Syrmax

This has the look of a WAA thump and then mix, dry slot. I'd guess 4-6" for most, maybe 6-8" up near Tug area to north. Enhancement after?  Maybe a few inches up east of L.O. but that's about it. Wolfie and TugHillMatt may get 8-12" is my guess. Mostly a WWA event from a snow accum standpoint here. 

Take 'em down.  This WWA is a joke. Not even a 1/2". Just wow.  6" forecasted.  And that's why we call it fake snow...

KBGM revised map for tonite basically pushes the snow further north, as expected.  Still a sliver of 6" indicated IMBY and by CNY in Cicero, north of Syracuse and up into Oneida county.  This'll be a 1-4" here, mostly towards dawn or thereafter on sat.

38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Very rare to get this type of agreement lol

Those all jackpot my backyard or very close.  Usually ends up just north though.  We should get a solid 2-4" at least.

KBGM map. Unusually well coordinated with KBUF's snowfall map.  My PnC has 5" tonite and 3" tomorrow.  We'll see.

KBGM map. Microbullseye over Baldwinsville about 3 miles from here.  Close enough, if it works.

24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

NWS loves kfzy lol

 

They must know you've relocated and are taunting you!

5 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Don’t get too excited, it’s still a week out. 

The only thing I'm tracking is the status of my flight out to Arizona next Friday.  A few days of golf to get far away this miserable weather. Bring the Blowtorches!

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah still ripping pretty good...7.5" as of 630am..

 

Glad to see someone getting something out of this in CNY!

Golf weather returns next week. Rain and 50 degrees for a few days.  I'll take it. We will get Liverpool GC open for a February round soon.

7 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Looks like the Buffalo airport is getting blitzed right now. 1/16 mile visibility in heavy snow!  Are planes taking off and landing in that?

KBUF 301654Z 26019G30KT 1/16SM R23/1200V2200FT +SN BLSN VV012 M18/M21 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26030/1650 SLP135 P0000 T11781206

Definitely not VFR conditions, well below minimums.  Take off probably a bigger problem, not sure how you de-ice and remain de-iced in those conditions. Not sure what KBUF actual minimums are but i'd guess there's not much moving around now.  Even taxi-ing problematic.

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wind chill warning is for later today into tonight, when the core of the arctic air arrives and the winds increase. 

Ah, ok. We can defer heading to the bunkers and panicking till much later then.

Not bad  this morning. Total of 2.8" yesterday here north of SYR. No wind at all. The snow blowing was easy.  For there to be a wind chill warning, doesn't there have to be wind? Asking for a friend.

46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still ripping large parachutes, nearing 4" since late afternoon..

2.75" here. We may squeeze out 3". 

39 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Did it, oh ok then as I wasn't aware but I'd bet money we dint pass 100" this season so we'll see for sure!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Snowing in Syracuse.  Steady but not heavy. KSYR tracking close to normal for seasonal snowfall thusfar thanks to November. 

Looks like a 7-10 day break is upcoming though, other than some extra cold for a few days this week.

9 minutes ago, tim123 said:

This is different. Back door cold front models usually underdo cold from north east

There's no backdoor front next week. Its a mini torch. We will punch well into the 40s for 2 days with copious rain...again. Storm track is way west and awful in its inconsistency this season.

7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Thats being generous bro as I'm going with zip for tonight and as the front approaches tomorrow sn may get heavier and steadier for a time, but will be over in no time. almost like a CF picking up a band and taking it with it.

18Z NAM spits out ~0.2" liquid at KSYR...12Z GEM&GFS  had around 1/3"...so yeah at 11:1 we net about 2-4" total. "Lollipops" to 5" in the hills South of here. LOL

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Frozen lake doesn’t mean anything... 5 mile wide open patch of lake water was just enough to fire up a band that dropped 10-14” over central Erie county.
 

 

Good find. I remember that event. That's why I dont think you all near Buffalo will have much of an issue with frozen lake limitations with this event.

4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

We'll be in a virga storm real quick and its gonna need to precipitate quite a bit before saturation as we're sitting at 18F/1F, lots of wasted precip for sure!

Good point, was thinking that might be the case. It is dry. I'll go with 1/2 -3/4" by dawn here.

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

May be a classic south shore ice storm coming next week. Euro and gfs v3 have it

I saw indications of that but several days left for that to resolve. Models usually underdo the warm push so if next weeks system tracks where currently progged it'll probably be more liquid than ice with this cold shot rotating out.

13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few members who are disappointed for just getting 18" when they were forecasted to get 40, lol!

Cleveland is/was torching and rain, 39F. Sorta envious.  We need to get that up into CNY to get the roads and cars spic n span again, but no deal. Rice snow and cold for us!

My PnC is 4-8" thru Tuesday night. Possibly 5-9" if you include the possible 1" overnight.

I'll take the under.

1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

That's NEVER going to happen, NEVER ever!  I also think this LE that everyone is talking about is going to be falling into super dry dense air which just doesn't like RH.  We just went through this with the last event with the pixie-dust like snowfall.  It was dense for sure, but I think some are getting way ahead of themselves but to each his own as that's whats best about being different.

I think the LES will do better than pixie dust, especially if any multiple lake connection gets established. But yeah, you would figure such s dry air mass will limit things perhaps. Probably not too much though. Will be interesting to see unfold.

11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

RLMAO, just gets better and better, lol!

Maybe they are using a random snowfall map generator software program. Kind of like a random number generator?

Looks torchy and wet next week for CNY. Gotta start digging into the NE bag of rationalizations pretty soon...pressing HP, arctic domes, baroclinicity, never seen a track like that before, Siberian snowcover, etc.