Syrmax

Been perusing the various warnings and watches nationwide. Snow and ZR in coastal Louisiana and TX...temps 4cast down to 20 in extreme south TX and the cold up in the upper midwest. February is delivering...

It's the NAM still outside its "zone", if it has one. Remain Calm.

I have that. Doesnt work well on long loops. I have about 4.5 acres looped and I lose signal when I get (not even) halfway out. So I abandoned using it. Brute force using splice points to sectionalize.is the only way I have to identify a break area or "weak" section.

Brutal day today. My electronic buried wire dog fence went down and my Siberian husky figured it out in only a few hours while I was watching soccer. Spent 2 hrs hunting him down as he refuses to listen when he gets loose. Huskies are notorious Houdini's. Then...spent the next 5 hours trying to find the break, snowshoeing back and forth in the yard (5 acres), splicing wires, getting up and down a lot to dig out a foot of snow just to reach the mostly frozen ground underneath to find wire runs etc. Finally got it working at dark but had to sectionalize it to a smaller area for now. Will continue tomorrow as from the look of things, the 12-15" snowpack (18+" in drifts) is going to substantially grow here soon. Having a glass or two of wine, my old bones are feeling it.

Cold stretch in Europe also. Watching my football team Borussia Dortmund play and there is snow piled up a bit in the (empty) stands. Haven't seen that in years it seems.

If modelology stays roughly as is, they will post WSWs eventually. I am fairly confident of that. And if they don't, do we really care? Gives us something to cackle about!

I believe it depends exactly which met is doing the AFD. Particularly at KBGM. we all noticed a much more detailed writeup/tone with some KBGM AFDs recently but clearly there is a different author attm. I'm sure its same scenario as KBUF. And to be fair, the event is 2+ days out yet. It's not like we've never seen models go into the ditch w/in 3 days before...

I noticed that. Granted, the system is still 2+ days away as of the AFD time but still...

Thx. I had written off sat night as gone. And I thought the mon night / tues system was one event but I havent been following As The Model Turns today.

Even a Yuge week barely gets my location to within sight of last season's shitty 87". I blame @TugHillMattThings were rolling along just fine till he got here.

Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week. I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something? This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models. Or is there another one Yoda?

True, you don't want to go all Joe Bastardi on the public and be mongering Cat 5 hurricane equivalence (as he has been doing with Texas this week), and then look like a jackazz when it verifies as just another moderate event.

No WSW flow to natter on about so they must be Butthurt.

Looks a lot better than than it did a couple/few days ago.

Who are we kidding? The max snow will end up N&W as @wolfie09 hijacks the storm. Again.

Sou'easter!

Agreed. One or two of these should deliver over the next week. Or I'm calling Mayflower Van lines to get @TugHillMatt t.f. outta here.

UKie seems to be the outlier with the Tuesday system... and I think is mostly what got the chatter ratcheted up about the potential system.

I just measured 1.8" here and almost 30:1 ratio. High fluff.

That includes the GFS whiff on Sunday. After the tues/wed storm it's a cutter parade. We will need a decent March just to get to last year's miserly totals. Per GFS, of the next 5 systems to affect eastern US, 2 are supressed, 1 a decent hit, and 2 cutters. Actually, not hard to believe. We may be back to bare ground by March.

Except for LES prone areas, we rarely see significant snowstorms after already having a deep base on ground. Usually we melt most of it with a warm up (not this time) or just sublimate in dry conditions (yes) until the next cutter and mild spell. So this predisposes me to think the next 7-10 days will play out with some variation of this. Supressed system tomorrow, weak system Sunday, bigger cutter with mixed precip tues/wed then cool down and weak/moderate system following up. It'll add up the snow totals but be somewhat disappointing.

I would love to buy a small place up that way for weekend retreats. I think we all discussed this in the past. Still a thought i have rattling around.

With none verifying as shown even a few days in advance in all likelihood as per recent experience.

Yeah, the last one was like that and the LES mostly a no show for several of us. Now the weekend system looks like crap also. I see a trend.

Nice to see that. We don't have that here. Because IT BARELY SNOWS!