Syrmax

Agreed. No doubt on forecast improvements, writ large. There's a certain amount of frustration that happens in situations like this, when forecasts bust or change significantly at the last moment, which happens quite a bit. I think the public 'demand' for accuracy is perhaps understandable but also based on complete ignorance...and that can drive your profession in ways that aren't maybe the most 'science based.' Just my observation, but that's a whole 'nuther discussion you are better versed in.

I would have bought that argument, esp considering the strength and position of the arctic high to the NW. I dunno, the chaos of the real world systems makes it interesting....

I'll bet many would have. And I-m talking Mets that practiced in the 60s-90s mainly. It was interesting reading back before your time but you might have enjoyed it.

I read a few papers on this years ago (early 00s) on this very subject. Experienced meteorologists were just starting to see the profession start over-relying in shiny model output and their graphics as opposed to developing knowledge of synoptics... a lot of which can be experience based. And it's easier to CYA by blaming a model versus your professional judgment. Us weenies of course, minimally trained in the fundamentals, would be expected to fall into these traps. We might be learning a bit this year though. Its via the errors and suprises that we learn oftentimes. The school of hard knocks so to speak. Any moron can rip n read a model output graphic...

If this pans out...How T F are these models so wrong, even a day out? I hesitate to even look at model soundings as they're so grossly wrong even a day out. It's just another layer of sh!t. The old timer meteorologists hated this over reliance on models (modelology) versus understating the synoptic setup. And they were right.

@LakeEffectKing summed it up good earlier today...every mile N&W is going to matter bigly with this system. I have no doubt we turnover ti IP at some points but hopefully later in the game than earlier. My thinking of 3-6" around SYR still feels about right.

Flake size is sub optimal but we'll see how this plays out. Maybe if we get some decent lift in the SGZ we might get better accumulation. No idea if this is likely though as I haven't investigated soundings yet. And even then, they are model soundings, which are sh!t anyway. GIGO.

Thurs system will fizzle into nothing. It's over modeled right now.

Updated KBGM map. I think it's too high. The lower 9/10 probability map looks better, for snow.

The sounding that Freak posted yesterday (?) was cause for concern regarding snow growth zone. Looks like ZR/IP/RN will be the dominant precip type south and east of Lake Ontario. Brutal.

I'm in Cicero still. Nothing falling here yet.

I'm golfing (Indoor) so hopefully I can back down off the ledge afterwards by taking a sabbatical from models for a while.

Wut da JMA got? Asking for a friend...

Bingo! Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 36 times...I'm a doofus for the GooFuS!

That Storm is dead to me.

Yeah 10:1 is probably about right for the snowfall part of the event here. No Kuchie magic here. I plan on being asleep during the 6-8 hours of the storm overnight so my melted equivalents will probably be lower than 10:1 factoring in any PL/IP.

CNY, we torch, then slot. Love it!! Will be living vicariously thru you all in WNY!

Doesn't look that way attm. But we probably will when the Big Dog snows of April and May arrive.

Looks like its time for us CNYers to wrap our brains around this becoming the "Expected" snowfall for this event (and probably High End for late week system). We coulda been a Contenda!

Welp, this nasty turn of events at least frees up the balance of the week from wanting to stay up late and track the storms. My sleep schedule will appreciate it. Should we rename the thread title? Back to Back Kicks in the Loaf?

You just know there is a met sitting in a local NWS office reading all this and now cackling.

Could be. I tend to discount LES, mostly bc it ends up just north of me, but these are the setups where my area can pile on with post storm lake snow. VD2 was a prime example.

Yeah, this is a great time for us snow dorks. I think the mix line will end up something near what the Canadian and Euro have been showing. And if some sleet mixes in IMBY, so what? I get 8" vs 10. The BGM to ALB corridor looks to be the screw zone.

Model gyrations are why I don't make snow calls early. The ne.wx storm #4 contest deadline is 10pm tonight. I like to get a last minute look at the 00Z NAM and 18Z GFS so that I know what's NOT going to happen.