Syrmax

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I hear ya. They are pretty obnoxious and rude. Got banned a couple times over there.

Its Tuesday...a long way to go with this pig.  Personally, I expect some model mayhem soon. We'll do alright in the end. The Lakes will provide.

Just now, tim123 said:

I take it you really don't like the other forums to the south and east

Nope. Mid Atl is fine. The rest can burn.

I'd gladly accept a changeover to rain here if it means a washout with 50s and a driving rain with massive flooding in SNE. But that's just me. 

00Z looks pretty good. Still on track for a major Snowstorm upstate.  2 more days of model runs to jerk everyone around. 

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean get excited. Its been a tough winter thus far and this looks like a really nice storm for the area...but id sell widepread 3ft kuchera amounts. 

I'd sell the ICON. Who developed that? Meteorologists?

4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This looks like the most ideal therm0 profile that I would choose for the heart of the event instead of the single digits and teens that a couple are suggesting but I know it won't even be close to this but one can dream, lol.  These temps would be ideal in every way and especially for snow growth as ratios would still be 15-20/1 so Id rather, mid 20's than mid teens but thats just me.

We will need to look at soundings as event draws near on Friday. The key to best snowgrowth, as you know, will lie with UVV and Denritic growth zone aligning. Even tomorrow and Thursday will be too soon. 

10 minutes ago, WNash said:

That’s not a bad thing. Some WFOs (*cough*BOSTON*cough*) throw up a blizzard warning several times a year for stuff we would laugh at.

That's kind of why I don't care to ever care to see a Blizzard Warning here. Or WSW due to Blizzard conditions.  KBOS has made it a joke. Congrats dumbasses 

7 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Lol. Just tying up the loose ends. 

I want the Ukie or some credible model to remain an outlier. To give hope to the true i95 weenie. Only to crush their dumbass hearts in its fist of pain.  

On 1/11/2019 at 7:28 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Restructuring, eliminated my Director position 25 years, the Research Directors position 35 yrs and my employee 25 yrs. 85 yrs of combined service.  Tough being thrown out to pasture at 62 years old.  Thank god my wife has insurance. On the job hunt.

Damn sorry to hear that. Come to Central NY. We have snow.

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Would be nice to see a nice hop NW on the 0z though. 

The last time anyone cared about the Ukie was back during the Cold War.

17 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'm seriously worried about the Ukie and I don't know why but I seriously am as its not l;ike the GEM or the NavGem, its the second best model out there as was stated earlier and it's on its own against 5 other models.  If it even takes a step towards the NW with tonight's 00Z suite then I will be much more confident of at least a high impact event but until that happens, I'll be worried.

Ukie is on it's own. Hasta la vista baby!

21 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I would think with setup sleet gets no farther north than a Bradford to syr line

I agree. Of course being a contrarian...I'll take the under.

Can we bet on snowstorms?

I'm trying to imagine if the Euro / Kuchera totals (40") materialized for Syracuse area followed by LES for a couple days. The mind boggles.

Too bad it's not Thurs or Friday...

85-113". Now that's a snowstorm!

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s fine. Are we seriously going to sweat every tick north and south? As long as we stay bouncing around in the general viscinity of PA- WVa we are looking good. 

Yes. It's what we do.

If the Ukie, Tropic Thunder, JMA and ICON models score a coup with this system, as is being suggested/wishcasted elsewhere, I think we will all go insane.

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Sounds like this guy was showing off his knowledge of sub oceanic features.

Probably a double major in Oceanography. The tell will be if we see the Laurentian Abyssal mentioned.

I know its serious when the Emperor Seamount  gets mentioned.

Just now, tim123 said:

The thing i like is the ensambles are tightly clustered. Not one way nw and one way south east. 

Agree. Overall there is unusually good model alignment this far in advance.  

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Probally starts at 15 to 1 ends as 25 to 1. Average 20 to 1 ratios

Was just doing back of the envelop math on Euro with Kuchera on SYR clown map totals.  16" snow at 10:1 is 1.6" liquid. To get 40" you need a 25:1 ratio. I could see storm ending as that but not the bulk of it.  

40. WTF

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Wow mixing all the way to southern daks

I thinks that's more the Hudson Valley effect. Warm noses just race up the valley. Doubt it really gets into ADKs  (based on this model run).

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such. 

That's a good point. Someone posted here yesterday about that...flying out of KBUF Sunday IIRC.  If you really have to travel I'd look at moving that up or back a day.. 

14 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I think the TV mets should be quite wary of talking totals this early...I would be, at least.

Probably true but the cat's out of the bag early on this one, everywhere.  I wouldnt talk totals till Thursday. Just in case.