Syrmax

You've seen some of the posts I take it?

No. We need the Bermuda high. Spring is coming. Pool weather!

Too many people here take this shit too seriously. just stunning stupidty.

No they're not. Its #Losertown. we will sack them for a big loss.

That looks pretty juicy.

I gotta wonder who didn't vote for him. There's always one in every crowd.... Is A-Fraud on the HOF voting list?

I was at Oktoberfest in Munich last fall. It's the NY State Fair on steroids.

KBGM AFD snip this afternoon: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Main concern this time period is the evolution of the next storm system and its impacts on our forecast area. Models all show a closed upper level low moving into Indiana and Ohio Friday night and then tracking across southern PA/West Virginia and Virginia/Maryland/Delaware and NJ Saturday and then to off the New England coast by Sunday. This upper level low brings a low-level cyclone up to Ohio where is occludes and goes barotropic. The baroclinic zone shifts to the coast on Saturday and thisupper level low as it moves east will eventually spin up another low-level cyclone with baroclinic development. Models continue to have track that is south and east of northeast PA andcentral NY meaning a higher chance for mainly snow. We stillcould see some boundary layer warmth Saturday during the day which could lead to mixed rain and snow especially in our valleys. By Saturday night precipitation should be all snow. We will continue with mainly chance POPs Friday night, Likely Saturday and chance to likely POPs for snow showers Sunday and flurries and scattered snow showers into Monday begin this system. The main question is how much QPF will our forecast area get. It is way too early to begin snow amounts. There is a lot of bust potential with this storm even if its track remains similar. The issue is how quickly will the coastal low develop. If it is delayed our area will just get mainly light to moderate snow with the heaviest snow east of our area. Basically we would have an upper level low with limited moisture and a minimum between the Ohio Valley low and the coastal low. The 12z GFS scenario develops the coastal low more rapidly and hence would be a decent snowstorm for our area especially Saturday night. But in these transfer lows we could easily miss out if the coastal low doesn`t take off in time. So for now we will continue to mention the possibility of a winter storm this weekend in our Hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. us weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday.

Good roundup of what's going on there. Surprisingly, no hysteria about climate change, extreme weather, end of the world, etc. US media work that angle on every run of the mill system they cover.

Looking at the next two weeks of models, CNY has a decent chance of achieving normal monthly snowfall. That wouldnt be horrible, here.

Gonna see a lot of wobbles this week. H500 deepens a little later on 0Z GFS. That's the main difference from last couple of runs.

Wow I know where that is. Was this guy driving 55 or something?

I wish that 18Z run would verify. A lot of us would finally STFU about a lame winter that's for godam sure.

Too bad the really good stuff on this GFS run is in the fantasy range, and it's the 18Z GFS...that said, at least this may keep people from jumping off a ledge, for the time being.

Not to worry. It's a special subroutine i had a friend who owes me plug into the GFS algorithm for synoptic systems.

Agreed. Came in two days. Plus we had 2-3" last thursday. Not a bad way to end the month long shutout.

0Z & 6Z GFS look good for next weekend. I'm sure it'll change but we look to be in a more active period over the next two weeks. I don't know that any of these systems will be "clean" but for those of us that don't rely on lake effect it looks promising. Hopefully the Euro comes around.

KSYR is at 45.5" total for the season, which is -17 8". Basically we're missing 2 or 3 decent storms. About what you would expect for a month long period from mid Dec to mid Jan where we received almost nothing. With a season average of about 125" it's going to be a hard pull to get to average, but not impossible. We are already close to the 2011/12 or was it (2014/15?) season total snowfall. Both winters stunk but one was particularly lame. If we get average monthly snowfall for Mar & Apr we should finish around 100". Which wouldn't be horrible, or outside of typical variability.

I was initially surprised by that also but I've noticed the daily mins occur right around sunrise or even a touch later. Like around sunrise +/- and hour. Esp with calm conditions, good radiational cooling.

Gotta say, hope everyone liked this last storm cuz GFS has a parade of similar looking outcomes through the whole 0Z run. At least 3 of them. Broken record of a run.

Its picking up now. Maybe we can get it to last for a few hours while football is on.

Decent track. Too bad Euro's qpf covers 10 acres of land.

PnC here looks a bit much. 5" today and 2" tonight...we had 3" earlier but not seeing that doubling by 7 a.m.

YouTube account upload feature warmed up and waiting....

That's what I'm talking about!