Syrmax

KBGM AFD Snip... Friday night is starting to show the hallmarks of an extremely cold night under Arctic high pressure. Though model guidance is already quite low for minimum temperatures, this is a situation in which guidance typically struggles to keep up. The atmospheric column will be extremely dry, to the point that model precipitable water value values are just three to six hundredths of an inch; it simply just does not ever get lower than that around here. This along with snow on the ground should promote ideal radiational cooling, and there is concern that the bottom could really fall out for temperatures. Our forecast has large majority of the area reaching well below zero; in many cases by double digits. This already skews below most guidance, but it should be noted that there is at least a chance for some locations to hit 20 below. The biggest point of uncertainty, is whether a system shooting well offshore the Midatlantic Coast, could manage to yield a thin veil of high cirrus towards the Poconos-Catskills along with a strong upper jet maximum zipping through. If so, that would at least somewhat hold back the radiational cooling for the southeastern zones. Winds under high pressure will be light/variable to calm, so wind chill per se is not the issue here compared to just the straight up frigid temperatures. Considering how cold the prior 24 hours will have already been, we could see frozen pipe issues in addition to the typical exposure risk posed by extreme cold, as well as further buildup of ice in the rivers.

No inch here. Another "heavy dusting", about 1/4"...#352 for the season. This is the business we've chosen.

You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze...

LOL. I see the NYG allegedly interested in talking with Dallas DC Quinn for HC position. Maybe having a GM first would be a good idea? Just spitballing here...

I've done the Cave. It's a fun experience. Highly recommend.

38F here. KSYZZLE also at 38F. The airport seems to track more closely with surrounding reports when it's windy and/or large scale temp advection is occurring. Just my general ob. I think i saw a stray flake and clouds look dark to my north where radar shows some returns attm, but dry otherwise. We shouldn't see much if any melt today, maybe some compaction with limited duration warmup and overcast conditions. Thinking 2-3" overnight.

Yeah the Nov 1950 "The Appalachian Storm" storm gets overlooked but it's pretty famous in synoptic record books. Its in the Kocin/Uccellini book. Vol II, Chpt 9, pp 345-354 of the hymnal.

"Everyone" was calling for an early start to winter. How'd that work out?

That's my perception also. Euro hasn't distinguished itself this season thusfar. Op GooFuS also beat the ensembles like the Bills v Patriots game with this last system.

Not sure how much fell after midnight at KSYZZLE. Don't think it was much as I didn't get anything of note and radar looked bleak.

I golfed last night (indoors) with a big trail rider and he had the same assessment for conditions...they need a better base in general, it's still thin in areas as the LES to-date has been compacting and not as widespread deep as one might imagine from the recent LES event up there.

I am at 35.6" for Season as of this a.m. 18.4" in January so far. There was only one legit single snowfall in Nov/Dec, ~5" LES, the rest was nickles and dimes. KSYZZLE has 30.0" as of this a.m.'s Daily Climo report with 16.3" in January to date.

Strongly Agree. Living in SE CT from 1984 to 2000 it was hard to buy a snowstorm without "issues". And the # of times the coastal front showed up to rocket us into the 40's or low 50s while 30 miles inland got pounded with snow were too many to mention. 1995/96 was the only really good winter in that stretch. Hell i had 5" of gruel & dryslot for the Storm O' Century in 1993 while west of the CT River got 18"+. Of course, since i left they get a Blizzard annually it seems.

That may play out but usually a storm or two eventually shows up over a 2 week stretch. No guarantee of course but we've done this drill before. The pattern doesn't exactly stink.

Yeah, we really got shafted overall. On the plus side I have about 7-8" of quality snowpack with the sleet that fell. Should withstand our local micro Sizzles pretty well.

Picked up virtually nothing here overnight (past midnight). Looked like whatever snow happened in CNY had an elevation component to it? That's what radar looked like anyway IIRC.

Interestingly, I think I robbed myself of some snowfall. I measured 3.5"/0.24" Liquid for all of yesterday in my designated spot. Seemed like more driving home last night. Sure enough, local Spotters reported 5.3 to 5.8" near me with lower ratios of 11-12:1. Didn't think there was enough wind / direction problem to create a shadow effect with house/treeline. Weird.

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough with my sarcasm. I understand all that. Personally I was hoping meso's were wrong but the 800-850mb layer was above zero and that worked out generally in both models. For this area.

No. I'll just wait for the NAM and RGEM inside 48. The rest is wanking.

I ad 2.5" of gruel last night. I didn't do an actual measurement for daytime hours but looked like 1.5" by eyeball. Maybe about 4" tonight. So maybe 8" total. Which was my over/under for this storm here.

I'd say 6 to 7" here. Total. No way it's 9 or 10".

Just got home. A solid 4-5" fresh down. Things way worse than the WSW from last night. Locally.

That's a downtown Syracuse thing also. I thought people were joking about it but it's real. Every year it seems someone gets bowled over. Models performed well with this storm. I'm looking for someone to blame for the Syracuse atrocity. I can think of only one reason why the snowbelts of South Carolina outperformed KSYR....the Curse of the New Bambino...

I was in DeWitt playing indoor golf. Now at Tullys in North Syracuse, or whatever town this is at Drivers Village. Slow going out there. Roads not horrible other than local where the doofuses have dumped salt and turned road into a slippery sludge. Cuz muh, safety.

0.0