Syrmax

12Z ICON kind of smashes the slp. This one could be a miss in the SE direction and weaker than progged recently. GFS a little better but not great either. Maybe 3-4" up to SYR/BUF. Edit: that's 6Z GFS

Damn. Looks like Matt passed the Jonah off onto me this time.

Whopping 1.3" on 0.06" Liquid equiv. So we are 3 for 3 in terms of busts so far in this "week to remember'. I'm including last weekends appetizer that slowly fizzled to flurries in this count. Two more "events" to go this week including the WNW flow possible this weekend after the synoptic storm goes by.

The inversion height is pretty low with this, only up to 800mb, based on the sounding I looked at...so some low topped stuff could be sneaking under the radar beam. Can still produce. Forecasts look reasonable in aggregate. We may squeak out the 3-4" forecast here, north of Rt 31.

Yeah we're done here. Intermittent snow. I havent measured but prob just about 2" here.

Looking at the west end of the lake, the band is sinking onshore. I think we will lose most of this soon. Not sure if it will reorient later overnight, probably needs some sort of short wave passing thru to do that. LEK gave a good lesson on band orientation on the east end of the lake years ago. I think frictional effects and the orientation of the southern shoreline combine to play a role in tending to keep lake bands a bit north of here as they roll off the east end of the lake.

Personally, I'll give a rats azz about NWP output for the next system after the 12Z runs tomorrow, and more likely the following 00Z Thurs runs. There's been almost no value in any of these model runs up until 24 hrs ahead of time this season.

About an inch here as we flirt with the southern edge of the lake band, which still looks disorganized. It may come together yet but its tricky on these WNW setups. My $ would be on just a bit north of me, similar to the 12/29 WNW event...and I'm almost on the border with Oswego cty.

Try to enjoy what we have. It's been a solid month at least. We've seen worse...

18Z takes the next system out towards Bernuda but the loosely connected primary low scoots inland over CNY with air directly from the Tropics.

NAM still isn't in its sweet spot yet. That happens about 6 hours before any storm onset. Sometimes later.

Yeah, I'm surprised they didnt wait till tomorrow morning given model differences and recent performance. Of course a Watch isn't putting all your chips on the table either.

HERPES looks good for our area.

Fixed.

Thinking the same here. We won't get ~0.7" liquid (probably 1/3rd) but the snowfall will possibly meet or exceed the "Big Storm". I had better check myself or I might start sounding like I have respect for WNW flow LES.

I just checked my records. We did have a 7" snowfall on 12/29 but that melted down by 1/1. From that point till 1/18 we had an inch or less snow depth with a few days of 0. A few minor sprays of LES kept a minimal on/off snow cover in that period. Since then it's been ramping up with a max depth of 17" following the 2/3 storm. In fact, we had virtually no snow in Nov and for most of Dec we had an inch or less cover excepting the 12/29-30th and from 12/18-23 where max depth was only ~3".

Snippet from Chicago AFD: Wednesday PM through Monday... In this remarkable stretch, with Chicago having seen measurable snow on 12 of the 16 days of February including today and going back to January 25th, 16 of the past 23 days with measurable snow, snow has found little excuse to occur. This again is looking to be the case on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with a sheared short-wave, upper jet support and isentropic ascent contributing to a round of light snow with accumulations under 1".

Agree. In a winter with decent snowpack (which is where we are at today), we usually reach max snow pile depth along my driveway (and yard) in early March. After mid month it starts the melt. Sun angle takes its toll even if we don't exactly torch.

Those poor b@stards down in SE PA. I feel their upcoming pain.

ICON says Jawohl!

KBGM Afternoon AFD update snippet: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1230 PM Update... The approaching cold front was located east of Syracuse, Cortland, and Ithaca, and just west of Rome, Binghamton, and Towanda as of midday. A few snow showers were beginning to develop along the front, and are likely to increase in coverage as it pushes to the east over the next few hours. High temperatures will likely be set in the next 1 to 3 hours, with temperatures expected to drop back below freezing behind the front. Most near term changes are with hourly temperatures and wind shift associated with the cold front, and increasing PoPs this afternoon. Any snowfall through sunset will be light, but some isolated heavier showers could drop just under an inch of snow in places. This evening`s lake effect snow band still looks like a good bet along and north of the Thruway, including around SYR. Max snowfall of 3 to 5 may be possible by morning over northern Onondaga, northwestern Madison, and western Oneida counties.

I spent an hour snowblowing this cement and making sorta straight lines. And you are saying it was "a chore" to clean your car off. Its no wonder we can't get a proper snowstorm in here.

I hesitate to mention this but our PnC for No. Onondaga cty has 3" tonight. Right across the river in Phoenix (KBUF), it is 4-8". Most interesting.

They are on one side! The mailbox side looking ragged though. I was trying to cut it back this a.m. but its icy. It did have an aesthetically pleasing curve to it prior. It is kind of bothering me.

When do we lock this in? Saturday morning?