Syrmax

Repost...this is 96 hr 00z GFS with Kuchera. Most of our synoptic snow is done by then..

0z NAM with Kuchera ratios, thru 84 hrs

Frankly, I didn’t see huge differences in 0Z vs 12z in terms of track. Qpf is lower in CNY/WNY, most likely due to whatever energy transfer is going on.   10:1 ratios still provide 8-12”...which is probably 12-15” with an expected higher ratio here.

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Just gonna leave this here...

That’s only through 240 hours. Shows 3 more synoptic and 3 more lake events after hour 240. This weekends event will be the kickoff to our winter finally getting started!


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What model? FV3?

For my $, tomorrow’s 12z and  0Z should settle the score as the storm will be w/in 48 hrs of arriving. At that point, any changes will be resulting more from actual system development vs model projections.

18Z FV3 keeps the fun machine going through the entire run.  If it’s not synoptic it’s plenty of cold, clippers and probably LES.

EPS mean track looks pretty good. Tucked in tight. Just don’t want to see it track out near the BM.

Not to look past the weekend system but 18Z FV3 throw a new wrinkle into next week...no idea if it’s credible but...for those needing their hope chest refilled after today’s modelology wobbles....

4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hmm yeah it does seem to be more wholly different. Gfs is faster. 

Agree that GFS isnt good with CAD but in this case it looks really tucked in. Dunno if that's right though.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just saw EPS, surprised at how far SE they want after such great consistency. Still think WSW for us is in order. This also sets the stage for the next storm the farther SE this storm goes the better chance we are in the prime zone for next 

What does one have to do with the other in this case? I saw that logic used elsewhere with tomorrow evening's system and the weekend storm, which will barely be aboard West Coast as Thursday system swings thru here. Bigger issue is speed, rate of development and interaction w/ UL energy swinging/pivoting SE from Canada. IMO.

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

It doesnt know how to cad properly 

Not buying that for this event. It's an slp placement issue. 

I have no idea what happens on the euro between 96 and 120 hrs but it has a 998 mb slp over So. VA at 96 and GFS has 994 mb in exact same spot 6 hrs earlier, accounting for 18Z vs 12z time differences.

By 120h Euro takes slp to Halifax while GFS is tucked inside that, from NYC to BOS to Eastport Maine track.

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Whiplash of emotions up in here

GFS hates SNE. Consistently wants to blowtorch them.  Dont know that it's right but I've seen that play out countless times in the 2 decades I lived there.  Not exactly uncharted territory.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Coast rains-we toss..

Looks like 1"-1.5" for all..

We Keep. 18Z GFS never wrong.

Are we switching teams and rooting for the ICON now?  Need a scorecard to keep this straight. 

I hate to use a tired phrase but the thurs and friday model runs should begin to firm up the picture as as this system gets aboard the west coast and better data sampling gets ingested to NWP.  The usual f*ckery probably awaits. 

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.”

There are no watches or advisories posted for this storm further west, yet.  Seems a tad early...

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Control run a little better then the OP..

If I recall correctly, that graphic looks very similar in placement to what we were seeing as a general consensus a few days ago, before it drifted N&W.  So basically I think we are back to status quo ante?

Just now, wolfie09 said:

We are now getting into range to view the euro 4x daily..

That's great. More chaos!

11 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Still a big hit, but not epic. Sharp precip cutoff as well. We really won't know the degree of phasing until the SW is sampled tomorrow evening. Anyone wanna comment on the synoptic setup changes per model run that would point to the degree of phasing (particularly the EC vs. FV3)?

Biggest changes/trends with Euro, is not less phasing as was suggested earlier here, but actually more phasing at a different time... as system approaches NE coast which generates larger qpf/colder solution.  Solutions last few days on GFS/FV3/EC had limited/no phasing w/ primary low at our lattitude, not significantly redeveloping until roughly the Maritimes.  A weak secondary low was shown on some model runs which generated an anafrontal look over NE as it scooted out NE.  This run looks like earlier redevelopment/phasing and resultant bigger snows/qpf for CNE up to Maritimes. It really has little to do with moisture riding into a cold dome, its the interaction up above...

We shall see.

10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Get out of here with that nonsense.  We don't need sun during January and February "aint nobody got time for dat"   All you closet summer lovers make me sick -   (i'm looking in your direction Buffaloweather)

Starting to snow now. Fixed!

The sun is out in downtown Syracuse. First time since Sunday. Looks good even though it wont last.

Model Synopsis from elsewhere. GFS = Toss. ICON = Mostly Toss.  FV3 = Toss. CMC= Mostly Toss.  Ukie = BUY BUY BUY (Best model evah).

And check out the follow on system for mid next week.  Looking much more wintry than a 60 degree rainout.

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Through 48 hours don't see much in way of changes. 

Agree.  Want to see Euro and ensembles. The rest of it is garbage.