Syrmax

We'll see how the models play out over the next few runs but the globals indicate a decent hit for CNY and a major one for WNY. ENY on the fence. Given mid/upper level tracks I'm reasonably confident in 8-12" for SYR. We may need some lake assist on the backside to reach 12" though. NAM and RDPS could be onto something with problems with mid level warming about HR72 but not sure i'd get too worked up about that yet. They're still not in their wheelhouse.

I still think the models are struggling with the placement of the actual main slp. Some, including GFS have had multiple closed surface contours invcty of the actual L. So a bit of uncertainty there perhaps. But, this 'squirrley' slp track has appeared on numerous models and runs. So I dunno. I'm not going to try to invent an explanation.

12Z Euro interesting...everything looks really good for CNY but like other models, seems to have a reduced precip area passing thru CNY. I wonder if its more attributable to the intense banding to the North and west of this feature rather than a traditional dryslot, which seems to be depicted further S&E as you can see below. The mid/upper levels look great...stacked low from H850 up to H500 passing just to eastern side of CNY. The slp location at h72 also is located a tad west of where you would think it would be based on trajectory from the SE up into Canada...

That was maybe the one good point made in their recent tirade of a thread. Still finding it hard to believe that at least one of the major NWP op models doesn't go off the rails soon to add more confusion to the mix.

imagine Matt in the NE Forum. Buwaahaaa!

No need for personal attacks and vindictiveness here. When storms, or entire winters go against us we already know who to blame it on... cc: @TugHillMatt

Onondaga lake is closer. More toxicity too!

Yay! Go Team!

You were promised needles and plates.

Looked at text output for 12Z NAM....it has a warm layer at 800-850 mb (+4C) at hr 72. All other hours are subzero. 72 hr UVV is (+20.6!!) Ugh. KSYR gets 0.61" qpf up to that hr. After hr 72 another 0.43" falls for a total of 1.04". How much of that is PL? No idea but if i had to guess, if all snow this amt of qpf would be about 11-12" of snow minus a 3 hr period of PL...so i'd take off ~3" from snow totals. So maybe 8-10"? Per NAM that is.

yeah i haven't dug into the 12Z models (work) but the h7 and h85 low tracks look good for CNY...generically. NWP is insistent on dryslot effects though for CNY. Perhaps due to intense banding to the west which concentrates qpf? Not sure.

HeWhoShallNotBeNamed is usually pretty good with snowstorm forecasts and discusssions. I love it when he gets emotional and digs into a position that busts.

Yup, Euro big hit WNY/NNY/ONT/Lake Ontario. Slot issues for CNY similar to NAM. Decent hit for CNY though. Probably 8-12" here, not counting any lake enhancement on the ass end.

Euro running. Let's get this over with.

Snow+ 0.85" liquid from h75 to h84. No mix issues at all.

KW is the bomb. Loved listening to him on the way into work in am when he was on ROC NPR station. He was cancelled though, before being cancelled was a thing. I think the Marxists that run NPR couldn't tolerate him not gulping down ALL the global warming Kool Aid.

Just looked at 00Z NAM text output for KSYR... Between 78->84h 0.59" qpf. At hr 84 the warmest temp in the column is at 800mb, -0.6C and UVV is positive (sinking air -> slotted). So that would be 5-8" snow from 78-84 hrs b4 slotting a bit. Not sure after that.

Impressive. Fortunately this isn't i95 that would torch within minutes in that setup. THKs tell most of the story.

Here's 0Z NAM, 850/700 and 1000/850 Thickness at h84. Arguably the warmest model attm. Not really seeing a mix here in CNY. Refuced qpf yes with proximity to mid levels slot but these don't indicate PL/ZR for CNY. Edit: if its a strong slot, could see mix till it passes thru. But not in middle of CCB.

Grainy snow outside now. Looks like cold front eading on in.

Setup for ZR and even PL isn't right for CNY. If we slot, then maybe some if the mid levels pass right overhead but not in the CCB circulation on the NW side of the system. Esp with the temp profiles antecedent and in-storm.

Strong frontogensis signature for banding and location on 00Z GooFuS

Looked at model soundings for those spots, it's sleet. Seems unlikely given the slp and mid level tracks. But, plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture being thrown into the CCB circulation so brief mixing is maybe ???.

NAM gonna NAM. But i wouldn't 100% dismiss it either. Plenty of time for this to evolve.

That's a sleet profile but it's overcooked.