Syrmax

24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This ones over guys..

Delta jinxed it..

Looks a bit like yesterday redux?

I came up with 6 2" snow and IP combined, which was  1.29" liquid when melted.  I think that's in the ballpark of what most models had for my area.

2 measurements, last evening at 7p and then at 7 am today.  Compacted it's more like 5" of hell.

Well that was an interesting storm...

A fresh 1.75" atop 4" of snow and a thick crust of ice in between. Like some sort of half azzed cake.  Total of 5.9" snow...6.2" including sleet. Still melting the snow gauge while I attempt to snowblow this mess...

Oh, 26F. Never did make it near freezing though I see KART is at 32.

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's actualy colder down that way then up here..

Weather underground showing mid 20's from the southern tug to pulaski.

Lower 20's down your way and lower 30's just south of downtown syracuse..Wierd lol

My guess is a CAD event ongoing down the Mohawk valley from the east and north. Wind barbs are due east on the diagram Southbuffalo posted.  I’ve seen it before but its not that common. KALB still at 19 degrees.  Although KSYR now at 24 as of 10pm. I am up to 23! So we are losing that signature now. Still raining though.

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Quite a battleground of temps this evening...




.

Even that is off by 5 degrees in CNY... if it's supposed to be current.  It has the 26F isotherm thru KSYR and we are at 21.

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

NWS must of heard my complaints lol

Took rain out the forecast added some snow accumulation. 

 

Tonight

Freezing rain and sleet before 11pm, then snow showers and sleet between 11pm and 1am, then snow showers after 1am. Low around 23. Breezy, with a southeast wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 6 to 11 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Plain Rain is a ridiculous forecast here. I just checked and we are actually at 21 degrees and raining pretty good.  If we do crack 32 the precip will have ended by then.

3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Temps just jump to 34...looks like a sharp temp drop over N Cayuga cty and east...

21 at SYR, 22 here and 23 at Fulton...meanwhile 36 at ROC and 28 at Watertown, KART. Quite a gradient.  A lot of wasted qpf today unfortunately.  Given WNY already peaked out for temps, I doubt we break above freezing here in CNY.  Channel 9 locally had us at 30 degrees by 7pm, which seemed absurd but that's what Teske was saying at 530pm...while it was still 18 degrees. 

Sleet has changed over to light ZR here. 22 degrees at 9pm.  4" total SN and IP today.

10 minutes ago, Vicarious said:

It's just my personal opinion but I think they are basically pressured into going higher with amounts after they  missed that blizzard which caused that huge accident on the 90 that at least 1 died in

I've wondered the same...from a CNY standpoint, if they went with rigid compliance to "criteria" and put up a WWA for 3-5" and some sleet...the public reaction would be muted...and you'd still have atrocious road and travel conditions. It's nuanced and I'd guess they won't overtly admit it.  Can't say I'd disagree with the intent...if that's the case. Of course us weenies would object. 

18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

They really are ass backwards sometimes though..

They took out snow overnight and put rain all the way into the tug..

Nam has snow by 1am..

Talk about whipsawed if that materializes.

3 minutes ago, WNash said:

You're off topic, I'm trying to be helpful. Unless you're telling Tug and everyone else to move out of the state, which is obviously not useful advice.

I didn't start the OT. And was just making a comment not offering advice. But I'll damn sure end it.

Just now, WNash said:

Ugh, sorry to hear that. File for UI benefits today, they're relatively generous in NY. And don't be reluctant to file for SNAP benefits, Medicaid, etc. There are many other useful programs in this state to use when bad luck hits you. It's a huge upside of living in NYS, as opposed to places like the southeast, where you get punished for misfortune.

There's also more jobs down there, unlike the rolling 50 year economic depression. Upstate NY is in...end of OT...

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Welp, my stint here on the Tug is looking brief. Just got told by my boss I am laid off indefinitely...and not looking good. Financial stress is a huge issue here.

Maybe I will get to experience a good LES band before I leave.

Damn.  Sorry to hear that.

1 minute ago, phoenixny said:

Can't remember the last time a SWFE gave us more than 5" before changeover.

Even the 9 in 10 chance snowmaps from NWS appear to have busted 50% low. Unless a few inches of backend snow rematerialize.

2 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Warm layer hauled ass.

It always does...

I wasn't seeing the big snow totals for this event given minimal backend snow.  It's a few hrs of WAA front end then quick changeover and a messy dryslot.  Even my 4-5" expectation was 50% too high...SMH.

Sleeting now in downtown SYR.  Snow over.  About 2, maybe 3" accum.

11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Yeah, thank God we're well North of the twin tiers 

So the faster advancement of the transition zone north will magically halt soon.  Good to know.

moderate snow downtown SYR right now.  Vis about 1/2-3/4 mile.  Looks like we are on track for 4-5"

From KBGM updated AFD:

Dual-pol radar depicts the mixed precipitation line entering
our southwestern forecast area at this time. The NamNest is
doing a good job with the changeover, and based on the latest
model output we are speeding up the changeover by 1-2 hours
across much of the I-81 corridor and areas northeastward.

The quicker changeover necessitated we lower the snowfall
amounts from the Twin Tiers southward.

Does anyone think this has a chance of verifying?  11" in Syracuse?  With no wraparound of any significance this looks overdone by a factor of almost 2.   It's going to snow for like 4 or 5 hours...and we're already almost an hour into it with no accumulation to speak of. 

Snowing steady downtown SYR. We were told we can leave at lunchtime. Which is right in the height of the storm. Itll be over by normal quitting time of 4pm. SMH.

First few flakes here on Rt 31 in Clay right now.

27 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Why did they close before it started?  I think a 2hr delay would of sufficed.

Actually, it will be far worse this afternoon. Obviously this a.m. nothing happening yet. So a 2 hr delay just guarantees everyone going home at height of storm.

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. 

I think that's right. I dont see any modeling with wraparound enhancement down here w/ primary low NW of us and minimal/late coastal development.  Maybe the Tug and points N&E get that.  We could pick up something extra with whatever LES develops after the synoptics pull away.  I see 5, maybe 6" here with 4-6 hrs of snow...then sleet ending as occasional ZR then RN-.  LES...who knows. Pencil in 1-2".

Updated KBGM snowmap... seems aggressive.

Warnings for all!  LOL Well, not quite all (WNY)