Syrmax

He loves cold and snow. 80 degree days not so much. Here he is noshing on a squirrel kill. As if I don't feed him enough. #chowhound.

Just did my daily measurement at 815a after getting work stuff going (from home). 3.0" snow and a total of 0.75" liquid melted. So I'm guessing we had about 0.4" of rain/ZR. There was lot of slush underneath the snow on my deck. The rain gauge was encased in ice also from early this a.m. Someone wanted a photo. Here you go...

KBGM upping totals and expanding Warnings south and east in their CWA. Not sure why so late. Did they just start looking at models other than the GFS? This shouldnt be allowed. Can never verify their accuracy as their forecasts continually change. IMO they roll with the 6-9" call for SYR when Warnings were first issued.

Seems like banding often tends to set up N&W of where modeling shows it pre-storm along with axis of heaviest qpf. But we'll see. Will be fun to observe.

That's nasty. And a covering of snow on top after tomorrow. One of the few times the salt trucks will be of great value, other than for causing traffic tie ups tooling along at 35 mph on highways.

So it will snow for 3 hours in some places and that's it? Got it. Just trying to match that up with forecast map.

10:1 net. Higher later in storm.

Updates not allowed. They made their call. That's it from them.

Jim Teske on WSYR 9 (who we like) at 6pm newscast had 4-8" for SyR and SE. 8-12" N&W, basically a SW/NE line thru CNY. Though...he said he is likely to move that line further SE to include SYR proper based on "new" modeling. I'm assuming that's the 12Z suite of models. Hard to argue with that.

Prohibited language alert!! Danger Will Robinson...Danger.

We're melting!!

RGEM a Paulie special. Hope it pans out.

Steady actual rain downtown SYR now. Temp at 32 -33 degrees throughout area. No ice forming. This will chew into storm totals if looking at total qpf.

Hancock field had 31 degrees as of noon but downtown i don't see any ice forming on cars, signs, in the steady drizzle, so perhaps the urban heat island is helping us avoid frozen windshield wipers. For now...

It's the thought that counts here.

Nice dry hole on GFS for Wolfie. That's some next level trolling by GooFuS.

That's a close effing call for Syracuse area. I have a feeling that I'll be glad to he a bit NW of the city...will be able to smell the taint if that run panned out.

I could have explained this further. Euro (at least one run that an unnamed Met posted with GFS) had a solid stripe of about 6-12" (looked like banding) pretty much in line with GFS placement. Implication was go with Euro, usually a good call. GFS was much more anemic. I looked at CoCoRAHS and totals looked to be about 3-5" in that area. The post was a Euro/GFS comparison for the system. I'm sure Euro had better H500 Z scores but from a sensible wx standpoint... I only mention it as even the Euro blows it once in a while.

I'll say this, for the system that affected TX and OK a couple days ago, the Euro was trounced by GFS for snowfall. Both had placement / axis of snowfall about right but EC was about 2x too high with snowfall, based on eyeballing CoCoRaHS reporting. It was a fail.

This is obviously a qualitative assessment on my behalf but I still see the loopiest solutions on 6 & 18Z as a general observation. That hasn't changed in 30 years of observing model outputs. Maybe it's a just function of model uncertainty run-to-run and it just becomes more visible the more outputs you look at.

Another modelology axiom...stop looking at 6 and 18Z runs. Often GIGO and def TMI.

I think 6-10" for most of CNY is a reasonable call. Banding areas probably 12-15". Where it taints 4-8". There's good model consensus. Not sure what that AFD was talking about regarding that.

3.8" snow here, and a tidy 0.37" liquid equivalent. 10:1 basically for Round 1.

Not sure what they're looking at. Noone uses the GFS for anything but wiping their ass. Of course NWS and PWSP's will change their forecasts so many times that verification becomes impossible.

Bedtime here. We have about 2" down already per my calibrated eyeball. 1 am and 2 am vis at Hancock Field is 0.5 mi. That's close to 1" per hour over past 2 hours (since it started).