Syrmax
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Everything posted by Syrmax
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Still all snow here in Clay/Bville...
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Moderate SN attm, was heavy for a while...measured 2.3" in front driveway, not bad for essentially starting accum at near 11 am. Some bright returns inbound from SW, will be interesting to see what that delivers.
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There's over an inch on the roads already, in Clay.
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My son flew back to get to his Navy base this morning at 6am out of KSYR. I was originally groaning a month ago when I heard the flight time (I'm not a 4 a.m. person) but as events transpired, was a good plan.
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This means Freak can have a proper snowstorm now.
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KBUF'S Aviation discussion does hit the freezing rain, sleet threat that could have a significant impact on airport ops...and there is a Travellers Advisory posted for inclement conditions on untreated surfaces. Started snowing around 1030 as I was finishing up electrical repairs on my neighbors horse fence. Good flake size almost since start. Yuge flakes right now after a brief period of smaller dendrites.
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Enjoy your Travellers Advisory! We'll keep you updated on the "real" storm.
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Yeah it's the mixing that I seem to recall is the killer of WAA slugs.
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So far things look to be on track. No snow here yet. Would be nice to get 4-6" with WAA Round 1. These usually seem to underperform but i don't think this will.
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KBGM has upped their game for this one. Totals bumped up. The 1/10 probablity is 21" at SYR. My final call ROC 7" BUF 2" SYR 9" BGM 13" ALB 17" Storm details: We Torch->We Slot->We Rice->We Fake. So it has always been, so shall it always be.
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We Torch.
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Looks like somethings on fire down in Jersey.
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I think only the GFS is showing some indication of mix with the front end here and that might be why it shows 20" of accum IMBY vs 14" of snow depth increase for the same period (out thru 60 hrs). Regardless, it looks like 4-6" on front end and at least that much for part 2.
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I'll take the 2.1" of qpf for 1,000 Alex.
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Probably overdone. I tried looking for evidence of sleet by looking at total snow depth change, and I think there's a few inches taken off for mix in CNY, WNY.
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SNE will not like 0Z ICON run, at least thru about 60H. Handles slp somewhat similar to NAM thru about 60 hrs. Machts nichts for us but still seems to rely on lumpy distributions of qpf. Maybe its elevation effects in the model.
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Gotta say, 00Z NAM looks fishy but mostly in dealing with the stalled low SE of New England. It could be right but looks like it loses the plot with slp and precip depiction/evolution.
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NAM 12k brings mix into SYR. I think this could hold down accumulations there and certainly at BGM if a few inches lost on front end.
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That's a Wolfie Special fo sho.
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You're in the eastern lake Ontario area for KBUF. Its flyover country for them. They figure it snows all the time there so what's the big deal? You can come down here to enjoy an actual winter storm.
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Freak will enjoy his Advisory and like it.
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KBUF forecast looking like U Michigan today, dUMb. Go Bucks! Buwahaaaa
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It has a green blob of 16-20" over me and Freak. Clearly, this is the model of choice.
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If it plays out like their Lake Effect headlines (and maps), you're golden.
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Classic R/S line in SNE and NJ
