Syrmax

It's Thursday night. Two days left for this to evolve. (Out to the BM LOL)

The snowbelts of Tenesee always rake.

That's a subject I am not broaching here, or even in OT...

Everyone's a smart ass. You'll get what's coming to you Mr. Smart Guy.

All these public Mets and NWS Staff have all been burned before...and there's always tomorrow to hype the bejesus out of it...

Saw that. Not sure if we have any posters there but I feel their pain.

Plot spoiler...they look great.

I'll cut you slack this one time as I am racked with covid boosters and shingles vax and frankly need to start drinking to fight this off. #Science

Use of the term D+$%&band is void where prohibited. Which would be here. Unless one wants to be known As booger eating zit Faced f÷*&tard weenie. This applies to red taggers also. Are we clear?

Very thin ice people are skating on

I don't see any mid or upper level xfer that's obvious. There are closed height features that remain closed from the sfc up to at least 500mb from the Mississippi River Valley and on E and NE. There's no dying primary, maybe NWP latching onto some secondary centers...

I need to break out my Kocin/Ucellini books and check that. Certainly isn't a classic Miller B.

Agree. And there's a full 48 hrs left for model 2nd thoughts to appear. We've all seen big changes w/in 48 hrs too many times to count. In fact, despite op model consistency, we're probably violating the axiom to not get too up/down about storms 4-5 days out...

Yes, also remember the back to back noreasters in Dec/Jan 2002 that had 24+ with pockets over 30" for the first one. There was also a major noreaster 3, 4, 5 years back that jackpotted the same I-88 and NE area with 2'+. I remember as actual Blizzard Warnings were put up mid storm for the Oneonta and surrounding areas. My vague recollections think it's better than a 1 in 10 year return probability...maybe closer to 1 in 5 years.

Wouldn't bank on 30" anywhere but 18-24" looks doable esp with any Lake Enhancement. We've seen major snowstorms drop 24-30" upstate where the def zone / pivot occurs. It's not exactly a rare event.

At this time range, i wouldn't get too hung up on qpf, its maybe the most unreliable panel overall. Look at the H500 & H700 tracks...damn near perfect for CNY/WNY...just to our east from south/central PA to roughly Albany while still strengthening. That's money.

Barring a sig shift in NWP in the next day or two...Big Q up here is whether / how much we dryslot in CNY. 0Z Euro was bullish on that. Hopefully overcooked. There's still plenty of time for east (or god forbid west) trends to develop but op NWP is really locked in on a bit of an inland track the past few cycles. From a strictly #modelology standpoint, we're about at that time where some adjustments east would usually start showing up. GEFS mean has been too east for days now as many members have slp's seemingly making a run for Bermuda, either due to their different algo permutations or maybe convective feedback. Could be the ens mean ends up roughly correct but maybe for the 'wrong' reasons.

Thinking more Saturday am given Friday afternoon package is still 60 hrs out from gametime... But maybe...given its a holiday weekend for many. And impact looks to be high. And waiting till after 12Z runs tomorrow gives them 2 more model cycles to see what/if anything changes before hoisting the Black Flag.

The HP is retreating though...not a classic look for a hook low or something forced inland. At this point anyway...

GEFS have been a bit of a train wreck to this point. Too many members way out to sea, skewing the mean. Interesting to see if that tightens up. CMC ensembles looked tighter last night.

You're skating on thin ice pal.

That would be ideal for this forum. Minimal if any slotting and no mix/rain other than very lower HV...

H500 looks virtually identical thru hr 84. We'll see what the surface looks like...

I wouldn't fixate on the exact qpf but icon does show a "mega-band" right where we want it for the most part...for CNY. FWIW

Mine was probably the "Lindsey Storm" of 1969 in NYC. Under/un forecasted and caught everyone with their pants down. It's blamed for the NYC Mayor Lindsey losing re-election, IIRC, as NYC's snow removal was atrocious. I was in NNJ for that as a wee lad. We had some very solid snowstorms in late 60's / early 70's there. Than i moved to SE VA. Game Over other than the winter of 77-78 where the James and York Rivers froze down to Hampton Roads and we actually had snow cover for an extended period.