Syrmax

I've wasted way too many hours tracking this jackazz system when I could have been stock trading my azz off and making coin to throw at losers on the streets. SMH.  It's all a fugazi outside 48 hrs. Every single time.

7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Lol...winter 18-19 rolls on...snow and below zero and then a thaw the next day to screw it up. I thought we were going into a very cold pattern?

 

We are not headed into a cold pattern, other than transient. These zipperheads pushing SSWs and PV "fractures" are the same dopes running the Tropic Thunder model that the NYC and NE forums cling to like ticks on a zit, with Ben Stiller as Chief Programmer.

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Did you copy and paste this from Typhoon Tip in the NE forum? I understand about 30% of it.

There's nothing to understand.

00Z models usually jog south due to Froude value displacement and Gaussian distribution vectorized distributions. The NAM instantiates from millenial overwrite errors in the mid level subroutine call functions. That's the Tip.  Well documented in the literature.  Wait till 12Z! Wagons North.

:

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You mean when they have us down to 4 inches?

The last time the Canadian model got anything right was the Blizzard of '88.

Not tossing anything. I posted an important study in the NE forum.  I am become Satan the destroyer of worlds.

How 'bout that NAM?!

00Z NAM Wow!!

FYI, regarding 00Z NAM, recently came across an interesting study that analyzed NAM via Fourier time domain analysis in 156 global data series (essentially discrete events). Where Deutsche ICON and NAM coaligned at h200 within 48 hr instantations, given Z-Scores >0.9 and open channel Froude values <1.0, NAM outperformed power series Z by 0.95, with confidence levels of 0.98!.  (Fg) was assumed constant throughout the column in all instances, as was  the qAv product.  This found NAM thermal and slp placement far superior by 2 SD vs GFS and ECMWF determanistic Kronecker products.  Only 0.5 SD probabalistic with Sigma < 2 however the raw score null set was overly constrained so ...  Bottom line, setup here is perfect to push all your chips to the centre of the table on NAM. Seems crazy,  but true. - SPQR

NAM. Well that was Interesting. Still providing fun after all these years.

I think I'll go to the NYC and NE subs to understand why it can't be wrong.  brb.

46 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I haven't ventured over to the NE thread yet, how they holding up?  

It's not good. Even redtaggers engaging in a lot of  magical thinking.

15 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Whats ku method and why does it apply

Kuchera, in a nutshell, factors in temperature in determining ratios ( snow to liquid equivalent), versus a fixed 10:1 ratio. It has its limitations as it doesn't (i think) look at snow growth zone and upward velocity (lift) alignment, which matters for dendrite (snowflake) type.  So, basically, take qpf and plug in whatever ratio is expected (12:1 or up to 15:1 here) and get a swag at total snowfall. That doesnt account for banding either (or downsloping, etc).

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 

That ugly AF for NYC and SNE. But rationalizations will he provided.

2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I won't look at meso's until tomorrow as their not that helpful beyond 24-36hrs but they are amped for sure but to be expected.

Personally, I won't look at any model unless it gives us 18-24"+. #protip

Tonight's 00Z runs will be the first ones with our system ashore and "fully sampled."  Will be interested to see if any changes show up in 00Z or 12Z upcoming runs.

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

NYC must of been just added as was coastal CT and I cant for the life of me figure out why?

Maybe the Mets in their office are throwing everything else out except the Euro, lol?

They must have been reading the other subs here, and learned that ICON > GFS, Ukie has led the model field with this system, 1C temp variations are a trend and not model noise.

8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Thats a tough one for NYC folk, damn!

NWS OKX Bullish for change to rain and temps rising into 40s in and around NYC, NJ and southern CT counties.  Apparently they haven't tossed the GFS and FV3 as some others have.  

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Why isn't channel 9 showing Lake Enhancement along the South Shore?  Probably broad brushing for now until tomorrow perhaps.

That's Rochester territory.  Might as well be Rochester, Minnesota to their forecast.

18Z NAM cut back a bit on qpf in CNY it looks.  We toss.

That's what i'm talking about...

10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You mean thundersnow and an over the top theatrical production from Cantore, right?

Actually, more worried about them showing up and we get 7" of rice snow...;)

Ok, so we've seen a million model runs, there's good consistency, the players are on the field now, about the only thing I can see going wrong...Mike Seidel or Cantore show up in your location.

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s early, but what are the chances of a BLizzard Warning? I don’t pay attention to wind speed fcst. 

We are not in the KBOS WFO.  

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Rlmao

 

36hrs later, lol!

 

I'm not buying this scap at all

We Roast!

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

That...is a roasting oven for SNE.  Interesting.

Just now, cny rider said:

Exactly.

The only thing better than us getting a foot or more of snow is having it raining at the same time in Connecticut!

 

 

Mainly on Mt. Tolland.