Syrmax
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Everything posted by Syrmax
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You are right. I was in SECT. The only decent winter was 1995/96. The rest was forgettable shite. 1993 Superstorm....5" then slop and dryslot. My GF's place had 20" in West Hartford. Since I left in 2000, they have a Blizzard every year. I pray it rains there from December to April.
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Bottom line is where I lived most of my life, this place rocks for snow and winter weather. SE Virginia, northern NJ, north germany, and CT...all suck azz for snow...
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I hope we dont get f&cked with single bands SW of us. When I first moved here we seemed to get those but last fee years not so much. WNW flow is either up by Wolfie and the toothless people or down by the rich f@ckers near Skaneatales. #sad
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It was. And that's all we have now since YOU ruined it all!
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Didn't say it was. Context my friend...just reminiscing...
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Yes, we know that. Not really comparable but it was front end "thumpish"...
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2007 or 2008? Edit: 2007
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That was a good storm and you're right, we got thumped on front end pretty good. I think I ended up near 20"...the backend outperformed the front end. Of note, my kids had school the day of the front end. They were released early but I had to laugh...the forecast was gruesome but the school system (Phoenix) was clearly gaming the snow days with that one as they cancelled school the 2nd day.
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THIS: "...Accumulations of snow in warm advection are always tricky. The SLRs are virtually always overestimated in the multi-model blends and the Cobb method likewise yields ratios that are too high most of the time..." This is why relying on NWP output for WAA "Thump" snow is a loser most of the time, other than for brief periods (hour or two near onset).
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Better hope we're the KC Chiefs and not the Bills. (Cheap shot but I had to take it cuz our team is the new Bills).
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I'll see your 3" and raise it another 4" IMBY. 7" total by Sunday 8 a.m. (doubt I'll be up at 7a on a weekend )
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Saw that. GFS back to a just offshore coastal track and the thermal profiles look more like what one would expect. Over the past few days system has looked funky although it has had the storm with an inland track. Something to keep an eye on while some of us await our mixed precip events to start over the next few days.
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Problem is that big green area translates east. Seen a fair amount of modeling that seems to show a heavier precip "band" up in that general area of NY so you may be good there as it should be mostly/all SN. Down here in South Beach we will flip for the last several hours, with lower precip rates fortunately. I think.
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good discussion. Throw it down Bruhs.
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I think I'll end up with a foot of snow by next Wednesday but it'll come 3" at a time... Weekend system looks about as I expected, 6-8 hours of snow at 1/2 - 3/4" per hr rates then rain and dryslotting slop followed by a few inches of Lake snow late sunday into Monday. And we do it all over again next weekend! Better than the last 4 weeks...
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I hope it gets so cold and arid that people drop in the streets from nosebleeds. Another global warming data point
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Had to think that was coming. They did him a favor. Have to pay him and he won't have to endure waiting for the hangman...
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It's a place where "toothbrush" applies.
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Well Jim Teske (WSYR) just put out 1-4" for Thursday (loli's of 4-6" where nobody lives...wolfie) and Rain Snow mix in mid/upper 30s Sat. Seems spot on.
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I avert my eyes whenever possible.
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Agreed. If we can squeak out 2-3" on backside of Thurs storm and another 2-5" on weekend before any further LE, it'll look more like winter. I don't like having to rely on Sunday's backend of lake enhancement or whatever...but we can nickel and dime our way to decent totals by mid next week.
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Modeling has been generally consistent with this aspect i think. A primary heading west of here, or overhead is never good news, i don't care what 4 or 5 day winter precip panels show. Fortunately, it's only Tuesday. Things can evolve differently.
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Every model has that precip minima over the usual zone of death in the western Finger lakes south of ROC.
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The last KBGM AFD that I read was less sanguine about the weekend system. Kind of more what I would expect this far out. The aviation terminal part does mention rain or snow affecting terminals...
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Been eyeing that storm also. Long way out and GFS thermal profile is AFU ahead of the panel you posted. Too warm. Verbatim its rain to snow on the snow/ice display but not seeing rain with the 540 line well south of NY...
