Syrmax

I forget what I graded last winter as (here near SYR) but given 88" of total snow and an avg of 125", and the usual mid Dec to mid Jan snoozefest, it couldn-t have rated better than a C-. This one isn't even up to that level yet....its a D in my book so far, and that's a big improvement from the solid F as of mid January.

I think this will be a classic whipsaw for weenie world. I see it in stock trading all the time. Now that we are all burned we will discount the next storm and it will overachieve.

Ok, since the subject of driveway clearing types came up...here is mine, freshly snowblowed. No help from my Supervisor either. Losing ground out near the mailbox but it's a glacier there.... And its snowing again. Real flakes. How odd.

For those still somehow still greedy folks in CNY, or desperate, pathetic, weenies (like me), here's a GooFuS sounding for Sat a.m. I am not an expert on LES parameters (or anything really) but I notice the sounding for this point in time has WNW/NW direction, low shear thru the lower levels and an inversion up to about 800mb level, which isn't that impressive...but we could get some fake snow out of this near SYR area.

06Z GooFuS sounding for KSYR @ midpoint of upcoming system. Looks promising. For now. Omega aligned with DGZ, RH decent and saturated column.

Congrats Ottawa looks to be appropriate? Perhaps Hudson Bay should be gearing up?

A day or so before the storm, one of our forum regulars, @CNY-LES FREAK posted a model sounding, i forget which one, and it showed a mismatch between Omega and the DGZ...which gave me pause but even then it wasn't showing the warmth up above at all. But...it was accurate in that dendrite size/type was more "needly" and sub-optimal. Which made me think the Cucaracha's were going to bust.

Very true, the snowpack will be more resilient after this Portland Cement deposition. Which isn't a bad thing. We all got taken for a ride on this storm, even the pros.

How ironic and Iconic. To be fair, ICON was probably the first to sniff out trouble was brewing. We scoffed at it of course.

My final ratio was 5.9:1. I never saw any Cucaracha maps with ratios that low.

More like La Cucaracha maps.

Up to 63.3" for the season. Only 2 feet MOAR needed to reach last season's paltry total. We will probably get there but it'll be like pulling teeth and may need to go into Extra Time. I had thoughts we would get there this week but clearly that was just weeniethought.

4.5" of cement on 0.76" melted equivalent. The models got the total qpf about right (for here) as I was seeing a spread of about 0.65-0.90" liquid in the various blizzards of model outputs over the past days. Hard to get too enthused about the late week storm given the shambolic episode we just went through. Hopefully we can bag a couple/few inches of fake snow tonight before the real fakery at end of week.

We are officially full pinging. 4" snowfall so far.

Updated thickness lines 0600Z

Was maybe the issue that the slp track was wrong? IIRC, most models had the slp on the east side of the Apps...and this clearly isn't the case.

If we outperform BUF n ROC I'll be amazed. Bewildered but amazed. BTW our forecast has 4" tues night.. assuming that's LES....

My PnC still has 6" of snow and sleet tonight. Might get close if we hang on to snow another hour or two...

Juat measured... still all snow and 3.5" thusfar.

Yeah I'd be real curious to understand what happened. It wasn't as if just one model was off...and pre storm...as @OSUmetstud mentioned, one could make a case that this thing would have been shredded or even pushed SE. Yet, the exact opposite happened. Wondering if the initialization / input data was off somehow. Seems unlikely though.

Here's what I was looking for on SPC site. We are all going over soon.

Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...Western into northern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 160106Z - 160630Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Canadian border in western and northern New York this evening, most likely by 9-10 PM EST. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch an hour are possible. DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough is currently moving northeastward out of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio per water vapor imagery. As this feature continues into the Northeast this evening, a surface cyclone will deepen in Pennsylvania and New England. 850-700 hPa frontogenetical lift along the Canadian border aided by approaching mid-level ascent will promote 1+ inch per hour snowfall rates this evening. An area of heavier precipitation in northeastern Ohio will likely enter western New York by 9-10 PM EST. A stronger warm nose (nearly +4 C) observed on the 00Z PBZ sounding has kept precipitation more mixed to the south, but the observed 00Z BUF sounding shows a profile fully supportive of snow. Warm advection in the low to mid-levels should remain weak enough thaat precipitation remains as snow. Peak snowfall rates appear likely in the 11 PM to 3 AM EST period when mid-level ascent in the dendritic growth layer will be maximized.

Well, this says a lot...I cant get the other displays such as the mixing lines on SPCs website on an android phone as their website is godawful.

Wow.

Link no good...