Syrmax

Well, the critical thickness lines are sagging south now fortunately, as the secondary low forms and the primary fills. Earlier this afternoon the 1540 (850-700 THK) had made it's way north as far as central Oswego county and we flipped to IP/PL/SN mix around KSYR. As you can see now, its south of KSYR. So we should remain all snow from here on out around KSYR and points NW. This worked pretty well today as the 1300 line stayed south of KSYR but the 1540 line got north of here (warm layer aloft with cold at surface), hence we had frozen precip but not straight Snow. Anyone wanting to refresh their memory on p-types and thickness values, check THIS LINK out. If you don't know what Thickness is, well...hit the books. Or not.

Some bright returns down I-81 towards KBGM and Cortland NY. Looks like the mixed precip isn't done yet as KBGM lastest obs were 5 and 6 mile visibility...that's not SN with those returns and vis.

Was just going to post this...KALY 0.13 mi vis in SN+. Looks like they will jackpot. SN- here right now, vis 1-2 miles. Airport has 1.75 miles at most recent ob.

3? I have only 2 busted WSW's so far (assuming this one does, but the jury is still out).

We could get a foot or so, not impossible but i've been suspicious of a lot of modeling showing an extended period of what looks like light to moderate snow redeveloping and *somewhere* there will be some heavier blobs...doesn't even look like banding. That's what has me suspicious of more than 6-10". I'd like to see a pivoting of the WAA band to form a solid deformation band and explosive slp development. Instead, some other sort of magical processes, inverted trough, etc., will occur with a weakling slp somewhere SE of SNE to produce large snow amts... somewhere. It even has precip pulling SE as Monday grinds on. If we had clear lake enhancement i'd feel more confident. We'll see, they're all different.

No. 4-8" looks about right.

I was thinking about snowblowing this goop but its windy and frankly, i think we get another 3-4" of lighter density snow on top so not a problem. That's my theory anyway.

I can buy 7-8" total for storm. Other than that...No.

Well that was interesting. I went outside to check conditions (back to snow) and literally just saw the town plow clowns whack my mailbox. Is the B Team on for the holiday weekend??

Same here, it appears.

They should just discuss the next meaningless SW flow LES event they are seeing out on the 384 hr GFS and call it a day.

Just took a 3pm measurement. 3.5" of SN/IP on whiteboard. 0.60" liquid melted. That's a ratio of 0.58:1. Looks like GFS wins! LooooooL

northern Clay, almost PHX

Intellicast weather radar not having it's best day with p-type. I've often found it to be pretty good.

that's amazing. You're what, 15 miles WNW of me and we're just pinging, no ZR.

I'd rather taint then Dryslot, personally. At least its frozen precip. Back in my southern CT days, you had to fight for any frozen precip you could get. Back in the day. Since then they seem to jackpot routinely.

56 degrees in Cleveland, 41 out at Dunkirk NY at 2pm observations. Pretty good push of warm air at the surface as well as mid levels. We are hanging out at 24F and pinging away...

Is there a technical difference between PL and IP? I used to think there might be a difference based on exactly how the hydrometeor is formed, but can't remember. From a sensible standpoint there's not really a difference. Just wondering, while we admire the taint...

Almost has to taint when main SLP goes about 800 miles west of us. I don't care what models say. I had a sliver of hope we would hang on here looking at several models but they were all full of sh*t.

Pretty much 90% PL here now. Looks like the accumulation phase of Part 1 is over. After midnight it may change back and we'll see how the models do with Phase 2. Thusfar, the warmer ones have won, here. NWP QPF probably going to make sense for Part 1, likely near 0.5" liquid by the time Part 1 dies out.

i just peeked in. FOX graphics trying to show yardage marks is hurting my eyes. I need the Giants to lose out to protect their position in the Chase Young (Ohio St) sweepstakes. The rest of this team is a joke. Back to soccer.

How would we know? Constant commercials. That's why i enjoy soccer on tv better. I'll flip back to watching my Giants get decimated once the Bundesliga and Premier League matches wrap up for the day.

PL mixing in will likely hold down accums here to the lower end of the 4-6" NWS was advertising for No. Onondaga. As we are near 3", we'll probably make the low end, or come close, but this is why i never expect much more than 3-4" from a WAA "thump" as the NE weenies like to say. Almost always flips and you lose half the potential accumulation based solely on qpf.

KBGM Snip: 1045 AM Update...Felt it was prudent to upgrade Steuben county to a winter storm warning at this time as significant icing is ongoing and power outages are possible due to gusty east winds (and ice). Numerous reports of treacherous road conditions due to ice. This is a dangerous situation, travel is being severely impacted. Steuben county will also see 5-10 inches of snow tonight into Monday.

Update. Pounding snow in a driving wind. There are a few pingers mixed in but mostly snow. 2-3/4" snow down so far.