Syrmax

Absolutely agree. The upstream energy has to dive sharply SE and with right timing to merge/caoture/restrain the lead slp.

Here's a site that's a wealth of info. Skew-T Basics WX Prediction - Haby Hints I've been thru a lot of Haby's site years ago and took a couple of met courses at WCSU many moons ago, back in the Dr. Mel era in early 1990s. He was a fab person.. Was interesting to study as a hobbyist after finishing an MSEE and being a nuclear power plant operator. The science and math behind meteorology was largely old hat by then. If you have basic science knowledge you can get to know enough about soundings to be dangerous.

Agree. That's the scenario that's "safest" for the Mid Atlantic people IMO. Or something like the Megalopolitan Storm of 1983, which wasn't so much a bowling ball as just a far enough offshore solution to bone everybody not on the I-95 corridor (I was in BGM at the time and still remember the pain of that sh*tshow). I figured out we were screwed just by observing sky conditions that day, and listening to a scratchy WCBS 880 radio signal reporting the heavy snow down there. We had a WSW for 1-2 feet of snow as late as the evening prior...it didn't scar me though.

Speaking of NAM, look at this sounding for KSYR 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday eve). 0F... Cold and mofo'ing dry... Brrrr

NAM has a closed H500 feature as the system enters the US in NE Montana. It will come up with some crazed solution if it keeps that in next 2 days.

One thing I'm interested in observing is whether the major operational and ensemble models move together over the next few days and converge (as they roughly have now) or will we get a significant divergence develop. A divergence would really throw a spanner in the works for a major storm even occurring, much less where... At D5/6 ensembles will always be a mess. Permutations over that long a period result in a lot of noise. The fact that the major ens means are roughly aligned now is interesting. They've all ingested similar data and used their various algos to crank out similar solutions and responded to whatever changed in a similar manner.

The last 2 or 3 series of NWP runs have shown a neg tilt trough, depends how soon and how much phasing occurs. If the Trailing s/w energy doesn't dig enough or is too slow, the lead s/w will miss phasing and ride out to sea as a weaker system, as shown previously. The setup is pretty good overall. Not seeing any problem with that.

5/20 hits, better than 3/20 on 12Z. A couple others could be hits but their timing might be off. IMO the next several runs of the various ensembles will tip the hand as to whether all the GFS/EC/CMC op runs are western outliers or are onto something. The op mods are supposed to be more skilled. The fact that the usual suspects (JMA/NAVGEM/UKMET) are out to sea vs the others makes sense from a typical model bias standpoint, FWIW. Edit: Ukie 12Z not out to sea, just slower than GFS, has a 986mb low going over Caoe Hatteras at 144h. (GFS is inland from HAT and sooner). No idea what Ukie does after that but...it has a vertically stacked low at the base of a negatively tilted trough. Hard to see that riding out ENE over the BM.

Think of all the last minute model mayhem and wasted energy you'll be missing if the Monday storm actually looks real by then.

What's interesting is not out west so much as downstream evolution. The ridge out western CONUS is pretty much depicted same way in last 4 runs...downstream a different story with how the lead system gets handled. Something to look at. One thing is certain..this is gonna be a long rest of week...

That's about 3 of 20 members supporting the op GFS. Not exactly inspiring.

Red Sky at Night, Sailors delight. Red Sky in morn' weenies be warn'd

We need modeling to cut too far west so that it can jog back east! #Modelology

Ok, so I'm lifting a Twitter graphic from #HeWhoShallNotBeNamed (the infamous DT/wxrisk) but his discussions are usually interesting. He even seems to have cleaned up his non-mastery of basic spelling.

Lost in the chatter today is its pretty effin cold. I have 7 degrees at 3pm...

True, we did stop the Evil Empire x2, esp with the spectre of the "Perfect Season" hanging over everyone's heads.

The big swings the past, I'll say, 2+ days are concerning but not unusual. We want to see the op and ensembles start converging on a roughly consistent scenario each 12hr cycle. I hate getting too wrapped up in every 6hr update as the SNR gets too high so I just try to evaluate on 12 hr runs. I have to start looking at upper air maps and esp upstream to see if any of this makes sense. We know there will be an eastern trough, I wonder about the 50/50 low upstream.

I just re-tallyed my data, up to 29.6" for the season. SizzleCock (KSYR) is at 22.1" You are probably closer to my number or even a touch higher. We're still well below normal but the gap is closing...dusting by dusting...

Euro/CMC had a back to back solution a couple days ago then lost it all S&E. Now it looks like it's back. This is good. Too bad it's almost a week out. Thinking Thurs/Friday runs will be huge to see if NWP stabilizes on any consesus. Saturday runs could be the most important ones of our lives.

Wow. That would shut up our whining for at least a few days.

As a Giants fan...i wouldn't exactly be dishing from a position of strength...

100%. Maybe the Dolphins ex-HC is a better option than Judge? He seemed to have no problem turning 1-7 into 8-9... Giants are attritioning their younger fan base. This is part of why there are so many Stealer, Cowboy, Raiders and Dolphins fans in my generation, from the northeast writ large. In the 60s and 70s the Giants, Jets, Bills and Patriots mainly stunk. So younger people gravitated to the successful teams of that era. Call it front running but it is what it is. I myself haven't sat down to watch more than than a handful of full Giants matches in 3 or 4 years, esp after about mid-season when they're 6/7 losses deep. What's the point?

Yeah, likely more mistakes from NYG Ownership keeping Judge IMO. If you're changing GMs and need to revamp (again) why not let the new GM be involved with Staff selection? Or maybe they already have chosen a new GM behind the scenes and he is ok with Judge.

My Siberian would eat her dog. ,;) Total of 5" here, added 3/4" overnight. Always take the under, which was 6" this time.

That's why we don't look at ensembles.