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Syrmax

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Everything posted by Syrmax

  1. I saw that...The area you are in usually performs much better than further south into CNY/WNY in this type pattern for the usual reasons. May not result in significant snowfall but latitude, proximity to retreating, marginal cold air sources and geographic effects usually result in whiter outcomes as fast moving weak systems zip along in the flow.
  2. Good point. I think most of us weenies expected significant mixing due to a variety of factors, including climo, system track, cold air availability, and knowledge of past similar events. NWS did also as virtually anyone paying attention realizes the "warm nose" frequently overperforms...or is under-modeled. I was slightly hopeful of a whiter outcome based on the relative weakness of the system but that didn't prevent the warm nose from dominating the event here.
  3. Apparently, I can just stay here and wait for the Global Warming to Sizzle things up. I mean, that 1C change will really make a difference in the rest of my lifespan. Cold this a.m. most unsatisfactory.
  4. This may seem hard to believe but in the recent past (3 or 4 years ago, maybe 5 now, before the Jonah settled here ) we had an Xmas eve no. Onondaga / so. Oswego cty LES special that gave us 5 or 6" that was very underpredicted. So, hope does exist around the lakes even when synoptic looks like a loser.
  5. There's always something magical about Mothers Day snow.
  6. Yup. This forum pretty well nailed the expectation that this was coming and discounted the various NWP snowfall projections.
  7. This is what winter in much of western Europe is like. Seasons Beatings are upon us! Watching my football team now, Borussia Dortmund. Trying their best to also underperform. Looks gray and murky in Berlin.
  8. Maybe. Who knows. I don't recall a great LES signature on the backside but anything is possible when it comes to scratching out trivial snowfalls here.
  9. Took a measurement before this melts. I tried but only 7/8". Not even a proper inch. Good job to all the NWP that showed 3-6" here pretty consistently. Mix of shite flakes and pingers now
  10. Better looking flake size here the past several minutes. Ground fully white. We'll see if it can hang on here...
  11. Thats a cutter profile for sure. Blocking in all the wrong places. Fast Forwarding to May would be best at this point.
  12. Prima facie evidence of non-CO2 based Climate Change. cc: @TugHillMatt
  13. I still remember the last time the HRRR nailed one way back in 1965.
  14. This looks believeable based on past experience here. Bring the changeover line right IMBY. Maybe @TugHillMatt and I stay 70-80% snow but pingers or outright rain likely to chop off an inch or so (figuring 3-4" is a max scenario). So I'd expect 2-3" here. Meh. At least it's not Fake Snow!
  15. Can we shift those anomalies to the Northeast? We're getting screwed. Again.
  16. Greatest December ever! 63 at 9pm. If this is Global Warming I'm a buyer.
  17. Fifty Six degrees this a.m. That's Ballin! Agree that lower ratios and warmer ground temps should lower snow totals. We are headed for mid 60's today...
  18. Exactly. You won't be the Jonah robbing anyone of major amounts of snow!
  19. I saw plenty of purty Unabomber shacks up in St. Lawrence County driving around on storm duty. Many in "move in" condition!
  20. Sq I tend to agree for BUF -> SYR. The hills may bag an inch or two but the warm nose or flat out warm sector will keep any meaningful frozen from the ADKs over to Central NE and interior Maine.
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