Syrmax

This is pretty much a non event by us. A few inches maybe, at some point.

Better book a flight soon! (I just paid for my hotels for my Italy trip in late april a week ago...and now Corona is exploding there...).

Kinda nice to be sitting this one out.

00Z Euro looks good for all of WNY and the 50 or 60 residents of the of the Tug area.

Latest SREF plumes for KSYR. Looks like a couple inches with the CFROPA and a few inches of LES. Total of 5-6" based on the mean. Still continues to trend up each run

Maybe didn't make the list as the snowfall occurred overnight and was accounted for over 2 calendar days? That's why a lot of why records "miss" some actual storms?

Yeah but...GFS...

I played around with SREF plumes for KSYR using latest runs...took out the 2 high outliers. Looks like 5" mean FWIW. Trend has been getting better each run.

Not gonna lie, this near 50 degree temps the past two days feel good.

Hard to get too excited with this event. Euro has been a consistent Debbie Downer for most of CNY for days. The LES looks like it will be centered just north of Matt and I so expectations of no more than a sloppy couple of inches here with the Sou'Easter....

Anchors Aweigh!

Disappointing again in aggregate. Looks like other than LES late next week, we will wrap up Feb with whatever snow totals we have now. Leaves us a 2 or 3 week window in March for something decent...

Ever since Matt started making his way back from FL models have trended badly. Coincidence? I think not.

Weird indeed. It's the recurrent theme of this winter. Mean trough too far west. Earlier runs had the lead slp weakening but generally being progressive, allowing the secondary, or follow on wave, to develop further east. Now, it's a shite system where we have to rely on LES scraps.

Congrats Green Bay.

Well, what's not going to change is the lack of cold air available till the system has passed by. If thermals suck for what looks to be a best case HV track, I dont see this being a major snow producer unless wraparound actually happens, which is usually tricky. Let's go Lake Effect!

12Z Euro washes out the first wave next week and then brings follow on primary sfc low up over WNY. It's almost a total bust synoptically for snow for this forum. Although...decent LES signature for a couple days as the ULL spins over southern Quebec.

00Z runs look fugly but this is still 5-6 days out. The lead s/w looks to be a rainmaker as *shocked face* there's insufficient cold air around to keep precip frozen. Then the main course development is up for grabs. Plenty of time for that to change so maybe it's good that it looks as wet as white right now.

Road trip to Ottawa?

That's ridiculous. Gotta sell clicks though...

We have the Mets AAA team here now. So if I haven't got my fill of aggravation on tv, I can head down to the park and watch their future players buggering things up. Actually, they haven't been bad. Fortunately, or not, I follow English and German football (soccer) so the winter is never bereft of drama. Heja BVB!

Metsfan is a bold screen name. My first Mets game was July 30, 1969 as a wee kid. They lost a DH to the Houston Astros, 16-3 and 11-5 in the nightcap. Which was outrageous back then. The Stros hit not 1 but 2 Grand Slams in the 11 run 9th inning of game 1. Must have been stealing signs back then too. The second game featured Gil Hodges walking slowly from the dugout to LF to pull Cleon Jones for lack of effort in the middle of a 10 run inning. Who knew they would become the Miracle Mets after that day? I naturally became a Mets fan for life after this display of Metsian ineptitude. The struggle is real.

I ended with a vaguely disappointing 7-3/4" of snow yesterday. I know this sounds grotesque but it was looking good for a run at a foot or more. But the band wobbled and then weakened. Which is typical of WNW flow events. My area was near the jackpot, about 5-10 miles to my NW, up near Fulton, closer to the lake, had about 10-11".

Was lurking in this thread and others as things have quieted down for now. I am still scarred from having spent most of my first 38 years along the I-95 corridor (VA, NJ, LI, CT). Living downwind of the Lake Ontario (or Erie) snow machine the past 15 years has been mostly a dream. Lake effect (even though the best is usually just to my north) is usually a decent Plan B when the synoptic Plan A fails. This winter looks like one of the epic fails down along the coast. But I think you all will get thrown a bone or two before this pig is done. Maybe even a bone with meat on it.

I can't believe I'm doing this but 00Z Canadian has a beastly looking snowstorm next week 6-7 days out. Its evolution at this point looks a little more credible than GFS FWIW. Something we will undoubtedly be getting sucked into tracking soon. I just hope that if its gonna fail, it shows its hand early (like this weekend)