Syrmax

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

These maps are all wrong...they show New England getting too much snow...

SNE south of I-90 is a big ? mark.   South coast of CT/RI/MA (I-95 corridor to Taunton) will probably roast and flood.  Interior...could be a mess or a decent hit.

8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

A normal Winter we'd be closing in on 50" but not this yr, but that may all change in the next week, or 2!

You've got to be near 50"...hell i am.  KSYR is within a couple inches of me at 47.2" thusfar this season.

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through January 16, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse have seen below normal seasonal snowfall. The weekend storm should do much to reduce the snowfall deficits in those cities. In fact, Albany, Rochester, and Syracuse could move above normal by the time the storm departs. Binghamton, which has received 38.8" snow to date (2.6" above normal) should move farther ahead of normal.

Good summary Don.  Looking forward to an ne.wx snowfall contest on this one.  I think there will be enough stations in play...

7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Not too much overall. Just interesting from a met standpoint. 

I think the Ukie has pretty much finished caving in to the Euro.  Maybe that's the "big" news?

Maybe its just me but i'm not seeing a significant difference between the 12z model runs and also in comparison to the small trends/perturbations that exist from each model's run to run.  Certainly not from a sensible weather standpoint.

1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Rinse repeat?

Looks more like a rinse...;)

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ugh. The NAM continues to squash the best snows to the south of the Tug and North Country.

That's always a risk with synoptic east coast systems. CNY is often on the western fringe of the sweet spot. WNY/NNY even moreso. 

15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

10 to 1...if 15 or 20 to one those numbers go up by 1 1/2 or 2. So KBUF goes from 9" to 13.5 or 18 and KSYR goes to 12" to 18 or 24".

Kuchera map with Euro should look special.

Just now, CNY_WX said:

I just had the Weather Channel on and they seem to be leaning heavily on the Euro. Almost seems like they want heavy snow to fall on Boston. Cantore mentioned 40 inches for Nashua, NH!

They especially, and the media in general, like the major cities to get walloped...ups the hysteria for ratings... Big snowfalls in flyover country...meh.

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro took the ukmet to the woodshed with this one lol

We’re not home yet...but yeah...

Great Jet structure. Right entrance region over NY will provide good vertical air ascent.

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This model hasn't jogged even a bit the last few runs, and I feel it has the best read on whats about to hop over the Rockies tonight, cause that energy is fierce for sure so we'll see I suppose!  Ive also compared its initialization time to the obs for that particular time and they were pretty spot on.  Tonights 00Z should put the nail in anyones doubt's for this upcoming event so good luck !

Surprised no weather warnings in Ohio, PA, Indiana etc for this system yet. Perhaps not wanting to confuse people with snow that falls later today and tonight.

7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Looking at the AFD this morning they mention the southerly track and are not concerned with it as plenty of energy will be found over WNY with an inverted trough crossing the area during Saturday night. Couple in the moisture from Lake Ontario and I believe we will all be quite satisfied come Sunday afternoon.

Agree.  I don’t see Buffalo getting advisory level snows by the time it’s over. This is a scenario where most of the KBUF area could use a jog NW as compared to model averages but really just as a modelology insurance policy, of sorts.

I have to rack out. Storm uncancel.  

Here was 12 z at h850 for comparison

00z Euro interesting. Low passes SE of Cape Cod but eastern LI, eastern Mass and RI are all above 0C at h850...there must be some center redevelopment going on between frames. Or a vicious Coastal Front...all too familiar.

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This should be very si,ilar to Novembers event but with much colder temps so we're in super duper shape I think Bri!

Probably...I think we are in great shape. 96 hr Euro does not look like it came west. Low passing just south of ACK. Probably good news for SNE. We’ll see what the qpf queen maps show.

00Z Euro 996mb over eastern TN at 72 vs 998 mb over RIC on 12z.

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Seriously though, Who TF has the nerve to complain about a 10-15" snowfall?  

That 12z Euro run Tuesday with all the green colors up here got everyone overamped.  Reality is probably going to be 1/2 of those values. Which is still a good storm.

I need to sleep but I see the Euro is out to 24. Hopefully it’s not slow.

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

00Z model of choice is NAV-GEM goodnight Irene!  Solid 00Z Suite from the American models and our new friend the German ICON!

I just looked at that...LOL. I don’t think I’ve ever seen NAVY model on the WEST side of forecast model spread. It usually has storms heading out to Bermuda and up to the Flemish Cap.

Eastern Mass...depending the model you look at, could be front end snow to 50 and raining, or an ice storm, or 20” of snow.  Enough to drive anyone mad.

GFS and esp FV3 really hate SNE...ice Storm!  Not sure how credible that is but it’s at least on the table. That would not be good.

For comparison. Here is GFS at 10:1...so if sh*tty snow growth strikes, this would be probably close to reality...still a good storm.

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

1.25" contour makes it to ksyr/krme/kuca on the ukmet..

If the so called outlier has that for CNY I think we’re in great shape for 12-18”