Syrmax
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Everything posted by Syrmax
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Looking good in WNY. Enjoy, you all get short changed on a lot of coastals. We wont see much of anything here till well after midnight. Should make for a skanky commute.
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Still just light mix, and dryslotting, 27F. We are losing previous accumulation ~1.5", hour for hour! An inverse snowstorm at this point. A new concept to explore? (Snowstorm)^(-1)? We can go places with this, Chief.
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OT but anyone needing a good flick while they count the snowflakes (or snowflakes not falling), "The King" on NFLX is pretty solid.
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It's not much different up here. The "good" news is we get way more chances to have Lucy take the football away up here, as compared to i-95'ers. OTOH, lake effect (fake snow BTW) takes the sting out of the soul crushing nonsense. Until it fails us too, which it will given time.
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Yet Again.
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Mixed precip types here. Pretty much kitchen sink of everything, Snow grains, maybe PL, and ZR. Holding at 27F. Not getting 6-10" like this... A distinct air of Bust-o-Genesis is developing...
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Bit of a lull in precip rates around CNY and SYR. Bit of a popcorn snow dendrite type going on now.
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Its authorized for those that wish to publically humiliate themselves with old school weenie jargon.
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Its authorized for those that wish to publically humiliate themselves with old school weenie jargon.
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I see people spontaneously going into cryogenic freezes and shattering apart into millions of pieces. Why the NWS isnt hitting this threat harder is beyond me. Lives are at stake.
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Where is this mix you speak of? Steady snow which has picked up in "steadiness" and flake quality over the past hour. About 1/2 - 3/4" down. I'm near the county border though, not downtown.
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So I'll put my calls out. SYR 7" ART 11" ROC 10" (÷2 wherever Dave ends up) BUF 9" UCA 5" BGM 3" (NWS on a Hilltop)
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Storm cancel? Nothing going on here N of SYR. As usual.
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I see KBGM made some slight adjustment to it's likely snowfall map. Perhaps in deference to some of the Short Range models Wolfie was tormenting us with last night, which showed a stubborn amt of mux into the KSYR area and south. Fortunately, I live a bit north of KSYR and my coloration didn't change. So I can still endorse this new, cowardly, map action.
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Measured 0.04" liquid past 24 hrs and a Trace of snowfall overnight, which is maybe a good sign. No model had this being snow so early, here. CC: 96blizz
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NAM-3K Y U ha8 me bruh?
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That's a nice sounding. At this point, given broad NWP convergence on a consensus, i think that the one thing that can defeat us is the dreaded #ricesnow. Forecast soundings are the best way to detect that scourge.
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Roll Turds Roll. Go Bucks!
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Lock that biatch in. Good god the Giants stink.
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Right. That's what i suspected. It's more a guesstimate based on knowledge level and experience. It's not algo based. I see some NWS products that are graphically displayed in probabilities (snowfall etc.). I've wondered how these probabilities are determined.
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The probability game is where I get suspicious...having been involved in developing inputs to probabilistic methods. Highly sensitive to assumptions and input data sets. I have wondered how NWS comes up with these estimates. Bottom line is you can't ever really be "wrong" using probabalistic forecasts. In this case I wonder how they are determining there is less than a 50% chance of Warning criteria snow at this time.
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Hundreds will die!
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I think this one has more of a likelihood to tick S&E than N&W...we have a strengthening wave riding NE along a boundry that is pushing S&E. The slp isn't going to be particularly deep so I'd think the progress /setup of the frontal boundary will be more important as we won't have a 'bombing' slp to contend with.
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Kuchera is useful for seeing what an upper limit would look like if everything aligns.
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Guessing they will post watches after 12z runs are reviewed.
