Syrmax

This LES event looks like it will be disgustingly close to my location but be largely a miss to the north. Fulton gets a foot while we get flurries, if that. Sigh.

Ty may been in good shape for this!

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Wait until next year when Jeter gets in.  Cooperstown will be a zoo for that induction ceremony. Probably won’t be much better this year for Mo’s!

Rizzuto was the best. I was there for that.

16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

In other news

Rivera became the first player to be unanimously voted into the Hall, appearing on all 425 ballots

Just ugh. But well deserved. Our national nightmare is over.  #LGM. 

Per 3K NAM soundings...KSYR gets about 20 hours above freezing but max is 37-38F for about 6 hours or so with rain. Then a 4-6 hour window for postfrontal snow (~3").  Not ideal but won't be a large scale meltdown especially with a higher density snow depth in place.  Probably cut snow depth by a 1/4 - 1/3rd at worst.  Then we glacier. 

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its a great synoptic storm pattern for the interior i think. Lots of cold and a displayed but deformed pv. If you blocked everything up on the atlantic side youd probably have a storm track too far east for most of the forum. There is the occasional risk of warm ups and rain of course. 

We were all moaning and groaning about the modeled pattern 10 days ago, and how arid it looked...until this past weekend's storm showed up on modelling. 

Looks like a parade of clipper type systems as it stands now over next 10 days. Which wouldn't be bad.

A bit OT but if you can see it, the Super Bloody Tom Brady Wolf Moon eclipse has started.  

Go outside and Despair of the Lamentations to come...;)

visible here thru low lake effect clouds....

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

17.5 in KROC really?

13.4” at the actual KROC airport.

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

00Z this evening NNW winds kick in and aligned with ample RH and Omega so whoever get under whatever develops could in fact be better than what we just went through, lol!

Looks even better 3 hrs later, wow! Lapse rates throught the roof cap 7-8000K!  Snow growth the whole way down!

Cool sounding.  Only issue is, look where the SGZ is...practically on the deck.  Flakes produced in a narrow, low SGZ tend to be crappy needles and such, not decent dendrites. I think KBUF and KBGM notes this in AFDs earlier.

3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I'll never post another Kuchera garbage map so don't ever ask again, lol!  They almost never pan out thats why their called clown maps, for a reason!

I did take a few looks at model soundings prior to event but I didn’t pick out that snow growth would be so godawful. I had under 10:1 with zero mix.  This has bagged us before in synoptic storms and is usually a good reason to just stick with 10:1. Back in January 2005 we had a similar event (was a coastal low though) but similar temps during storm. Ended up around 12” but flake size was similarly small.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Precip amount for that locaton was 0.93"..

Ratio would be 15:1. Seems pretty high for this storm but whatevs. I’m not there.

Just measured another 1.5” as of 10 am (7a - 10a).  Seems low given the rates we’ve had but it’s windy also.  Storm total up to 10.3”. Crawling our way up. Not sure lake effect will amount to much here but we’ll see. 

I knew I should've snowblowed when I got up. Only my Siberian Husky wants to he outside.

Best snowfall of storm coming down right now. Maybe we crawl to 10" by the time it wraps up in a couple hours!

KBGM AFD noted low ratios but ascribed them to sleet mixing in...all the up to UCA. Wow. They didnt mention low ratios where it remained all snow though. This is why I'd hate to put out big snowfall numbers for any forecast, were I a met. Cuz rice snow is a thing.

Anyone notice Weather Underground has ruined Intellicast winter radar?  Sad.

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

That’s why I didn’t want to be a Debbie Downer last night but I’ve been through enough of these to sense when thing aren’t panning out the way we hoped. Actually your LE is pretty close to what the models were spitting out but a 8.7:1 ratio is what you would expect in a I95 storm not CNY at sub 10 degrees. 

Yeah it was evident last night. Once the best forcing seemed to head NE towards ENY and with the snow hole in west central NY, the writing was on the wall. There was no CSI banding anywhere in sight and frankly not sure why it should have been expected with a weak slp and basically an overrunning WAA situation.

8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I only measured 3.4 inches here between 12:30 AM and 7 AM giving me 9.2 for the storm so far. I honestly hope I can squeeze out at least another 3 inches to get me to a foot. I’m about to enter a break in the snow but the radar is still looking pretty good to the south around Ithaca. I’ll have a LE measurement as soon as the snow melts in the tube. 

Similar #s here. Officially calling this a bust.  Locally anyway. Ratios! Kuchera #epicfail

Just about Final storm numbers as of 7 am...

8.8"...1.01" Liquid. Ratio of 8.7:1

Maybe we to 10" but at 6 degrees...gonna be a struggle.

6pm 2.0" / 0.17" L  / 11.8:1

Midnight 3.0" / 0.43" / L 7.0:1

7 am 3.8" / 0.41" L / 9.3:1 

Total  8.8" / 1.01"L / 8.7:1

13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Did you see the lake effect band off Lake Michigan?  It extends almost the entire length of the lake and comes ashore over Chicago. 

That’s pretty cool. I was there in the northern suburbs of Chicago over Thanksgiving for my sons graduation from Navy boot camp in Waukegan.  Poor guys there now dealing with snow also.

KALB SN+ 8F, vis 0.2 miles

KGFL SN+ 4F, vis 0.2 miles

There goes the CNY major snowstorm. They deserve it though, that area has been screwed over a lot in the past decade plus.  We at least have LES to make up the difference.

Well, the good thing is that I don’t feel obligated to stay up and watch a good meso band dump, cuz there won’t be any here, just more rice snow for another 8:hours then we wrap up and really freeze! A bit disappointing given the time spent tracking this. Another lesson learned. 

There is a huge dryslot of sorts, not a real dryslot associated with slp, west of I-81 out towards western NY east of the Buffalo region. My best guess is it is downsloping related, off the Allegany Mt region in NW PA. This seems to be broad enough to be impinging all the way to I-81.  This will have a big impact on snowfall for the Genesee region to finger lakes.

its always something with these storms. You can get f*cked six different ways to Sunday (literally in this case) and never see half of them coming.  Unbelievable.

KROC will still do ok with lake enhancement with NE and then N winds but my location looks to be condemned to the lower end of predicted ranges (1 in 10 probability snowfall around 10”).  Sigh.

43 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So...we go from negative digits Monday to a rainstorm on Wednesday. This continues this winter's theme of snow getting water logged and nasty right after it has fallen.

I know it is a few days away...but right now models are in general agreement of rain all along the eastern seaboard.

Stupid.

KBGM notes that models haven’t yet picked up on widespread snowpack so they are expecting a more frozen outcome but I do think we flip to rain for at least part of the next system. Probably not a lot, but enough to make snowshoeing and x-country skiing conditions crappy.

Snowfall rate has increased but flake size still unimpressive. Per KBGM radar best reflectivity is being shunted east of I-81.  Albany should be in a good spot for once.  

Tempeerature stable at 17F.

Just did midnight measurement...5.0”, 0.60” liquid equivalent, storm total.

11am to 6pm: 2.0” and 0.17” melted. 11.8:1 ratio

6pm to Midnight:  3.0 and 0.43” melted. 6.9:1 ratio

Storm total:  5.0”, 0.60” melted. 8.3:1 ratio. 

Ratio seems low but I did a second snowfall measurement in front of house in driveway, pretty open and not drifted and also had 5.0”. So I am reasonably confident of the snowfall measurement. Ratio seems low but pretty sure I didn’t screw it up.