Syrmax

Take Kuchera and multiply by 2/3. Generally, a more accurate forecast that takes into account all sorts of things that usually subtract from ideal totals. Usually.

LOOOOOL. That's some great stuff Steve. Hits on virtually everything that happens. Nice to read something original and scathing on the internet again. Used to happen back in the day quite regularly before every.single.moron. discovered the joys of sh*tposting and reposting crap to remove all doubt as to their intelligence or maturity levels. Edit: i had forgotten about HECS, MECS etc., acronyms originally made popular by a certain hyperventilating met in the MA, now known as He Who Shall Not Be Named (HWSNBN).

I'd be interested in seeing that as it is also my perception, having followed a lot of storms over the past 30+ years.

NAM has that mix line right on my doorstep for a while. Here's to hoping the further NW models are just a bit too leftward...

KBGM's AFD sounds quite positive for Syracuse to Utica...6-9", expecting mostly frozen or all snow mon night into tuesday with possibly significant lake snows around the thruway corridor tues/wed

If that track materializes, I can see a warm nose, or boundry, making it's way up I-81. Most of KBGM's CWA would be a mix or even all rain down in PA.

I'm thinking if solutions converge by Sunday12z and Mon 00z runs it will make me a believer. Pretty much the only thing we'll see on saturday are take-the-football-away solutions and other such badness.

No idea why but those 2 small bands have same general look, orientation as last night. Picked about 3/4" to freshen things up.

Bring it. Of course, were this in 24 hrs vs 3 days out, I'd be a bit excited.

i see them fine...windows laptop and Android phone...no app.

is that a forecast for 6 days out? why would they attempt precision down to the tenths of an inch on a 3-6 day forecast? Just spitting out some random model output?

I caught the southwestern band...total of 3" IMBY. We had 0.75" from yesterday. Good start to 2019/20. It won't be a shutout.

Let's not get out over our ski tips on next Tuesday's system just yet. Today's 12Z runs look interesting but trended less impressive, something more akin to what we saw today...though if the CMC and EC are right we should get some decent NW flow LES if it bombs out over the GOM and New Brunswick area.

Agreed. Unreadable. I thought it was Typhoon Tip but this guy is from NJ and not MA, if the website/blog is to be believed. An exercise in mental masturbation. Pretty sure his/her use of many of these words is at least grammatically incorrect in many instances.

I think the icon had too much sauerkraut for dinner...

I checked my records the other day...in 2016 and 2018 we had 20" mixed synoptic and lake enhanced/effect events around Syracuse prior to Thanksgiving (around 15th-20th each time). And I agree, the Christmas week to New Years period has been mild more often than not over the past several years. For the record KSYR averages about 9" snow for November. For many years we were below normal but 2016&2018 made up for some of that.

But but but the NWS month ahead forecast promised us a balmy November. How can this be? Their CO2 algorithms must have blown a fuse.

Exactly! You've learned, like most of us, in the school of hard knocks. I've had to fix things myself after paying someone that did a poor job. Another piece of advice is to solicit bids and have signed contracts with partial payment milestones half up front for materials, maybe 25% at half done, etc. Depends on size and scope of job. Treat it like you are a business Project Manager (which we are with home projects). And, maybe most importantly, dont be afraid to stick your nose in, ask questions, and don't accept substandard work. Dont make a final payment until satisfied. My rule of thumb is, would I do a better job myself? If the answer is yes, then demand satisfaction. Any reputable contractor will work with you. And if they don't, well...dont make a final payment till they do.

I saw a Joe Bastardi tweet yday (today?) that the ECMWF has opened up its model images for public posting, with a few caveats, like you can't use them for financial gain and a couple others. So I suppose copyright restrictions still apply from PWSP's but the euro itself is fair public game now.

That def sucks, best of luck recovering costs. Having been a homeowner for over 2 decades now, I'd say contractors are maybe the biggest headache. Always keep your eyes and ears open regarding them, if for no other reason than for future reference. I've had more costly contractor fiascos than $4k, usually related to my ex-wife absolutely, positively needing some jack@ss project or another to be done. OTOH we have had some good experiences. A recurring theme with many contractor bad experiences that i hear about have their root in recommendations from friends or family members...

pretty windy IMBY this morning but my anemometer is on the blink so can't quantify...Based on the amount of banging i hear on the house (or don't right now), i'd say it was worse in the overnight hours...

That's an interesting call, as it is with a lot of LES. I'd say northern Phoenix probably gets the better LES when a band is hitting Fulton. Lots of variables with any given event though. The PHX school district sticks pretty far north from the town itself, which is why some snow days happen for school when conditions don't seem all that bad closer to the river. From what I recall (and Wolfie is probably more expert than i am), when Fulton gets hammered, it doesn't necessarily mean Phoenix will, though north of the town center might. As a thumb rule, mile for mile north of the river does best over the course of a winter. As you get further south from me, less so, though Liverpool, B'ville etc still get their fare share of LES events. A lot of the LES in my vicinity tends to be somewhat transient. We don't usually get the 12+ hour significant dumps as winds tend to veer and are less stable when pointed our way. So we get a lot of 3-8" events that last and hour to maybe 4 hours, which are generally manageable to get around in as snow removal around here is really good.

Decent banding with the coastal, has same banding signature as several major snowstorms in past years (Oneonta to Herkimer area).

I see you moved south! Yes we are not far apart. It's almost time to start praying for WNW flow.

Hello again to all. Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here. It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying. IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY.