Syrmax

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That's waaay off from the other models for 12z Sun...yikes. Would like to see the UK reconcile it's differences!

Ukie is the model of choice elsewhere.

The only real negative I can see if that it's still Tuesday, 4-4.5 days away and basically I dont think modeling can look any better for us for this setup.

14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Starting to lose sleep already as Ive been up all night tracking!  I know I'm nuts!

Yeah I think we all are starting to...that's the problem with forecasts like this basically a week ahead of time, you're exhausted by game time!

14 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I just posted the disc and both offices issued them.

Got it. I saw the KBUF AFD you posted but couldnt remember if KBGM issued one for here.

I dont recall any Blizzard Warnings issued for Onondaga County / Syracuse in the past 15 years. I could he wrong...

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Apparently everyone around these parts remember 93' otherwise 66' thats for around here not KROC so I don't know.

I think 1966, 1993 for synoptic and maybe Feb 2007 for LES (100" in a week storm) are benchmark storms. The LES was mainly up in Oswego county but was epic. I worked up there at the time and drove it every day.

I just saw Wolfies Euro parade. Wow. Probably over baked but wow.  Agree with LES...no closed h700 so it seems too juicy. But we'll take it.

10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Completely joking bro! Don't even know how to block someone, lol!

I thought you were gonna go postal on me!  I just woke up...xoxo.  is it snowing yet? 

5 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Do you know every time a potential system enters the pic, the first thing I do is block Syrmax, RLMAO, cause hes the biggest debbie downer there is and I dont want any negative posts from here on in, lol! Then as soon as it passes, I unblock him!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Dont be a f*cking weenie. It's not a good look.

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 3-4, 1994 and Jan 7-8, 1994 were both events that just got crunched by the PV confluence...in many other setups they would have been cutters. We haven't had a lot of events like that lately...a few years ago we did. 2/5/14 and even 2/2/15 were similar...though both were not nearly as strung out as this one is currently modeled.

Good memory. I recall Jan 1994 being a strung out sort of 2 part event. Or maybe they were more distinct and separate but there was a discernible lag between hits.   I’ve seen too many snowstorms and lake effect blitzes now to remember fine details. Other than I was in the hell hole of SECT for March 1993 and Jan 1996.  And yeah, these type of lee side systems have been a bit lacking (for northeast US snow) in recent years. 

Only 3 more days of model runs to go...  although it does look promising.  Being inside of h144 helps increase confidence in at least a 6” storm, unless there are major shifts in NWP over the next couple of days. 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he's def in a worse spot than Ray by a lot in this event....but I can easily see this pulling a '94 with that high position where it's no chance of warming the sfc past PYM or something. But who knows...there is def a chance we could get something a lot worse...esp for SE areas. Still 5-5.5 days out. This is barely even inside of clown range...that's how long we've been tracking it.

This does remind me a bit of 1994. Was a good dump for interior CT and north. I navigated I-91 in Hartford during it.  Storm was followed by “dangerous cold”...as per Brad Field at the time.  A coworker visiting from Sweden mocked us for weeks after we LOL’d.  It was the first time that I observed local media become completely embarrassing clown shows with weather events.

GFS shows a closed 700mb low forming on the lee side of the Rockies but it opens up as it moves east. So this thing looks to mainly tap a lot of gulf moisture and sling it north along the boundary the slp follows. So winds shouldn’t be much of an issue during the storm.  You can see the progression below.

As event firms up will need to look at model soundings to see if we can get best UVV and dendrite zone to align.  Kuchera probably shows high end potential given its incorporation of thermal profile in snow ratios but other factors have a say also.

this isn’t really a classic nor’easter...more of a lee side low that follows a thermal boundary ENE.

And wow, GEM caved...

Decent hit on 00z GFS...about 10-12”.  I wouldn’t expect much more due to progressive nature of the run. If this materializes.

00z GFS not a bad look for thurs night into Friday. Bit of an appetizer...2-4” across the upstate.

34 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I would say the core of the airmass over Canada is at least -40 C which is -40 F!

That would be so awesome! No math required!

13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

If I remember correctly Wolfie posted some 18z Euro runs a while back but your a cruel sick person for messing with our mental physche after the winter we've had so far and our(or at least mine)  fragile state of mind haha! 

I am here to throw gas on the fire of the board.

In all seriousness, not sure how comfy we should be at 5-6 days out being basically in/near the bullseye for a snowstorm.  But it looks groovy now 

I stand corrected! #Fakeweather

3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Is this a joke?

Got one.  I never joke.  Unless it's about 18Z Euro runs. Which don't exist.

17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So a miss???

Way out to sea. WSWs for Bermuda on 18Z Euro

18Z ECMWF hourlies are out. Takes storm out SE of the Benchmark. 

5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Cuse comes really close to mixing, actually I think it does mix for a time but if its more than 1hr I'd be surprised!

 

Agree. FV3 looks like taint for a bit at least.  It's also a big rainout for SNE.  Won't help calm the nerves there.   

Looks promising this week. But it's still Monday...everything still on the table. By Wed 12z it'll be time to get more excited, or not.  I'd stay away from the off hour gfs runs to preserve some semblance of sanity the next few days.. 

18 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It's the start of a trend and a push towards the euro of it being more S and E which obviously sucks for here. 

One data point is not a trend. Not saying one won't develop but one run...no.