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Syrmax

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Everything posted by Syrmax

  1. Syrmax
    NAM crushing the usual snowbelts of Alabama and Tennessee.
  2. Syrmax
    Another thing while we wait for 12Z...regarding Miller A vs B. March 1993 is regarded as a classic Miller A but even it had "center jumps" in the SE US (at least on modeling) as I recall. That doesn't make it a Miller B or even much of a hybrid. Some NWP runs with this system seem to be hinting at same occurring but I suspect it's more an artifact of the model trying to locate the slp over time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to see that happen though IRL as the system makes the turn in the SE US.
  3. Syrmax
    If we are going to get significant op model shifts as systems over the PAC move onshore and become better sampled, I look for that to occur in the next 2/3 major model cycles (0/12z). So by Sat 0Z we should have good confidence in solution. 06Z GEFS still looks bizarre with about 1/3rd of its members out near Bermuda. It's mean may end up being correct but perhaps for the wrong reasons. Or those outlier ens members end up being savants...
  4. Syrmax
    2 more major model cycles to go (0/12z) to see if we get a eastward shift going before it's w/in 48 hrs. Been consistent last 3 cycles now...
  5. Syrmax
    Thanks. No idea on details but i wonder if the op model changes over the past few days have anything to do with these flight's data? Every single op model shows same track idea over the last 2-4 0/12z cycles whereas most were OTS prior. Frankly, I'm hoping this ends up a touch east like the rest of your forum. 0Z EC slots the hell out of CNY...
  6. Syrmax
    Oof, CNY slots Bigly. Can we get an east jog started at 12Z? This seems nuts.
  7. Syrmax
    0Z Euro. 0 op models supporting a run to the BM or halfway to Bermuda, despite several GFS ensembles members insisting on it, which is why the GooFuS ens mean is skewed east. Could change...
  8. Syrmax
    Check the NE forum (yeah, I know) there is a post from Twitter about special sampling that has been done of the system in the PAC. Was likely ingested into the 00Z runs. It's not as much of a black hole area as it usually is. Attached part of the tweet here.
  9. Syrmax
    Face it. Your'e in for a penny, in for a pound.
  10. Syrmax
    Noody's waiting up for the 00Z NAVGEM but even it was jacking us at 18Z. If there is a major shift in all NWP in the next 2 days it would have to go down as one of the great model #fails of all time. Even the JMA is onboard at this point. It would be like the Patriots blowing a 5 touchdown lead against SU in the 2nd half...
  11. Syrmax
    Nice pickup. Notice how half of its various members aren't trying to make a jailbreak to Bermuda... Though I see one near Jamestown...which is basically Jonestown for Upstate weenies...
  12. Syrmax
    That reminds me, PSA here, if anyone wants to use the term Death Band, take it to some other forum. Or know that the evil eye of Sauronmax will be forever upon you.
  13. Syrmax
    GoiFuS hinting at some wraparound / LES after the storm pulls out which could be a bonus or save our ass. It's also showing a conga lone of Clippers diving SE with Lake response thru the rest of the run.
  14. Syrmax
    TWC showing up at Armory Square would be worse. Having them interview you live would prolly result in a flash Sizzle changeover to RN+...
  15. Syrmax
    There's at least a couple halfway to Bermuda. C'mon man...there's your ens mean being east.
  16. Syrmax
    We have @TugHillMattwhat could go wrong?
  17. Syrmax
    Whatever plays out this system will be instructive regarding the use of ensembles...
  18. Syrmax
    Gotta see what the Euro brings. I'm still not a buyer of the GFS slp track...ORF to Leesburg VA to MDT and over BGM to about Mt Marcy? Probably some resolution issues but ORF to NW VA is a NW track over VA and then NNE. Weird.
  19. Syrmax
    100-150 W/NW of h850 is the old rule of thumb I've been taught. You can be under the h700 closed low and do very well for SN production. But yeah a bit NW also works.
  20. Syrmax
    I'm a bit surprised that (looking at h500) with s/w 3 acting as a kicker and not merging or phasing with s/w 2 that the slp is that strong and on the coast or inland a bit. I'd have thought opposite would happen.
  21. Syrmax
    Driveway glazed here but IP also mixed in sitting right at 32.5F. Of course KSizzle Airport reporting 35F with all other surrounding reports at 33/34 F.
  22. Syrmax
    Fair Warning D6-u-FJXYAIvxxi.mp4
  23. Syrmax
    Oh noes! You've gone and done it...
  24. Syrmax
    I think this is the most likely eventual track FWIW.
  25. Syrmax
    I think places got away from sand as it makes a mess. They might justify salt over sand based on the added cost of spring cleanup of sand. Which may or may not be real. This could be part of why a lot/most of Oswego County still uses a lot of sand? And...the "more affluent" locales probably had a lot of pre-snowflake era whining about how everything looks sooo dirty after heavy periods of sanding.
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