Syrmax

Time for suicide watch yet?

Lock that biatch in.

KBGMs snowmaps continuing to be quite conservative. Of course, their forecast was smoked during the season's first storm so I can't say I blame them. Basically they have 4-8" for Syracuse area with only a 10% probability of higher. (BTW, lose the probability maps, or at least the 10 & 90% values...its bullsh*t handwaving, and statistical junk science, to put a probability value on such forecasts).

That right there is a classic snowfall distribution for many/most Northeast snowstorms from my past experience. The coastal I-95 plain gets little to nothing and heaviest snows bury the deep interior, not places like Hartford or White Plains. Let's hope a reversion to mean starts to occur going forward. I noticed JB still trying to claim Euro ens support for his 3-6" forecast for NYC, (which was made weeks/months ago of course). He'd be correct if he is including Orange & Rockland counties in his broad brush city forecast, which helps to create a fog of verification.

Just about every panel on that run jackpots CNY. If this turns out to be significantly wrong it would give me pause in thinking ensembles are significantly more informative than just looking at an op run.

Does that seem credible?

Ukie is a Wow! event for CNY. 0Z GEM ticked NW with precip shield also. Hope this is all still looking like this in 24 hrs. I kind of dont want to look at 12Z runs tomorrow as it can only get worse. No way I'm spending time with the off hour runs. Too much noise.

I'll start buying specific amounts once we get closer to the event. It's still 60+ hrs out. But at least there's decent consensus CNY should get at least a moderate snowstorm. ENY looks solid for a big hit. I'm supposed to be driving to Albany for work conference Monday morning. Looks like I'll be calling in for that instead.

Agree. I lived just north of Albany then, remember it well. Was a Miller B that we were all crapping our pants wouldnt deliver the goods right up till almost game time. But it did, 24" IMBY IIRC.

I think we've seen one in the past several years but I can't recall who made out best. I seem to recall CNY doing ok though.

Looks good for a solid 4-5" for Syr area, not including any lake effect later tues into wed..

No real wind in CNY, Syracuse area. A touch breezy but that's it. WNY can have their wind events.... Looks like it'll be another week or more before anything noteworthy shows up here.

Those look pretty good for CNY overall, much better than the individual 12Z op GFS panels i just looked at. Which Ensemble member is the op run?

Just thought I'd get people's blood pressure up.

Looks like a rainer incoming.

Really?

It's an almost subjective differentiation. I posted something here yesterday, where i indicated that after having kept track of LES vs real snow for a number of years, my locale had about 30-40% pure LES every season and maybe 10-20% of our seasonal totals were "lake enhanced". Its all a guesstimate because you could bin the "enhanced" snowfall in either category, or keep it separate. And, having a job and a life, I don't sit around parsing every single snowflake's origin. So, in the past I've pretty much lumped the "enhanced" snowfall into the synoptic bin until the system evolves into clear LES (e.g. synoptic support pulls away). Of the synoptic total i estimate that maybe 10-20% in any given year is lake enhanced. It's pretty rough admittedly but as a general rule of thumb i don't think it's unreasonable, based on experience. And that's for my locale...I can't speak for other areas other than i'd be surprised if any spot was getting something like 50 or 75% of its annual snowfall from "lake enhancement." But I wouldn't rule it out if someone was actually keeping a close track.

Her numbers pretty much match mine. Different area (BUF vs 'Cuse no. Burbs)...but they're not unreasonable, for a rule of thumb average for many of us.

Well I finally zero'd out my snowfall o.g. estimate, although we still have patches of snow here and there. Pretty impressive for early/mid November as I only had about 4" of snowfall with the last storm and 7" total for the month to date. So basically anything further this month gets my locale to average snowfall and likely BN monthly avg temp I don't think the next few weeks will be a total shutout for wintry precip but that -PNA forecast isn't a good sign, if it materializes for any length of time. Think SE ridge...its more of a problem further south though as we can oftentimes still Cobb something together up here even with unfavorable patterns.

Well, I'll say this and end it bc as we've seen in this thread, and elsewhere, intelligent convo re AGW, or rebranded as CC, is impossible and brings out the worst in everyone. It's a complex subject that doesn't lend itself to easy answers or solutions and has long since been subsumed in politics. Everyone is an expert on the subject and they all have hardened opinions, or more laughably, beliefs. Which is why I don't discuss it, or almost anything, online anymore and probably shouldnt have responded earlier. Back to tracking the next great White Whale.

For the most part no, with caveats. There have been well founded concerns expressed about data manipulation in s couple of instances however, by certain scientists. Having read both sides, I still think that's an open question. But the overall data, depending on your timeframe, show we have warmed in the industrial age. I don't think that's debatable. The literature on this subject over the past 30 years is however replete with examples of research that is directed in a particular way that doesn't always seem to rigorously conform with the scientific method. And its peer reviewed, which is even more disturbing. I think this is mainly a problem when you get further away from the climate guys and into peripheral subjects. As far as making pennies compared to private industry, that's true. But don't discount that in their world, continued access research funding is quite likely dependent on having the "right" conclusion to a study. This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. This isn't the first time where the politics inside of science distort, or are perceived to distort, conclusions.

My $0.02...the data shows that sfc temps have warmed. I don't think that's debatable. There are questions as to how much and concerns about data manipulation etc. but sfc has warmed a degree or two in last 100 yrs. Why that's happened, is theoretical. CO2 likely the biggest driver. Likely. Beyond that, and especially regarding "climate change" it's all speculation and a lot of bloviating. Anyone familiar with measurement uncertainty theory and the application of it in engineering / science, should instinctively sense that there is a whole lot of blah blah blah being oversold or misrepresented as actual scientific facts, for a variety of reasons and by people (including scientists) who are out of their depth.

I can't buy this. Undoubtedly because my a** is still chapped from the last bait n switch storm here in CNY...;)

You haven't met some of the scientists i know. At least at the bar.

The 3KM NAM is dead to me. I blame it in whole for last night's bustogenesis. 3.5" storm total as of 8 a.m.