Syrmax

GEM looks much better than 00Z GFS, SLP heads toward STL and not MSP, and then on to CLE and BUF. Column stays colder as warm nose much further south. Probably some taint in SW NY and So. Tier but that's it. More of a 5-10" snowfall for most of CNY/WNY

We'll see what Euro brings but we need the system to not head from the lee of the Rockies towards MSP. Most NWP has been showing something roughly similar. That track and translation east has to be a 100-150 miles further south to get a major snowstorm here. Fortunately it's still Tues 00Z...and there is LES potential.

This is 2-5" from BUF to SYR. The Lake Effect behind it is where the action may be, if you're lucky enough to get under some of that.

That warm nose...could be the Destroyer of dreams for most of this forum. Need more improvements.

That includes Whatever falls Thursday also?

They should've cheated the old fashioned way. Using cameras and TV feeds is what did them in I suspect. At least Beltran didn't get suspended. Mets have enough self-inflicted problems to overcome every single year.

The biggest problem with the weekend snowstorm is that it's still only Monday...

That gives me pause about this system...we'll see how modelology evolves.

Pretty much spot on. SLP's and H850 lows heading west of here never stay all SN. Best case, which we have seen, is a few inches out front and then transition to mix and RN. If lucky, maybe the precip clears out and we're left with de minimus precip or dryslotting with temps in mid 30s. If you want some fantasist hope, just check out Bastardi's TWTR feed.

I hope Euro isn't right but it probably is. "Thump" snows generally struggle to achieve expectations. Seems max snowfall out of them is in 2-4" range. Which I suppose is a vast improvement from the past month's anemia.

Agreed. I had 0.25" rain yesterday and 0.11 the day before. A far cry from the flooding rains NWP showed a few days ago. Even friday I believe various models had our area around an inch or more of rain. Be glad this wasnt progged as a big snowstorm here cuz we would have all been ripsh*t over a big bust. I didnt see any snowfall reports from the entire midwest that supported the thousands of miles of Winter Storm Warnings that were issued. Weird system.

This is a pretty cool depiction of streamflows ...showing why NNY is getting ZR while further south roasts. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.03,41.72,3000/loc=-71.725,40.501

67F at KSYR midnight reading. 37F an hour or so north at KART, 32F at Potsdam. Only 43 at my house though. Tight gradient. This is fantastic. I may go out and idle my jeep overnight to help bring more global warming.

Meine hund. With his holiday hassenpfeffer. Don't get between a Siberian and his prey.

It's the "new normal" the past couple/few years. I'm sure there's a global warming, errrr climate change, errrr extreme weather explanation if we tighten down the tin foil hats enough... certainly couldn't be random variability or some sort of gaussian distribution.

Not a nightmare for here. we could use a good gullywasher to get rid of the salt encasement on everything. I picked up a Trace of snow yday IMBY, keeping "the snowpack" to sub 1"...while the new snowbelts of downtown Syracuse probably had 3-4" by my calibrated eyeball at work.

If you do enough error carried forward maybe it ends up with the correct solution in the end?

but I have it on good authority (25 years of reading assinine internet climate and meteorology-related posts) that the cold pressing arctic HP always wins out.

4" for the month of January? Explain.

We had Winter back in November and early Dec. We're ramping up now for the Spring lawn and garden season.

damn. We're down with the bottom feeders.

Similar here. Picked up 1/2" this a.m. and overnight. Its our 3rd or 4th day in a row with sub 1" accumulations. I can't even say that there's a solid inch on ground for snowcover. This is really the hard way to 100".

There are reports of marker flags in the enemy trenches. Queue up the movie Gallipoli to understand.

Just to Add to the Gloom "We looked back over the National Weather Service’s official hourly readings at Hancock International Airport since the new year rang in. Of the 131 readings so far, 128 of them, or 98%, showed the sky was covered with clouds or that it was raining, misting, snowing or just plain foggy. Observers at the airport jotted down just three “fair” readings, which indicate mostly clear skies. One of those readings came at 11 p.m. on New Year’s Day, leaving just two daylight hours with any real sun. Those came just after lunch time last Thursday." "In Syracuse, the cloudiest Upstate city, we see sunshine just 44% of the time the sun is over the horizon, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. That’s just slightly cloudier than Seattle, which gets 45% of available sunshine. Buffalo and Binghamton get 47% of available sunshine, and Rochester gets 48%. The sunniest – and we use the term loosely – major Upstate city is Albany, with 50%."

We Torch. And then Re-Torch.