold. I would need about 3 feet of snow just to get to last winters paltry total (87"). That's not unreasonable given the ticky tack nature of snowfall here. However, getting to within 10% of normal would need to double my totals (52") thusfar, which is not unreasonable for these parts if we keep a favorable pattern. The flip side is that the damage is done and we we will barely get to last year's totals even with normal snowfall from here on out. Glass is half full or half empty....

No.

Glad to see the model CJ in full swing.

We are basically inside 4-5 days for the early week system. Seems that the early week storm will be weaker/suppressed on the GFS, EC, models. I think that one is gone, for us, unless there is a major trend adjustment starting like, today...

BGM +2.4 SYR +3.6 AVP +4.5 ALY +0.7 POU +3.4 BUF +4.5 You can find these records and other data at any NWS site and click on Climate and Past Weather on the homepage. Edit: a quick look at December #s showed similar + departures but slightly less in magnitude, generally. The uunderproduction in snow for SYR/ROC/BUF made these 2 months feel like busts until mid/late January.

How's everything else going healthwise? You can DM is you would rather not put that out here. Just hoping for the best...

Syracuse, Hancock Field was at 10.1" including today based on the CF6 report for the Month thusfar. Not sure if today's 1.8" will be increased in the final number after midnight. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bgm